Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

通化集安群石榴子石和黑云母微区化学成分特征及其对变质作用p-T-t轨迹的指示意义

集安群片麻岩中石榴子石和黑云母接触带两侧边缘广泛发育Fe－Mg交换反应所形成的扩散环带,但晶体内部各自保持变质峰期的成分,中温带石榴子石可保留生长环带。经微区化学成分详细研究后,正确运用Grt－Bt温度计获得进变质阶段,变质高峰期和修期后Fe－Mg交换反应停止时的温度条件。按石榴子石和斜长石的微区钙含量变化确定了峰期和退变质阶段压力。据此建立起逆时针形式的变质作用p－T－t轨迹,反映该区早元古代陆壳内裂陷带的闭合过程。     

GPS-RTK测量结果的精度分析

由于GPS-RTK测量缺少必要的检核条件,作业时如果操作失误或者处理不当,会给测量成果带来严重影响,在此本文对在湖面,高层建筑物,高压线周围布置一些点,用已知点位法,用全站仪测量出来的坐标和GPS-RTK观测的点坐标进行对比,分析对比RTK显示精度和真实精度的关系,从而来讨论GPS-RTK测量结果的精度和可靠性问题.     

风廓线雷达中风切变分析方法的初步研究

在风廓线雷达连续输出的风场时间高度显示图上,尝试进行风场的流线分析和风切变值等值线分析,以便用于识别强烈风切变区。在风场变化比较均匀时,分析出的线形分布比较平缓,而在风场变化比较剧烈的区域,风向等值线、垂直风切变等值线和流线三者一致表现出了汇聚特点,线形的分布也异常地密集,分析结果直观地反映出了风场分布的特征和危险性风切变区域,该结果有助于风切变自动识别方法的研究。     

Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011-2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤M_L≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

Discovering the ancient lakelet of the archeological site of pasargadae in Iran using a multi-layer technique

Pasargadae complex had been the main center of Persian history during the Achaemenian period (560–330 bc), registered as one of the world heritage sites by UNESCO in 2004. This research is an attempt to recognize the natural setting and landscape of Pasargadae during the Achaemenian period, in Iran. The method is based on the application of a multi-layer technique. Collected data by fieldwork, especially in geology, hydrology, and hydrogeology, along with the analysis of aerial data and satellite information provided the baseline information for preparing historic and environmental layers and have made it possible to recognize a natural lakelet in the this area. The results show that the geometry of lakelet together with the ancient river of Pasargadae had been the main elements that formed the character of the site; they were also important in the locations of buildings in the Pasargadae complex.     

Response of littoral chironomid communities and organic matter to late glacial lake—level,vegetation and climate changes at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany,Italy)

This study focuses on the response of lacustrine littoral chironomid communities to late glacial changes in limnological, environmental and climate conditions in the Mediterranean context. Late glacial chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry were analysed in a sediment core from the littoral zone of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy), where the lake-level fluctuations and the vegetation history have been previously reconstructed. Comparison of the chironomid stratigraphy to other proxies (pollen assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry, lake-level) and regional climate reconstruction suggested the predominant influence of lake-level changes on the littoral chironomid fauna. The main lowering events that occurred during the Oldest and the Younger Dryas were followed by higher proportions of taxa typical of littoral habitats. A complementary study of organic matter suggested the indirect impact of lake-level on the chironomids through changes in humic status and habitat characteristics, such as the type of substrate and aquatic macrophyte development. Several chironomid taxa, such as Glyptotendipes, Microtendipes and Cricotopus type patens, were identified as possible indicators of low lake-level in the late glacial records. Nevertheless, this study suggested that parallel analyses of organic matter and chironomid assemblages may be needed to circumvent misinterpretation of littoral chironomid assemblage stratigraphy. There was a weak response of the chironomid assemblages to small lake-level lowerings that corresponded to the Older Dryas and Preboreal oscillations. A higher level of determination, e.g. to the species group level, may be necessary to increase the sensibility of the indicators to lake-level changes.     

Variability of aerosol properties during the 2007–2010 spring seasons over central Europe

Aerosol optical properties have been studied for spring seasons when increased values of PM10 are registered. Measurements of aerosol optical properties were taken by collocated lidar and sun-photometers at Belsk, Poland, and Minsk, Belarus. A significant increase of registered aerosol optical thickness (AOT) was found during episodes with elevated PM10 concentrations. An increase of AOT at 1020 nm amounted to 50% in the case of Minsk and 18% in the case of Belsk, while an increase of AOT at 400 nm was 66% and 33%, respectively. We noted an increase of Ångström exponent by 6% at both stations and no significant increase of single scattering albedo. The LIDAR measurements together with NAAPS model results and backtrajectory analysis suggest that both the biomass burning products and the Saharan dust are responsible for increased PM10 concentrations and large AOT values during spring time. The smoke aerosol is transported over Central Europe mainly in the boundary layer, increasing both PM10 concentration and AOT. The dust aerosol transported in the free troposphere slightly affects the AOT values only. Statistically significant correlation between PM10 concentration and AOT was found during reporting period.     

西藏班公湖-怒江缝合带中段江错蛇绿岩岩石学、地球化学、年代学及地质意义

江错蛇绿岩位于班公湖-怒江缝合带中段, 位于切里湖蛇绿岩亚带的最东端, 南邻蓬湖西蛇绿岩.江错蛇绿岩岩石组合相对较全, 主要由变质橄榄岩、辉长岩和辉绿岩等组成.江错蛇绿岩辉长岩-辉绿岩与N-MORB相比具有较高的Mg#、低Ti、K、Na和P的特征, 富集大离子亲石元素Sr、Rb、Ba和亏损高场强元素Th、Hf、Ta、Nb, REE配分图总体显示为平坦型分布模式.通过地球化学元素分析认为江错蛇绿岩是形成于SSZ之上的弧后盆地扩张脊环境.对其进行辉长岩锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年, 得出加权平均年龄为189.8±3.3 Ma(MSWD=0.97), 该结果代表了班公湖怒江缝合带中段江错地区特提斯洋的扩张时代, 与中段东巧地区蛇绿岩年龄一致, 但晚于东段洋盆发育时代且早于西段洋盆发育时代, 表明整个班公湖-怒江洋盆发育时代存在东早西晚的特点.