La méthode SHYREG débit—application sur 1605 bassins versants en France métropolitaine

Résumé

La méthode SHYREG est une approche développée pour la connaissance régionale de l’aléa pluvial (SHYREG pluie) et hydrologique (SHYREG débit) en tout point du territoire français. Elle est basée sur le couplage d’un générateur stochastique de pluie horaire et d’un modèle hydrologique. Cet article présente les résultats de la mise en ?uvre de la méthode sur 1605 bassins versants répartis sur la France métropolitaine. Sur les fréquences courantes (c.à.d. périodes de retour inférieures à 10 ans), la méthode restitue correctement les quantiles de débit de crue ajustés à une loi statistique sur les observations (loi GEV, selon le critère de Nash-Sutcliffe). Plusieurs critères sont utilisés pour valider l’extrapolation des débits à des fréquences extrêmes: (a) en la confrontant à de longues chroniques de débits observés, (b) en analysant dans le modèle hydrologique la saturation du réservoir de production synonyme de comportement asymptotique avec les pluies, et (c) en étudiant la stabilité de la méthode à travers les critères statistiques.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé G. Mahé

Citation Aubert, Y., Arnaud, P., Ribstein, P., et Fine, J.-A., 2014. La méthode SHYREG débit, application sur 1605 bassins versants en France Métropolitaine. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 993–1005.     

Impact de la variabilité climatique et du barrage Nangbéto sur l'hydrologie du système Mono-Couffo (Afrique de l'Ouest)

Résumé

En Afrique tropicale, de nombreuses études sur la variabilité climatique montrent qu'une tendance à la sécheresse s'est manifestée à partir de la fin des années 1960. Cette sécheresse a affecté aussi l'hydrosystème Mono-Couffo, en Afrique de l'Ouest, avec une persistance remarquable qui s'est répercutée sur les écoulements. Depuis 1988, avec la mise en eau du barrage de Nangbéto, qui coïncide avec une légère reprise pluviométrique dans les années 1990, on assiste à une modification du régime hydrologique du Mono à Athiémé. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées aux données mensuelles de pluie et débit de la période 1961–2000 ont permis de constater que les déficits pluviométriques des décennies 1970 et 1980 ont engendré des déficits de l'écoulement. Mais, avec la légère reprise pluviométrique (2%) de 1988 à 2000, on assiste à un excédent d'écoulement de 37% sur le Mono à Athiémé à régime « artificiel » depuis 1988; et, par contre, pas d'excédent (0,1%) sur le Couffo à Lanta à régime « naturel ».

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Amoussou, E., Camberlin, P. et Mahé, G., 2012. Impact de la variabilité climatique et du barrage Nangbéto sur l'hydrologie du système Mono-Couffo (Ouest Afrique). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 805–817.     

A method for semi‐automated objective quantification of linear bedforms from multi‐scale digital elevation models

The increasing availability of large, detailed digital representations of the Earth's surface demands the application of objective and quantitative analyses. Given recent advances in the understanding of the mechanisms of formation of linear bedform features from a range of environments, objective measurement of their wavelength, orientation, crest and trough positions, height and asymmetry is highly desirable. These parameters are also of use when determining observation‐based parameters for use in many applications such as numerical modelling, surface classification and sediment transport pathway analysis. Here, we (i) adapt and extend extant techniques to provide a suite of semi‐automatic tools which calculate crest orientation, wavelength, height, asymmetry direction and asymmetry ratios of bedforms, and then (ii) undertake sensitivity tests on synthetic data, increasingly complex seabeds and a very large‐scale (39 000 km²) aeolian dune system. The automated results are compared with traditional, manually derived, measurements at each stage. This new approach successfully analyses different types of topographic data (from aeolian and marine environments) from a range of sources, with tens of millions of data points being processed in a semi‐automated and objective manner within minutes rather than hours or days. The results from these analyses show there is significant variability in all measurable parameters in what might otherwise be considered uniform bedform fields. For example, the dunes of the Rub' al Khali on the Arabian peninsula are shown to exhibit deviations in dimensions from global trends. Morphological and dune asymmetry analysis of the Rub' al Khali suggests parts of the sand sea may be adjusting to a changed wind regime from that during their formation 100 to 10 ka BP. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Propagating error in land-cover-change analyses: impact of temporal dependence under increased thematic complexity

We examined the impact of temporal dependence between patterns of error in classified time-series imagery through a simulation modeling approach. This research extended the land-cover-change simulation model we previously developed to investigate: (1) the assumption of temporal independence between patterns of error in classified time-series imagery; and (2) the interaction of patterns of change and patterns of error in a post-classification change analysis. In this research, the thematic complexity of the classified land-cover maps was increased by increasing the number of simulated land-cover classes. Simulating maps with increased categorical resolution permitted the incorporation of: (1) higher-order, more complex spatial and temporal interactions between land-cover classes; and (2) patterns of error that better reproduce the complex error interactions that often occur in time-series classified imagery. The overall modeling framework was divided into two primary components: (1) generation of a map representing true change; and (2) generation of a suite of change maps that had been perturbed by specific patterns of error. All component maps in the model were produced using simulated annealing, which enabled us to create a series of map realizations with user-defined spatial and temporal patterns. Comparing the true map of change to the error-perturbed maps of change using accuracy assessment statistics showed that increasing the temporal dependence between classification errors did not improve the accuracy of resulting maps of change when the categorical scale of the land-cover classified maps was increased. The increased structural complexity within the time series of maps effectively inhibited the impact of temporal dependence. However, results demonstrated that there are interactions between patterns of error and patterns of change in a post-classification change analysis. These interactions played a major role in determining the accuracy associated with the maps of change.     

Evidencing a large body of ice in a rock glacier,Vanoise Massif,Northern French Alps

The Sachette rock glacier is an active rock glacier located between 2660 and 2480 m a.s.l. in the Vanoise Massif, Northern French Alps (45° 29′ N, 6° 52′ E). In order to characterize its status as permafrost feature, shallow ground temperatures were monitored and the surface velocity measured by photogrammetry. The rock glacier exhibits near‐surface thermal regimes suggesting permafrost occurrence and also displays significant surface horizontal displacements (0.6–1.3 ± 0.6 m yr^–1). In order to investigate its internal structure, a ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) survey was performed. Four constant‐offset GPR profiles were performed and analyzed to reconstruct the stratigraphy and model the radar wave velocity in two dimensions. Integration of the morphology, the velocity models and the stratigraphy revealed, in the upper half of the rock glacier, the good correspondence between widespread high radar wave velocities (>0.15–0.16 m ns^–1) and strongly concave reflector structures. High radar wave velocity (0.165–0.170 m ns^–1) is confirmed with the analysis of two punctual common mid‐point measurements in areas of exposed shallow pure ice. These evidences point towards the existence of a large buried body of ice in the upper part of the rock glacier. The rock glacier was interpreted to result from the former advance and decay of a glacier onto pre‐existing deposits, and from subsequent creep of the whole assemblage. Our study of the Sachette rock glacier thus highlights the rock glacier as a transitional landform involving the incorporation and preservation of glacier ice in permafrost environments with subsequent evolution arising from periglacial processes.     

Influence of sample location and livestock numbers on Sporormiella concentrations and accumulation rates in surface sediments of Lake Allos, French Alps

Spores of coprophilous fungi, especially Sporormiella, are often well preserved in lake sediment cores. It has been hypothesized that such spores can be used to quantify past livestock abundance. The quantitative relationship between fungal spore abundance and livestock populations, however, is not well established, nor are the mechanisms of spore transport and deposition in lacustrine systems. Multiple cores from Lake Allos, a large high-elevation lake in the French Alps, were used to map the modern abundance of Sordaria and Sporormiella spores throughout the lake. We observed high spatial heterogeneity with respect to spore numbers. No correlation with the distance from shoreline was found. There was, however, a relation with distance from the two main lake inlets. These results were used to select two fungi-rich sediment cores to investigate grazing pressure over the last two centuries. Comparisons were made between spore influx and historic data on livestock densities in the catchment. A sharp decrease in Sporormiella influx ca. 1894–1895 was associated with a reported reduction in sheep in the Allos catchment at that time. Mean influx of Sporormiella decreased by a factor of three between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, reflecting a reduction in the reported number of animals in the Lake Allos catchment, from 6,000 to 2,000. This study confirmed that Sporormiella spore abundance in lake sediments can be used as a proxy for catchment herbivore numbers in paleoecological reconstructions. Nevertheless, our data indicate that before spore accumulation can be used to infer past domestic herbivore density, one must understand the processes of coprophilous spore transfer from the catchment to the lake and the influence of core location on spore numbers in the sediment.     

Suitability of a lumped rainfall–runoff model for flashy tropical watersheds in New Caledonia

ABSTRACT

The GR4H lumped hourly rainfall–runoff model was assessed for its integration in a ridge-to-reef modelling framework. Particular attention was paid to rainfall representation, robustness of parameter estimates and ability to reproduce the main runoff features. The study was conducted in four tropical mountainous watersheds in New Caledonia, which are exposed to intense rainfall events, large annual climatic variations triggered by El Niño oscillation, and wildfires. The inverse distance and elevation weighting algorithm outperformed other classical rainfall interpolation methods under data-limited conditions. The time span of data needed for robust calibration was site specific and varied from 6–7 years to 10 years, which may be linked to El Niño events and to wildfires. With sufficient data, simulation quality was equivalent during the calibration and validation periods. The GR4H model was generally able to simulate both flash floods and large annual variations. The model was more reliable when simulating wet years and watersheds not subject to land-cover changes.     

Three-dimensional convection in spherical shells

Abstract

In this study, the equations of the three-dimensional convective motion of an infinite Prandtl number fluid are solved in spherical geometry, for Rayleigh numbers up to 15 times the critical number. An iterative method is used to find stationary solutions. The spherical parts of the operators are treated using a Galerkin collocation method while the radial and time dependences are expressed using finite difference methods. A systematic search for stationary solutions has led to eight different stream patterns for a low Rayleigh number (1.28 times the critical number). They can be classified as:

I) Axisymmetrical solutions, analogous to rolls in plane geometry.

II) Solutions which have several ascending plumes within a large area of ascending current, and also several descending plumes within an area of descending current. This type of flow is analogous to bimodal circulation in plane geometry.

III) Solutions characterized by isolated ascending (or descending) plumes separated from each other by a closed polyhedral network of descending (or ascending) currents. This type of circulation is called ‘polygonal’ in analogy with hexagonal circulation in plane geometry.

The behaviour of each of the eight solutions has been studied by increasing the Rayleigh number up to 15 times the critical number. A trend towards transitions from type (I) and type (II) solutions to type (III) solutions is observed. It is inferred that only the “polygonal” solutions are stable for a Rayleigh number greater than 15 times the critical number.     

The incidence of plastic ingestion by fishes: From the prey’s perspective

One of the primary threats to ocean ecosystems from plastic pollution is ingestion by marine organisms. Well-documented in seabirds, turtles, and marine mammals, ingestion by fish and sharks has received less attention until recently. We suggest that fishes of a variety of sizes attack drifting plastic with high frequency, as evidenced by the apparent bite marks commonly left behind. We examined 5518 plastic items from random plots on Kamilo Point, Hawai’i Island, and found 15.8% to have obvious signs of attack. Extrapolated to the entire amount of debris removed from the 15 km area, over 1.3 tons of plastic is attacked each year. Items with a bottle shape, or those blue or yellow in color, were attacked with a higher frequency. The triangular edges or punctures left by teeth ranged from 1 to 20 mm in width suggesting a variety of species attack plastic items. More research is needed to document the specific fishes and rates of plastic ingestion.     

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Abstract

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km², essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz