Robustness and uncertainties of seismic damage estimates at urban scale: a methodological comparison on the example of the city of Oran (Algeria)

The city of Oran is exposed to a significant seismic hazard, as almost all the northern Algeria territory, where numerous casualties and severe damage occurred in the last decades due to several moderate to large earthquakes. A mitigation policy should include the establishment of priorities to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings based on the knowledge of the actual urban fabrics. The complexity of vulnerability assessment requires a gradual approach from the urban scale to the building scale. The study reported in this paper corresponds to the first step of such an approach, i.e., a preliminary study of the seismic vulnerability and expected damage within an urban district of the city of Oran, based on a non-dedicated data base from a building survey previously performed for other purposes. The main goals of this study are twofold: (1) an assessment of the degree of uncertainty and robustness of such results through a comparison of the results derived from different urban vulnerability methods (GNDT 2; RISK-UE LM1; and VULNERALP 2.0) and (2) an assessment of the actual level of seismic risk in the city of Oran. Cross-method comparisons and correlations highlight a satisfactory agreement between mean damage estimates at the urban scale, despite significant scattering at the single building scale, and uncertainty levels which vary significantly from one method to the other. For a given scenario, the three methods provide damage estimates lying within half an EMS damage degree of one another, with some systematic positive bias for VULNERALP and negative bias for RISK-UE LM1, especially for masonry buildings. The expected mean damage is very important for intensities 9 and 10, with an average damage grade around 3–4 for intensity 9 and 4–5 for intensity 10. The spatial distribution of damage systematically exhibits larger values in the northern, older, commercial area, than in the southern, more recent and more residential area, in relation to the building typology and the existence of several aggravating factors. Some areas of higher vulnerability / damage can be distinguished, which should receive particular attention for retrofitting priorities or urban planning decisions, also taking into account their cultural heritage value.     

Impact airblast triggers dust avalanches on Mars

Visible images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have revealed more than 200 new impact sites on Mars (almost all in dust-mantled regions) containing 1–50 m diameter craters, often in clusters. We count approximately 65,000 small-scale slope streaks within 2 to 3 km of one such cluster and categorize them into four morphologically distinct types. Here we show that these slope streaks (interpreted as dust avalanches) are triggered by the impact event but, surprisingly, are not due to seismic shaking; instead, the dust avalanches are due to airblasts created by the supersonic meteor(s) before impact. Sixteen of the new impact sites are associated with high areal densities of dust avalanches. The observed dust avalanche frequency suggests that impact-generated airblasts constitute a locally important and previously unrecognized process for inducing slope degradation on Mars.     

The remarkable surface homogeneity of the Dawn mission target (1) Ceres

Dwarf-planet (1) Ceres is one of the two targets, along with (4) Vesta, that will be studied by the NASA Dawn spacecraft via imaging, visible and near-infrared spectroscopy, and gamma-ray and neutron spectroscopy. While Ceres’ visible and near-infrared disk-integrated spectra have been well characterized, little has been done about quantifying spectral variations over the surface. Any spectral variation would give us insights on the geographical variation of the composition and/or the surface age. The only work so far was that of Rivkin and Volquardsen ([2010], Icarus 206, 327) who reported rotationally-resolved spectroscopic (disk-integrated) observations in the 2.2–4.0 μm range; their observations showed evidence for a relatively uniform surface.Here, we report disk-resolved observations of Ceres with SINFONI (ESO VLT) in the 1.17–1.32 μm and 1.45–2.35 μm wavelength ranges. The observations were made under excellent seeing conditions (0.6″), allowing us to reach a spatial resolution of ～75 km on Ceres’ surface. We do not find any spectral variation above a 3% level, suggesting a homogeneous surface at our spatial resolution. Slight variations (about 2%) of the spectral slope are detected, geographically correlated with the albedo markings reported from the analysis of the HST and Keck disk-resolved images of Ceres (Li et al. [2006], Icarus 182, 143; Carry et al. [2008], Astron. Astrophys. 478, 235). Given the lack of constraints on the surface composition of Ceres, however, we cannot assert the causes of these variations.     

Climatic variations in MIS 11 recorded by stable isotopes and trace elements in a French tufa (La Celle,Seine Valley)

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 palaeoclimate has so far been documented in marine and ice sheet isotopic records. However, excepting some lacustrine pollen records, very little is known about palaeoclimatic conditions in continental areas. This study uses geochemical records in calcareous tufa deposits from rivers as a basis for reconstructing temperate palaeoclimatic conditions. Tufa deposits are now proven to record high‐quality palaeoclimatic information in recent to Holocene deposits. Work on older interglacial tufas is just starting and in this paper we present the first comprehensive results from a MIS 11 tufa. The tufa comes from the Seine Valley (La Celle, northern France). Geochemical data in the tufa calcite are interpreted to record primarily air temperature (δ¹⁸O) and humidity (δ¹³C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca). The combined data identify a warm and wet climatic optimum followed by two temperature decreases associated with oscillations in humidity. These marked climatic variations recorded through the La Celle profile are strongly coherent with the palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from malacological data. The abrupt climatic and environmental events recorded could be related to short‐term degradation of vegetation cover in Europe, which is itself controlled by global palaeoclimatic events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mauritius since the last glacial: environmental and climatic reconstruction of the last 38 000 years from Kanaka Crater

A 10 m long peat core from the Kanaka Crater (20° 25′ S, 57° 31′ E), located at 560 m elevation in Mauritius, was analyzed for microfossils. Eight radiocarbon ages show the pollen record reflects environmental and climatic change of the last ca. 38 cal ka BP. The record shows that the island was continuously covered by forest with Erica heath (Philippia) in the uplands. Cyperaceous reedswamp with Pandanus trees was abundant in the coastal lowlands as well as locally in the waterlogged crater. The record shows changes in climatic humidity (wet from 38.0 to 22.7 cal ka BP, drier from 22.7 to 10.6 cal ka BP, and wetter again from 10.6 cal ka BP to recent) as the main response to climate change. A high turnover in montane forest species is evidenced at 22.7 cal ka BP and at the start of the Holocene. The limited altitudinal ranges in the mountains of Mauritius (maximum altitude 828 m), and changing humidity being more important than changing temperature, suggests that in response to climate change a reassortment in taxonomic composition of montane forests might be equally important as displacement of forest types to new altitudinal intervals. We found weak impact of the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and data suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole is a more important driver for climatic change in the southwest Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization techniques for identifying soil parameters in geotechnical engineering: Comparative study and enhancement

A comparative study of optimization techniques for identifying soil parameters in geotechnical engineering was first presented. The identification methodology with its 3 main parts, error function, search strategy, and identification procedure, was introduced and summarized. Then, current optimization methods were reviewed and classified into 3 categories with an introduction to their basic principles and applications in geotechnical engineering. A comparative study on the identification of model parameters from a synthetic pressuremeter and an excavation tests was then performed by using 5 among the mostly common optimization methods, including genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, the differential evolution algorithm and the artificial bee colony algorithm. The results demonstrated that the differential evolution had the strongest search ability but the slowest convergence speed. All the selected methods could reach approximate solutions with very small objective errors, but these solutions were different from the preset parameters. To improve the identification performance, an enhanced algorithm was developed by implementing the Nelder‐Mead simplex method in a differential algorithm to accelerate the convergence speed with strong reliable search ability. The performance of the enhanced optimization algorithm was finally highlighted by identifying the Mohr‐Coulomb parameters from the 2 same synthetic cases and from 2 real pressuremeter tests in sand, and ANICREEP parameters from 2 real pressuremeter tests in soft clay.     

An enhanced rainfall–runoff model with coupled canopy interception

The translation of rainfall to runoff is significantly affected by canopy interception. Therefore, a realistic representation of the role played by vegetation cover when modelling the rainfall–runoff system is essential for predicting water, sediment, and nutrient transport on hillslopes. Here, we developed a new mathematical model to describe the dynamics of interception, infiltration, and overland flow on canopy-covered sloping land. Based on the relationship between rainfall intensity and the maximum interception rate, the interception process was modelled under two simplified scenarios (i.e., r_e ≤ Int_m and r_e > Int_m). Parameterization of the model was based on consideration of both vegetation condition and soil properties. By analysing the given examples, we found that Int_m reflects the capacity of the canopy to store the precipitation, k reveals the ability of the canopy to retain the intercepted water, and the processes of infiltration and runoff generation are impacted dramatically by Int_m and k. To evaluate the model, simulated rainfall experiments were conducted in 2 years (2016 and 2017) across six cultivation plots at Changwu State Key Agro-Ecological Experimental Station of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The parameters were obtained by fitting the unit discharge (simulated rainfall experiments in 2016) using the least squares method, and estimation formulas for parameters pertaining to vegetation/soil factors (measured in 2016) were constructed via multiple nonlinear regressions. By matching the simulated results and unit discharge (simulated rainfall experiments in 2017), the validity of the model was verified, and a reasonable precision (average R² = .86 and average root mean square error = 6.45) was obtained. The model developed in this research creatively incorporates the canopy interception process to complement the modelling of rainfall infiltration and runoff generation during vegetation growth and offers an improved hydrological basis to analyse matter transport during rainfall events.     

Fast switch from extensional exhumation to thrusting of the Ronda Peridotites (South Spain)

The Alboran Domain, situated at the western end of the Mediterranean subduction system, is characterized by the Ronda Peridotites, one of the world's largest exposures of sub‐continental mantle. Using U–Pb (LA‐ICP‐MS) and Ar–Ar dating, we precisely dated two tectonic events associated with the Tertiary exhumation of the Ronda Peridotites. First, shearing along the Crust–Mantle Extensional Shear Zone caused, at ca. 22.5 Ma, mantle exhumation, local partial melting in the deep crust and coeval cooling in the upper crust. Second, the Ronda Peridotites Thrust triggered the final emplacement of the peridotites onto the continental crust at c. 21 Ma, as testified by granitic intrusions in the thrust hangingwall. The tectonic evolution of the western Alboran Domain is therefore characterized by a fast switch from continental lithospheric extension in a backarc setting, with sub‐continental mantle exhumation, to a rift inversion by thrusting driven by shortening of the upper plate.     

Mixed fluid sources involved in diamond growth constrained by Sr–Nd–Pb–C–N isotopes and trace elements

Sub-micrometer inclusions in diamonds carry high-density fluids (HDF) from which the host diamonds have precipitated. The chemistry of these fluids is our best opportunity of characterizing the diamond-forming environment. The trace element patterns of diamond fluids vary within a limited range and are similar to those of carbonatitic/kimberlitic melts that originate from beneath the lithospheric mantle. A convecting mantle origin for the fluid is also implied by C isotopic compositions and by a preliminary Sr isotopic study (Akagi, T., Masuda, A., 1988. Isotopic and elemental evidence for a relationship between kimberlite and Zaire cubic diamonds. Nature 336, 665–667.). Nevertheless, the major element chemistry of HDFs is very different from that of kimberlites and carbonatites, varying widely and being characterized by extreme K enrichment (up to ～ 39 wt.% on a water and carbonate free basis) and high volatile contents. The broad spectrum of major element compositions in diamond-forming fluids has been related to fluid–rock interaction and to immiscibility processes.Elemental signatures can be easily modified by a variety of mantle processes whereas radiogenic isotopes give a clear fingerprint of the time-integrated evolution of the fluid source region. Here we present the results of the first multi radiogenic-isotope (Sr, Nd, Pb) and trace element study on fluid-rich diamonds, implemented using a newly developed off-line laser sampling technique. The data are combined with N and C isotope analysis of the diamond matrix to better understand the possible sources of fluid involved in the formation of these diamonds. Sr isotope ratios vary significantly within single diamonds. The highly varied but unsupported Sr isotope ratios cannot be explained by immiscibility processes or fluid-mineral elemental fractionations occurring at the time of diamond growth. Our results demonstrate the clear involvement of a mixed fluid, with one component originating from ancient incompatible element-enriched parts of the lithospheric mantle while the trigger for releasing this fluid source was probably carbonatitic/kimberlitic melts derived from greater depths. We suggest that phlogopite mica was an integral part of the enriched lithospheric fluid source and that breakdown of this mica releases K and radiogenic Sr into a fluid phase. The resulting fluids operate as a major metasomatic agent in the sub-continental lithospheric mantle as reflected by the isotopic composition and trace element patterns of G10 garnets.     

GPS phase scintillation observed over a high-latitude Antarctic station during solar minimum

Radio wave scintillation due to the presence of ionospheric irregularities can cause fading and phase variation of L-band navigation signals such as those used by the Global Positioning System (GPS). The high-latitude regions experience increased scintillation events under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, particularly during solar maximum. This paper presents phase scintillation measurements observed at the South African Antarctic polar research station during solar minimum conditions. In addition, a multi-instrument approach is shown in which the scintillation events are associated with auroral electron precipitation. Furthermore, it is shown that external energy injection into the ionosphere is an important factor in the development of irregularities producing scintillation.