松潘—甘孜块体边缘强震的余震时空特征对比研究及其意义

松潘—甘孜块体位于青藏高原北部,是认识高原扩展的重要区域.近年来,该块体不同边缘强震频发（2008年四川汶川MW7.9地震、2010年青海玉树MW6.9地震、2013年四川芦山MW6.6地震、2017年四川九寨沟MW6.5地震、2021年青海玛多MW7.4地震）,但针对这些强震的余震特征比较的研究鲜见,忽略了"从震源演化的角度揭示块体不同位置结构的差异".本文依据中国地震台网中心13年的地震观测数据（2008-01-01—2020-11-30）,采用双差定位方法（HypoDD）开展松潘—甘孜块体近年不同强震的余震演化研究.研究表明处于块体不同位置的余震序列时空特征存在差异：（1）块体南缘的玉树地震有前震事件,其余均未观测到前震;（2）块体南缘的玉树地震与东缘的汶川、芦山地震均激发共轭断裂,其余则未激发;（3）汶川、芦山地震与其他地震的双侧破裂形态不同,为单侧破裂;（4）余震分布密集区位于同震滑移极值区的周缘.结合该区的构造背景与震源时空分布特征,我们指出块体不同位置的余震时空分布主要受到块体所处的局部结构的约束：龙门山断裂带与玉树断裂带较块体北缘的东昆仑断裂带,粗糙度与非均匀度更高;龙门山断裂带东西两侧壳内物质的物性差异较其余断裂带更强;四川盆地具有西倾到松潘—甘孜壳内下方的几何形态、而松潘—甘孜块体的北边界与南边界主要为南北两侧块体拼贴的接触关系.未来,基于深度学习的余震识别研究是定量获取断层物质属性、几何形态、块体边缘接触关系的重要途径.     

祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年人工增雨试验效果检验评估

使用祁连山北坡中段和东段5—9月面雨量和水文资料,运用非随机人工增雨试验中的序列检验、区域对比、区域双比和区域回归等4种数理统计效果检验评估方法,对2010—2020年在祁连山北坡东段开展的人工增雨作业效果进行检验评估。试验发现：4种效果检验评估方法均证明祁连山北坡东段开展的人工增雨试验为正效果,其中区域对比、区域双比、区域历史回归试验效果检验通过了显著性水平α≤0.10的显著性检验;通过对4种评估检验方法分析,区域历史回归试验方法使用的样本容量较大,避免了人为选择历史相似天气容易引入众多主观偏倚和争议的操作程序,产生的假效果相比其他试验最小、功效最高,可作为最终评估结果,祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年平均相对人工增雨效果为26%。进一步评估了祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年开展大规模人工增雨对石羊河流域生态环境改善的影响,分析发现：石羊河年平均径流量增加了124.6%、民勤蔡旗断面年平均下泄水量增加了124.3%、民勤盆地地下水位上升了2.46 m,干涸近半个世纪的青土湖水域面积持续增大。     

球载式下投国产北斗探空仪测风性能评估

基于球载式下投北斗探空仪测风观测试验,建立了针对下投式的测风试验评估方法.试验结果表明上升段北斗测风的准确度接近RS92探空仪的探测准确度要求,两者一致性较好;下降段RS92测风误差基本上与上升段的属于同一量级水平,下降初期测风数据在使用时需要做预处理或者有效控制;下降段BD探空仪测风误差与下降段RS92的基本相当,除了球炸初期外,基本上接近WMO的测量要求,此外初期的急速下降对导航定位测风提出了更高的技术要求.整体而言,球载式下投探空观测在时间上可以实现对原有的1次探空进行加密,在空间上可以增加1个区域的探测,并为对现有探空站网分布进行合理优化提供依据,具有良好的应用前景.     

1960年以来雄安新区平均和极端气温变化（英文）

如何建设雄安新区是时下重要需求,公众也迫切想了解它的历史气候变化。然而,这方面的信息匮乏,也难以从全球或者大区域的研究中获取精准的信息,因为气候变化具有典型的区域特色。本文基于均一化的逐日气温数据,研制了1960年以来雄安新区的连续数据,进而分析了它的平均和极端气温变化趋势。结果表明:1960年以来,平均气温显著升高,1998年至今变暖没有停滞;极端高(低)温的频率总体显著增加(减小)。与周边的京津冀和华北区域平均相比,雄安新区的气温变化幅度更大,需要绿色发展。     

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific(WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m(MWS_(10)) from an ensemble of15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS_(10) are similar in the WNP and South China Sea(SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS(1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP(2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations,and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit(2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.     

当前对流参数化研究存在问题的讨论

基于对流参数化的发展过程,讨论了当前对流参数化方案中存在的问题,着重分析了大尺度水汽辐合型和质量通量型方案的缺陷,同时对东亚季风区和我国的研究现状进行了分析,提出了通用对流参数化方案的设计思想和应该考虑的原则,具有重要的参考借鉴意义。     

The frequency, intensity, and diurnal cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low- and mid-latitudes

Global precipitation data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed for many applications, but they were unavailable before the recent creation of several such satellite products. Here, we evaluate four different satellite data sets of hourly or 3-hourly precipitation (namely CMORPH, PERSIANN, TRMM 3B42 and a microwave-only product referred to as MI) by comparing the spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount, daily precipitation frequency and intensity, and the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles among them and with surface synoptic weather reports. We found that these high-resolution products show spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount comparable to other monthly products for the low- and mid-latitudes, and the mean daily precipitation frequency and intensity maps are similar among these pure satellite-based precipitation data sets and consistent with the frequency derived using weather reports over land. The satellite data show that spatial variations in mean precipitation amount come largely from precipitation frequency rather than intensity, and that the use of satellite infrared (IR) observations to improve sampling does not change the mean frequency, intensity and the diurnal cycle significantly. Consistent with previous studies, the satellite data show that sub-daily variations in precipitation are dominated by the 24-h cycle, which has an afternoon–evening maximum and mean-to-peak amplitude of 30–100% of the daily mean in precipitation amount over most land areas during summer. Over most oceans, the 24-h harmonic has a peak from midnight to early morning with an amplitude of 10–30% during both winter and summer. These diurnal results are broadly consistent with those based on the weather reports, although the time of maximum in the satellite precipitation is a few hours later (especially for TRMM and PERSIANN) than that in the surface observations over most land and ocean, and it is closer to the phase of showery precipitation from the weather reports. The TRMM and PERSIANN precipitation shows a spatially coherent time of maximum around 0300–0600 local solar time (LST) for a weak (amplitude <20%) semi-diurnal (12-h) cycle over most mid- to high-latitudes, comparable to 0400–0600 LST in the surface data. The satellite data also confirm the notion that the diurnal cycle of precipitation amount comes mostly from its frequency rather than its intensity over most low and mid-latitudes, with the intensity has only about half of the strength of the diurnal cycle in the frequency and amount. The results suggest that these relatively new precipitation products can be useful for many applications.     

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

1 INTRODUCTION The Jiangnan Region is in the eastern part of China that is south of the Changjiang River and north of Nanling Mountains. It encompasses southern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, most of Fujian and southern Zhejiang. It is a base for the production of grain and cotton among other well-developed agricultural economy. Its eastern coastal area is also an important industrial base. Climatic anomalies in the region are threats to human life and property for tens of millions peopl…     

Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes

While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.     

力觉临场感遥操作机器人(2):操作者的输入输出特性建模

力觉临场感遥操作机器人系统是一个典型的人在回路(Human-in-Loop)的人机交互系统,操作者作为整个系统的一个重要单元是完成机器人控制的顶层控制环节.操作者需要接受力觉、触觉、视觉和运动信息反馈后,才能作出决策,远程操纵机器人执行任务,因此操作者是一个基于多输入单输出的复杂系统,而且具有非线性和时变性,需要建立一套相应的控制模型.文章通过分析操作者在力觉临场感遥操作系统中的感知、决策与动作的特性,建立了一种操作者的输入输出模型,并给出了模型的等效二端口网络形式,为力觉临场感遥操作机器人系统的分析提供了基础.