An Implementation of the Logarithmic Hamiltonian Method for Artificial Satellite Orbit Determination

We discuss the use of a recently discovered exact two-body leapfrog for accurate symplectic integration of perturbed two-body motion and for the computation of the state-transition matrix. We pay special attention to artificial satellite orbit determination and describe in detail the evaluation of the perturbing acceleration. Inclusion of air drag and other non-canonical forces are also discussed. The main advantage of this new formulation is conceptual simplicity, for easy programming and high accuracy for orbits with large eccentricity. The method has been evaluated in real artificial satellite orbit determinations.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and their extension to the surface

Many cut-off low (COL) climatologies have been done throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Few have focused on COL vertical depth and their link to surface cyclones that often accompany these systems. Here we extend these climatologies in order to gain an understanding of the spatial, mobility, temporal, and seasonal variability of COL extensions towards the surface. Deep COLs (dCOLs), with extension all the way to the surface, are most frequent in the autumn months, are longer lasting, are more mobile and found most frequently situated in the high latitudes. They are usually collocated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on multiple isentropic surfaces. These RWB events drive high potential vorticity air into the upper troposphere. The depths of these intrusions are also shown to be critical to the development of COL extensions with dCOLs associated with deeper intrusions into the mid-troposphere. Upper-level PV features are collocated with warm surface potential temperature anomalies which can play a critical role in surface cyclogenesis. The warm surface potential temperature features, when out of phase with coupled upper tropospheric processes (surface features lagging behind upper level processes), can inhibit surfaceward extension and result in shallow COL (sCOL) development. Composite analysis shows that dCOLs that drive their own surface low development result in the simultaneous amplification of troughs throughout the troposphere, with the surface cyclone developing within a day of the COL.

     

Recurrent transitions to Little Ice Age-like climatic regimes over the Holocene

Holocene climate variability is punctuated by episodic climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) predating the industrial-era warming. Their dating and forcing mechanisms have however remained controversial. Even more crucially, it is uncertain whether earlier events represent climatic regimes similar to the LIA. Here we produce and analyse a new 7500-year long palaeoclimate record tailored to detect LIA-like climatic regimes from northern European tree-ring data. In addition to the actual LIA, we identify LIA-like ca. 100–800 year periods with cold temperatures combined with clear sky conditions from 540 CE, 1670 BCE, 3240 BCE and 5450 BCE onwards, these LIA-like regimes covering 20% of the study period. Consistent with climate modelling, the LIA-like regimes originate from a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice North Atlantic-Arctic system and were amplified by volcanic activity (multiple eruptions closely spaced in time), tree-ring evidence pointing to similarly enhanced LIA-like regimes starting after the eruptions recorded in 1627 BCE, 536/540 CE and 1809/1815 CE. Conversely, the ongoing decline in Arctic sea-ice extent is mirrored in our data which shows reversal of the LIA-like conditions since the late nineteenth century, our record also correlating highly with the instrumentally recorded Northern Hemisphere and global temperatures over the same period. Our results bridge the gaps between low- and high-resolution, precisely dated proxies and demonstrate the efficacy of slow and fast components of the climate system to generate LIA-like climate regimes.

     

The availability of hydrogeologic data associated with areas identified by the US Geological Survey as experiencing potentially induced seismicity resulting from subsurface injection

A critical need exists for site-specific hydrogeologic data in order to determine potential hazards of induced seismicity and to manage risk. By 2015, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) had identified 17 locations in the USA that are experiencing an increase in seismicity, which may be potentially induced through industrial subsurface injection. These locations span across seven states, which vary in geological setting, industrial exposure and seismic history. Comparing the research across the 17 locations revealed patterns for addressing induced seismicity concerns, despite the differences between geographical locations. Most induced seismicity studies evaluate geologic structure and seismic data from areas experiencing changes in seismic activity levels, but the inherent triggering mechanism is the transmission of hydraulic pressure pulses. This research conducted a systematic review of whether data are available in these locations to generate accurate hydrogeologic predictions, which could aid in managing seismicity. After analyzing peer-reviewed research within the 17 locations, this research confirms a lack of site-specific hydrogeologic data availability for at-risk areas. Commonly, formation geology data are available for these sites, but hydraulic parameters for the seismically active injection and basement zones are not available to researchers conducting peer-reviewed research. Obtaining hydrogeologic data would lead to better risk management for injection areas and provide additional scientific evidential support for determining a potentially induced seismic area.     

Short note: the experimental geopotential model XGM2016

As a precursor study for the upcoming combined Earth Gravitational Model 2020 (EGM2020), the Experimental Gravity Field Model XGM2016, parameterized as a spherical harmonic series up to degree and order 719, is computed. XGM2016 shares the same combination methodology as its predecessor model GOCO05c (Fecher et al. in Surv Geophys 38(3): 571–590, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9406-y). The main difference between these models is that XGM2016 is supported by an improved terrestrial data set of \(15^\prime \times 15^\prime \) gravity anomaly area-means provided by the United States National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), resulting in significant upgrades compared to existing combined gravity field models, especially in continental areas such as South America, Africa, parts of Asia, and Antarctica. A combination strategy of relative regional weighting provides for improved performance in near-coastal ocean regions, including regions where the altimetric data are mostly unchanged from previous models. Comparing cumulative height anomalies, from both EGM2008 and XGM2016 at degree/order 719, yields differences of 26 cm in Africa and 40 cm in South America. These differences result from including additional information of satellite data, as well as from the improved ground data in these regions. XGM2016 also yields a smoother Mean Dynamic Topography with significantly reduced artifacts, which indicates an improved modeling of the ocean areas.     

Simulating estuarine nitrous oxide production by means of a dynamic model

We describe a dynamic model developed from a commercially available modeling package (ECoS-III) to simulate estuarine dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) dynamics, and consequent N(2)O production and atmospheric flux on the timescale of tidal cycles. Simulated model state variables were NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-) and N(2)O concentrations, and salinity. Model outputs were evaluated through comparison with summer field data for the Tyne estuary, UK. The model adequately reproduced the observed axial profiles of NH(4)(+), NO(3)(-) and N(2)O concentrations. Nitrification was shown to be the dominant N(2)O source and estimates of the ratios nitrification to DIN load and N(2)O emission to DIN load are considerably lower than the corresponding values adopted in global scale models of estuarine N(2)O emissions based on DIN transformations. Hence our results are consistent with the requirement imposed by atmospheric N(2)O growth rate constraints that the amount of atmospheric N(2)O arising from agriculturally related sources, including estuarine transformations of N, be revised downward.