Modeling fish growth and reproduction in the context of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory to predict environmental impact on anchovy spawning duration

Spawning location and timing are critical for understanding fish larval survival. The impact of a changing environment on spawning patterns is, however, poorly understood. A novel approach is to consider the impact of the environment on individual life histories and subsequent spawnings. In the present work, we extend the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to investigate how environment variability impacts the spawning timing and duration of a multiple-batch spawning species. The model is successfully applied to reproduce the growth and reproduction of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. The model captures realistically the start and ending of the spawning season, including the timing of the spawning events, and the change in egg number per batch. Using a realistic seasonal forcing of temperature and food availability derived from a bio-physical model, our simulation results show that two thirds of the total spawned mass already accumulates before the start of the spawning season and that the condition factor increases with body length. These simulation results are in accordance with previous estimations and observations on growth and reproduction of anchovy. Furthermore, we show how individuals of equal length can differ in reproductive performance according to the environmental conditions they encounter prior to the spawning season. Hatch date turns out to be key for fecundity at age-1 as it partly controls the ability to build up reserves allocated to reproduction. We suggest the model can be used to realistically predict spawning in spatially and temporally varying environments and provide initial conditions for bio-physical models used to predict larval survival.     

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970     

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.     

Relations entre déformation et métamorphisme alpin dans les schistes noirs helvétiques : l’apport de la fabrique magnétique

Résumé

La fabrique magnétique des schistes noirs du Jurassique helvétique au pourtour des massifs de l’Aar et du Gothard (Alpes suisses) reflète, en fonction du métamorphisme croissant, l’orientation préférentielle de minéraux magnétiques d’origines diverses : la magnétite primaire, les phyllosilicates et la pyrrhotite métamorphiques. La foliation magnétique est parallèle à la première schistosité pénétrative même si celle-ci est effacée par une seconde schistosité. La linéation magnétique indique retirement lié à la direction de transport des nappes. Dans la partie la plus métamorphique où apparaît la pyrrhotite au cours de la déformation, la fabrique magnétique permet de situer l’apparition de ce minéral dans la tectonique polyphasée. Les propriétés magnétiques anisotropes de la pyrrhotite s’avèrent plus complexes que le modèle usuel de marqueurs planaires et l’interprétation des linéations observées doit en tenir compte.     

Changes in Nutrient Biogeochemistry in Response to the Regression of Zostera noltii Meadows in the Arcachon Bay (France)

From 1989 to 2007, a severe decline in Zostera noltii meadows was reported in the Arcachon Bay, with an accelerated regression after 2005. We investigated the inter-annual variability of the biogeochemistry of the sediment in an area affected by seagrass decline. In late summer and in winter of the years 2006, 2010, and 2011, sediment cores were collected at low tide on vegetated and adjacent non-vegetated sediments located in the eastern part of the Arcachon Bay. The geochemical analyses of sediment solid-phase organic carbon, reactive P and Fe, and the pore water concentrations of Fe²⁺, DIP, and NH₄ ⁺ are presented. The changes in the chemistry of sediment and pore water between 2006 and 2010 are interpreted as a consequence of the decrease in the Z. noltii biomass between 2006 and 2010. The absence of significant seasonal variations in biomass throughout the growth period (March–September) in 2011 is most likely related to the regression of Z. noltii meadow that strongly affects the study area. In contrast to the healthy meadow in 2006, the declining meadow favored the dissolution of sedimentary particulate phosphorus in winter. In late summer, the low biomass of seagrass resulted in a net release of ammonium in the pore water of the upper 20 cm of sediment. This study clearly shows that seagrass decay may enhance nutrient release in sediments, resulting in a significant supply of phosphorus to the water column of a magnitude comparable to annual inputs to the lagoon from the rivers and the tidal pump.     

Will the river Irtysh survive the year 2030? Impact of long-term unsuitable land use and water management of the upper stretch of the river catchment (North Kazakhstan)

The Irtysh river basin all the way from river spring in China across Kazakhstan as far as the Russian part of Siberia is among the most ecologically endangered and affected regions on our planet. The study provides a summary of the historical reasons for anthropological interventions in this area, which began with the construction of plants of the military—industrial complexes in the forties of the last century during World War II. These plants have a major share in extreme high concentrations of heavy metals in surface as well in groundwaters locally. The Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon plays a specific role as a source of contamination of local waters. The release of top secret data enabled us to gain knowledge about serious problems related to high radioactivity of groundwaters, which should spread uncontrollably through a system of secondary fissures activated by nuclear blasts. Another serious problem in this region is the quantitative aspect of contamination. Model simulations of water balance indicate that large industrial development in the spring area in China and continuously increasing water consumption in Kazakhstan may lead to desiccation of the lower stretch of this large river in Siberia during the summer months of 2030.     

Twenty years of progresses in oceanic rogue waves: the role played by weakly nonlinear models

Here we discuss some of the progresses that have been made in the last 20 years in the field of oceanic rogue waves, focusing on the role played by leading order equations such as the nonlinear Schrödinger and the Korteweg-De Vries equations. For such equations, it is possible, as shown in Onorato et al. (Origin of heavy tail statistics in equations of the nonlinear Schrödinger type: an exact result, 2016. arXiv:1601.04317), to derive a very simple relation in which the variation of the third (for the KdV) and fourth (for the NLS) moment of the probability density function of the wave field can be related to the variation of the spectral bandwidth. These relations give some new perspectives on the formation of rogue waves in a random sea state.     

Geometry and kinematics of brittle deformation in the Central Cameroon Shear Zone (Kékem area): Implication for gold exploration within the Central Africa Fold Belt in Cameroon

The Central Africa Fold Belt (CAFB) is a collision belt endowed with gold deposits in Eastern Cameroon area mined for about 50 years. However, favorable areas for gold exploration are poorly known. This paper presents (1) the kinematics of the brittle deformation in the Kékem area in the SW portion of the Central Cameroon Shear Zone and (2) constraints gold mineralization events with respect to the collisional evolution of the CAFB. The authors interpret that the conjugate ENE to E and NNW to NW trending lineament corresponds to the synthetic (R) and the antithetic (R’) shears, which accompanied the dextral slip along the NE to ENE striking shear. The latter coincides with the last 570–552 Ma D₃ dextral simple shear-dominated transpression, which is parallel to the Bétaré Oya shear zone hosting gold deposits. Gold mineralizations, which mainly occurred during the last dextral shearing, are disseminated within quartz veins associated to Riedel’s previous structures reactivated due to late collisional activities of the CAFB as brittle deformation. Gold mineralizations occurred mainly during the 570–552 Ma D₃ event. The reactivation, which might be due to dextral simple shear during mylonitzation, plausibly remobilized the early gold deposits hosted in syn-compressional rocks and/or possibly focused deep-sourced fluid mixed with those released by dehydration. Therefore, the Central Cameroon Shear Zone where Kékem is located, and which shows similar petrographical and structural features to those controling Batouri gold district, is a target area for gold exploration in Cameroon.