Role of the Ocean in Maintaining the North-Atlantic Oscillation

Based on the data on the sea-surface temperature (SST), the heat content of the upper 200-m layer, and the sea-level pressure, we analyze the low-frequency variability of the SST and heat content in the North Atlantic in 1950–1992 and the index of North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in 1940–1995. It is confirmed that the role of the ocean and various mechanisms controlling the variability of SST changes for processes corresponding to different time scales (interannual, decadal, and interdecadal). It is shown that the interaction of tropical and subtropical latitudes is of principal importance on the interannual scale, the processes regulating the variability of subtropical gyre are important on the decadal scale, and the variations of the NAO with lower frequencies are controlled by the oceanic variability at high latitudes. We discuss possible feedbacks in the ocean–atmosphere system maintaining the NAO.     

Large-scale patterns of Eurasian surface meteorological fields influenced by the climate shift of 1976–1977

On the basis of the 1950–2001 NCEP reanalysis data, space-time variability of the surface pressure (SP), surface air temperature (SAT), and precipitation fields in Eurasia is studied in connection with the 1976–1977 climate shift. The effect of the shift manifests itself in the change in the space-time structure of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in all these fields from September to April. For SP and SAT, during this period, only two first EOFs are stable with respect to the climate shift. Also, for SAT and SP, the second EOFs are stable from November to April and from September to December, respectively. For the precipitation field, even the first EOFs are unstable during the whole period, with the exception of January and February. Instability with respect to the climate shift appears first in change in the EOF spatial pattern of the fields. Stability of the first modes of the Eurasian meteorological fields to the 1976–1977 climate shift is caused by a relative stability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which explains up to 70 and 30% of variance of the first and second EOFs, respectively, of the hydrometeorological fields in the region.     

Wind variability in the northwestern part of the Black Sea from the offshore fixed platform observation data

The statistically ensured estimates of characteristics of temporal variability of wind speed and wind direction are obtained on the basis of observations carried out in 1996–2001 at the offshore fixed platform in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. The maximum values of monthly mean wind speed (more than 8 m/s) are registered in the cold half-year and the minimum ones (～4 m/s), in summer. The moderate winds of northern and southern directions dominate during the whole year. Using the Pearson’s chi-squared test, it is demonstrated that the wind speed follows the normal distribution law during the most part of observation period. The largest deviations from the normal law are timed to the periods of existence of intensive large-scale anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere system. A significant alternation of both synoptic and lower-frequency intramonthly wind speed fluctuations with typical periods of ～10–15 days is revealed. Their peak amplitude was registered in the fall and winter season of 1997/98, i.e., it was observed during the mature phase of one of the most intensive El Niños during the whole period of instrumental observations. At that time, the energy of intramonthly low-frequency wind speed fluctuations (～4 m²/s²) was equal to the energy of fluctuations within the synoptic range of the spectrum.     

Climatic Characteristics of Temperature and Salinity Fields in Deep-Water Layers of the Black Sea

The systematic and random errors of reconstruction of the climatic variability of temperature and salinity in the Black Sea are analyzed on the basis of the archival deep-water data accumulated in 1955–1998. It is shown that, in order to describe the space variability of large-scale deep-water characteristics of the temperature fields with reasonable accuracy, one can use both the data of standard hydrological measurements and the CTD data. In this case, the systematic errors are practically indistinguishable against the background of random errors whose characteristic level is equal to 0.03°C. The random errors of evaluation of salinity are as large as about 0.04 and the corresponding systematic errors are not distinguished. The available archive of the data of deep-water measurements enables one to select space structures with characteristic dimensions of 2° in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions with temperature and salinity inhomogeneities exceeding 0.0035°C and 0.004, respectively. This is sufficient to confirm the fact of elevation of the bottom temperature in the central part of the sea is by about 0.015°C as compared with its peripheral parts.     

Statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones over the Black Sea in the second half of the 20th century

By using the NCEP reanalysis data for 1952–2000, we estimate the parameters of cyclones and anticyclones in the Black-Sea region and evaluate the statistical characteristics of their variability for each season. It is shown that the frequency of cyclones decreases in all seasons (except summer) as a result of the intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1960–90s and the displacement of the predominant paths of synoptic disturbances to the north. For anticyclones, we reveal the opposite trend. The parameters of cyclones and anticyclones are characterized by quasiperiodic variations on the subdecadal scale also induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 47–58, November–December, 2007.     

Decadal variability of characteristics of the Black Sea pycnocline and geostrophic circulation in the wintertime

The Black Sea density fields and geostrophic circulation in the 0–300-dbar layer are reconstructed from the February archive hydrological data for several decades from 1951 to 1995 and then their interdecadal variability is studied. A gradual rise of the pycnocline is noted in the dome region of large-scale cyclonic gyrals from 5 m at the top of the pycnocline to 10–15 m at 100–300-m levels. Differently directed tendencies of long-term variability of the winter circulation are revealed: circulation intensification in the upper 0–50-m layer (except for the southwestern sea) and weakening in the lower pycnocline 200–300-m layer. The connection with the wind vorticity variability, river runoff, precipitation, and air temperature is analyzed. Strengthening of the cyclonic wind vorticity in the 1960s and the early 1970s is in good agreement with the circulation intensification of that time in the eastern sea.     

Long-term trends in the variability of deep-water thermohaline characteristics of the Black Sea

By using the archival hydrological data for 1955–1998, we analyze the trends of deep-water thermohaline characteristics of the Black Sea and their interannual and decadal variability. It was discovered that the level of salinity increased at depths greater than 1000 m in the west part of the sea from the mid-1950-s till the early 1980s and the opposite trend was observed for the next 15–20 yr. The average rate of increase in the deep-water salinity between 1960 and 1980 and its decrease after 1980 was equal to 0.05‰ per 20 yr. These facts demonstrate that the water exchange through Bosporus was intensified for the first 25 yr of the analyzed period and weakened for the next 20 yr. The interannual variability with a typical period of 6.5 yr and a quasi-20-yr periodicity are detected against the background of the parabolic trend. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 18–30, July–August, 2006.     

Preliminary results of the expedition of the marine hydrophysical institute of the ukrainian national academy of sciences on the R/V Éksperiment in the northwest part of the black sea in May 2007

In May 2007, the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences carried out an oceanographic expedition in the northwest sector of the Black Sea. This expedition originates a series of surveys scheduled for this region. It was realized within the framework of national and international projects, such as Climate, Ecoshelf, Stable Ecosystem, SESAM, ECOOP, and Oceanography. We present the data on the works carried out in this expedition and perform a brief analysis of the process of subduction of waters on the northwest shelf. It is shown that, despite the abnormally warm preceding autumn–winter period, the wellpronounced subduction of waters formed in the process of autumn–winter cooling was still observed over the drop of depth along the isopycnic surfaces σt = 14.0 and σt = 14.5–14.6 in May 2007. New data on the intensity of vertical turbulent exchange over the continental slope in the northwest part of the Black Sea are obtained.     

Interannual variability of the heat content of the upper layer in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Indian-Ocean dipole

The aim of the present work is to study the characteristics of interannual variability of the heat content of the upper layer in the Equatorial Indian Ocean according the XBT-data accumulated in 1983–2003 for the evaluation the role of various physical factors specifying the space and time structure of the Indian-Ocean dipole in the subsurface layer. The existence of the significant influence of intense events of El Niño on the Indian-Ocean dipole is confirmed. These events generate the maximum disturbances of the thermal structure in the upper layer of the east part of the Indian Ocean propagating then in the westward direction with velocities varying from 3–4 to 8 cm/sec.     

On the Statistical Characteristics of the North-Atlantic Oscillation

By using archival monthly data for 100 yr, we analyze the statistical structure of time series characterizing the variability of the Azores High and Iceland Low. We show that there exists a long-term tendency towards approach of the centers of action of the atmosphere (CAA) in the North Atlantic and their strengthening. At the same time, quasiperiodic decadal intensification of the CAA is accompanied by an increase in the distance between them. In the spectra of sea-level pressure in the Azores High and Iceland Low, significant peaks for periods of 2–5 and 10 yr are strongly pronounced. Furthermore, oscillations with a period 50 yr are clearly seen. The main contribution to the interannual changes in the index of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is made by pressure variability in the Iceland Low. Different ways of behavior are characteristic of the CAA for time scales of 2–7, 7–15, and more than 15 yr. Each of these variability intervals is analyzed separately. We established a significant correlation between the index of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and characteristics of the CAA of the North Atlantic only for time scales of 7–15 yr. It demonstrates that, as the SO index increases in autumn, the pressure at the center of the Azores High grows and the latitudinal distance between the Azores High and Iceland Low decreases, i.e., the zonal circulation in the North Atlantic becomes more intense. We also discuss possible mechanisms of the obtained statistical relations.