Volcanic threat in developing countries of the Asia�CPacific region: probabilistic hazard assessment, population risks, and information gaps

The importance of disaster reduction has gained increased awareness within the international development community and thereby highlighted a need for a preliminary assessment of natural hazard risk in developing countries of the Asia?CPacific, including that for volcanic eruption. In this paper, we present a key component of such an assessment, which involved qualifying the frequency and potential consequences of large??Volcanic Explosivity Index of four or more??volcanic eruptions. The frequencies of large eruptions from volcanoes grouped by region were determined from frequency?Cmagnitude plots using data provided by the Smithsonian Institution??s Global Volcanism Program. However, calculated frequencies represent only minimum values due to an incomplete eruption record. Unfortunately, limited data precluded the calculation of eruption frequencies for the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Samoa. A first-order analysis of the populations potentially impacted by large volcanic eruptions suggest that (1) volcanic disasters affecting populations of >100,000 can be expected at least every decade in Indonesia and once every few decades in the Philippines and (2) a volcanic disaster impacting >1% of the population can be expected twice a century in Vanuatu, twice a millennium for Indonesia and the Philippines, and around every millennium in Papua New Guinea and Tonga.     

An Implementation of the Logarithmic Hamiltonian Method for Artificial Satellite Orbit Determination

We discuss the use of a recently discovered exact two-body leapfrog for accurate symplectic integration of perturbed two-body motion and for the computation of the state-transition matrix. We pay special attention to artificial satellite orbit determination and describe in detail the evaluation of the perturbing acceleration. Inclusion of air drag and other non-canonical forces are also discussed. The main advantage of this new formulation is conceptual simplicity, for easy programming and high accuracy for orbits with large eccentricity. The method has been evaluated in real artificial satellite orbit determinations.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene

Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100–800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes.

     

Tidal decay and stable Roche-lobe overflow of short-period gaseous exoplanets

Many gaseous exoplanets in short-period orbits are on the verge or are in the process of Roche-lobe overflow (RLO). Moreover, orbital stability analysis shows tides can drive many hot Jupiters to spiral inevitably toward their host stars. Thus, the coupled processes of orbital evolution and RLO likely shape the observed distribution of close-in exoplanets and may even be responsible for producing some of the short-period rocky planets. However, the exact outcome for an overflowing planet depends on its internal response to mass loss, and the accompanying orbital evolution can act to enhance or inhibit RLO. In this study, we apply the fully-featured and robust Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics suite to model RLO of short-period gaseous planets. We show that, although the detailed evolution may depend on several properties of the planetary system, it is largely determined by the core mass of the overflowing gas giant. In particular, we find that the orbital expansion that accompanies RLO often stops and reverses at a specific maximum period that depends on the core mass. We suggest that RLO may often strand the remnant of a gas giant near this orbital period, which provides an observational prediction that can corroborate the hypothesis that short-period gas giants undergo RLO. We conduct a preliminary comparison of this prediction to the observed population of small, short-period planets and find some planets in orbits that may be consistent with this picture. To the extent that we can establish some short-period planets are indeed the remnants of gas giants, that population can elucidate the properties of gas giant cores, the properties of which remain largely unconstrained.     

Using high-resolution,multispectral imagery to assess the effect of soil properties on vegetation reflectance at an abandoned feedlot

Remotely sensed multispectral imagery, soils and graminoid samples from an abandoned cattle feedlot and adjacent wetlands were used to characterize plant vigour and soil nutrient distribution and evaluate the relationship between soil properties and vegetation reflectance. The feedlot lies on a sandy beach ridge, which likely mitigates the mobility of soil phosphorus. Soil phosphorus remains concentrated directly beneath the feedlot pens, where vegetation indices are low. In contrast, nitrate is transported through preferential pathways into the wetlands, where vegetation indices and plant vigour are high. Although spectral vegetation indices did not show any significant relationship with plant tissue nutrient concentration, the indices showed statistically significant relationships to some soil properties. Results of this study indicate that the abundance of nutrients in the soil does not necessarily enhance plant growth. This can limit the extent that remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to evaluate soil nutrients concentrations.