Rock falls in the Mont Blanc Massif in 2007 and 2008

Due to a lack of systematic observations, the intensity and volume of rock falls and rock avalanches in high mountain areas are still poorly known. Nevertheless, these phenomena could have burly consequences. To document present rock falls, a network of observers (guides, mountaineers, and hut wardens) was initiated in the Mont Blanc Massif in 2005 and became fully operational in 2007. This article presents data on the 66 rock falls (100 m³?≤?V?≤?50,000 m³) documented in 2007 (n?=?41) and 2008 (n?=?25). Most of the starting zones are located in warm permafrost areas, which are most sensitive to warming, and only four rock falls are clearly out of permafrost area. Different elements support permafrost degradation as one of the main triggering factors of present rock falls in high mountain areas.     

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO₂ probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO₂ we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO₂.     

Mechanisms and reliability of future projected changes in daily precipitation

We isolate the contribution of warming, other large-scale changes and soil moisture decline and feedbacks in driving future projected changes in daily precipitation across Europe. Our confidence in each of these mechanisms differs, so this analysis then allows us to determine an overall confidence (or reliability) in the projected changes. In winter, increases in extreme precipitation over Europe as a whole are judged to be reliable, dominated by increased atmospheric moisture with warming. At scales less than about 2,000 km changing circulation patterns could enhance or offset this increase. Additionally, over the Scandinavian mountains warming-induced circulation changes do offset the effect of increased moisture and the overall change is unreliable. In summer, increases in extreme precipitation over northern Scandinavia and decreases over the Mediterranean are reliable in the absence of considerable circulation change. Over central Europe, an increase in the proportion of summer rainfall falling as extreme events is reliable.     

Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data

This study evaluates new multi-scale, multi-indicator methods for assessing the vulnerability of crop production to drought at a national and regional scale. It does this by identifying differences across and within ten regions of Ghana, a country that faces many climate and crop production challenges typical of sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, we illustrate how a quantitative national and regional study is a critical first step in assessing differences in the drought sensitivity of food production systems and show how such an assessment enables the formulation of more targeted district and community level research that can explore the drivers of vulnerability and change on a local-scale. Finally, we propose methodological steps that can improve drought sensitivity and vulnerability assessments in dynamic dryland farming systems where there are multiple drivers of change and thresholds of risk that vary in both space and time. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana has discernible geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions being most vulnerable. Partly, this is because these regions have the lowest adaptive capacity due to low socioeconomic development and have economies based on rain-fed agriculture. Within these regions we find considerable differences between districts that can be explained only partly by socioeconomic variables with further community and household-scale research required to explain the causes of differences in vulnerability status. Our results highlight that national and regional scale multi-indicator vulnerability assessments are a vital (and often ignored) first step in assessing vulnerability across a large area. These inputs can guide both local-level research and also demonstrate the need for region-specific policies to reduce vulnerability and to enhance drought preparedness within dryland farming communities.     

<Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of the eruptive history of Mount Erebus,Antarctica: summit flows,tephra, and caldera collapse

Eruptive activity has occurred in the summit region of Mount Erebus over the last 95 ky, and has included numerous lava flows and small explosive eruptions, at least one plinian eruption, and at least one and probably two caldera-forming events. Furnace and laser step-heating ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages have been determined for 16 summit lava flows and three englacial tephra layers erupted from Mount Erebus. The summit region is composed of at least one or possibly two superimposed calderas that have been filled by post-caldera lava flows ranging in age from 17 ± 8 to 1 ± 5 ka. Dated pre-caldera summit flows display two age populations at 95 ± 9 to 76 ± 4 ka and 27 ± 3 to 21 ± 4 ka of samples with tephriphonolite and phonolite compositions, respectively. A caldera-collapse event occurred between 25 and 11 ka. An older caldera-collapse event is likely to have occurred between 80 and 24 ka. Two englacial tephra layers from the flanks of Mount Erebus have been dated at 71 ± 5 and 15 ± 4 ka. These layers stratigraphically bracket 14 undated tephra layers, and predate 19 undated tephra layers, indicating that small-scale explosive activity has occurred throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene eruptive history of Mount Erebus. A distal, englacial plinian-fall tephra sample has an age of 39 ± 6 ka and may have been associated with the older of the two caldera-collapse events. A shift in magma composition from tephriphonolite to phonolite occurred at around 36 ka.Editorial responsibility: Julie Donnelly-Nolan     

Alkali exchange equilibria between a silicate melt and coexisting magmatic volatile phase: an experimental study at 800°C and 100 MPa

Many experimental studies have been performed to evaluate the composition of coexisting silicate melts and magmatic volatile phases (MVP). However, few studies have attempted to define the relationship between melt chemistry and the acidity of a chloride-bearing fluid. Here we report data on melt composition as a function of the HCl concentration of coexisting brines. We performed 35 experimental runs with a NaCl-KCl-HCl-H₂O brine (70 wt% NaCl [equivalent])-silicate melt (starting composition of Qtz_0.38Ab_0.33Or_0.29, anhydrous) assemblage at 800°C and 100 MPa. We determined an apparent equilibrium constant

     

Promoting indigenous entrepreneurship through small-scale contract farming: The poultry sector in Sarawak, Malaysia

Studies have consistently shown that in the relatively unregulated environments of the global economic periphery contract farming has led to highly regressive socioeconomic outcomes. Contract farming is not inherently regressive for the small farm sector however. In the state of Sarawak, Malaysia, contract farming is used as part of an affirmative action programme that trains indigenous smallholders in commercial poultry production. The public sector quasi-market constructed by state purchasers and subsidiary suppliers is one that recognizes the smallholders' limited access to collateral and technical skills and their need to supplement rather than totally replace the incomes already derived from diverse agricultural and off-farm sources. The state-administered contract scheme is part of a broader national goal to eradicate poverty, raise rural incomes and ultimately, develop indigenous entrepreneurship. In the shorter and medium term, as the paper shows, the small-scale public contract scheme, which itself operates within the protected domestic poultry sector in Sarawak, is more likely to support disadvantaged 'bumiputra minorities' than produce a pool of competitive entrepreneurs.     

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Tornado Path Direction*

Common perception is that tornadoes travel in paths from the southwest quadrant of directions toward the northeast. This study examines path directions for 6,194 tornadoes that occurred in the eastern two‐thirds of the United States during the twenty‐three‐year period 1980–2002. At the national scale, nearly 70 percent of tornadoes included in the study propagated from the west, west‐southwest, and southwest, with west‐southwest being the highest frequency origin direction. Nevertheless, distinct seasonal and regional variations were found. In central and northern areas of the country, a more westerly or northwesterly path origin prevails during late spring and summer. The midtropospheric flow, convective typology, and synoptic patterns of tornado outbreaks are thought to contribute to the distributions observed in the climatology.     

Source identification for fine aerosols in Mammoth Cave National Park

In this study, positive matrix factorization (PMF) was applied to the chemical composition data of the ambient PM_2.5 collected at the Mammoth Cave National Park, an IMPROVE site in Kentucky. Eight individual carbon fractions, four organic carbons (OCs), pyrolyzed organic carbon (OP) and three elemental carbons (ECs), were provided to the analysis. Nine sources including the well-distinguished gasoline emission and diesel emission were identified. Also, the back trajectories indicated the crustal factor in this study were likely caused by Saharan dust storms in the summer. The apportionment of nine sources was: gasoline emission (6.7%), diesel emission (3.1%), summer secondary sulfate (49.0%), winter secondary sulfate (0.6%), OP-rich secondary sulfate (16.2%), secondary nitrate (2.8%), Intercontinental dust plus soil (4.9%), wood smoke (13.6%), and aged sea salt (3.2%). The results of this study will help regularize the pollution control strategies in rural areas of Kentucky and upper mid-western US while demonstrating the feasibility of applying carbon fractions to the source apportionment of rural upper-Midwestern areas.