Shallow Unconfined Flow on a Sloping Base Redux

When is the impact of a sloping base large enough to justify more complex models for an unconfined aquifer? The intuitive answer that “it depends on the magnitude of the slope” is not wholly correct. Using recent mathematical results (the Lambert W function), we explicitly solve the simple sloping base problem. This explicit solution offers insights beyond those possible using Dupuit's, Polubarinov‐Kochina's, Harr's, Child's, and others' implicit solutions. Specifically, it shows that the impact of the sloping base is best characterized by the saturated thickness divided by the change in base elevation, not by the slope.     

Introduction to “Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Part I: Modelling and Hazard Assessment”

In this introduction we briefly summarize the 14 contributions to Part I of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part I, and introduced here, cover topics directly related to tsunami mitigation such as numerical modelling, hazard assessment and databases. Part II of this special issue, Observations and Data Analysis, will be published in a subsequent volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics.     

Validation and Joint Inversion of Teleseismic Waveforms for Earthquake Source Models Using Deep Ocean Bottom Pressure Records: A Case Study of the 2006 Kuril Megathrust Earthquake

The importance of accurate tsunami simulation has increased since the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the Indian Ocean tsunami that followed it, because it is an important tool for inundation mapping and, potentially, tsunami warning. An important source of uncertainty in tsunami simulations is the source model, which is often estimated from some combination of seismic, geodetic or geological data. A magnitude 8.3 earthquake that occurred in the Kuril subduction zone on 15 November, 2006 resulted in the first teletsunami to be widely recorded by bottom pressure recorders deployed in the northern Pacific Ocean. Because these recordings were unaffected by shallow complicated bathymetry near the coast, this provides a unique opportunity to investigate whether seismic rupture models can be inferred from teleseismic waves with sufficient accuracy to be used to forecast teletsunami. In this study, we estimated the rupture model of the 2006 Kuril earthquake by inverting the teleseimic waves and used that to model the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation was then calculated by solving the linear long-wave equations. We found that the simulated 2006 Kuril tsunami compared very well to the ocean bottom recordings when simultaneously using P and long-period surface waves in the earthquake source process inversion.     

Natural hazards,disaster management and simulation: a bibliometric analysis of keyword searches

Natural Hazards - Disasters affect millions of people annually, causing large numbers of fatalities, detrimental economic impact and the displacement of communities. Policy-makers, researchers and...     

Mass Discharge in a Tracer Plume: Evaluation of the Theissen Polygon Method

A tracer plume was created within a thin aquifer by injection for 299 d of two adjacent “sub‐plumes” to represent one type of plume heterogeneity encountered in practice. The plume was monitored by snapshot sampling of transects of fully screened wells. The mass injection rate and total mass injected were known. Using all wells in each transect (0.77 m well spacing, 1.4 points/m² sampling density), the Theissen Polygon Method (TPM) yielded apparently accurate mass discharge (M_d) estimates at three transects for 12 snapshots. When applied to hypothetical sparser transects using subsets of the wells with average spacing and sampling density from 1.55 to 5.39 m and 0.70 to 0.20 points/m², respectively, the TPM accuracy depended on well spacing and location of the wells in the hypothesized transect with respect to the sub‐plumes. Potential error was relatively low when the well spacing was less than the widths of the sub‐plumes (>0.35 points/m²). Potential error increased for well spacing similar to or greater than the sub‐plume widths, or when less than 1% of the plume area was sampled. For low density sampling of laterally heterogeneous plumes, small changes in groundwater flow direction can lead to wide fluctuations in M_d estimates by the TPM. However, sampling conducted when flow is known or likely to be in a preferred direction can potentially allow more useful comparisons of M_d over multiyear time frames, such as required for performance evaluation of natural attenuation or engineered remediation systems.     

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board NASA’s twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras, while following papers will present analyses of CME propagation through the entire HI fields of view. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters – namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span – derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites do not simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes, while at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.     

The use of mantle normalization and metal ratios in the identification of the sources of platinum-group elements in various metal-rich black shales

It has been shown that Ni/Cu versus Pd/Ir and Cu/Ir versus Ni/Pd ratios, as well as mantle-normalized metal patterns can be successfully used to evaluate the effects of partial melting, crystal fractionation and sulfide saturation in mafic and ultramafic rocks. Platinum-group element (PGE) enrichments occur in Zn-, Cu- and Ni-rich black shales in a number of geological settings. These facies are generally associated with the development of continental rift structures, both without significant volcanic activity (examples in Canada, China, Finland and Poland) and with volcanic activity (Czech Republic and Namibia). Using the same element ratios as were used in mafic igneous rocks, it is evident that metal-rich black shales associated with volcanic rocks reflect the fractionation of PGEs in volcanogenic facies. It is further concluded that, in metal-rich black shales in which distributions of Ni and Cu have been altered by various processes, the Cu/Ir versus Ni/Pd and Ni/Cu versus Pd/Ir ratios plots are applicable for determination of the source of PGEs only after careful evaluation of Ni and Cu enrichments.Editorial handling: A. Brown, D. Lentz     

Silicic recharge of multiple rhyolite magmas by basaltic intrusion during the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode, New Zealand

Deposits of the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode from Tarawera Volcanic Complex record the sequential and simultaneous eruption of three discrete rhyolite magmas following a silicic recharge event related to basaltic intrusion. The episode started with basaltic eruption ( 0.01 km³ magma), and rapidly changed to a plinian eruption involving a moderate temperature (750 °C), cummingtonite-bearing rhyolite magma (T1) with a volume of  0.3 km³. Hybrid basalt/rhyolite clasts demonstrate direct basaltic intrusion that helped trigger the eruption. Crystals, shards and lapilli of two other rhyolite magmas then joined the eruption sequence. They comprise a cooler (720 °C) crystal-rich biotite–hornblende rhyolite magma (T2) ( 0.3 km³), and a hotter (780 °C), crystal-poor, pyroxene–hornblende rhyolite magma (T3) ( 4.5 km³). All mid to late-stage ash units contain various mixtures of T1, T2 and T3 components with a general increase in abundance of T3 and rapid decline of T1 with time. About 4 km³ of T3 magma was extruded as lavas at the end of the episode. Contrasts in melt composition, crystal and volatile contents, and temperatures influenced viscosity and miscibility, and thus limited pre-eruption mixing of the rhyolite magmas. The eruption sequence and the restricted direct basaltic intrusion into only one magma (T1) is consistent with the rhyolites occupying separate melt pods within a large crystal-mush zone. Melt–crystal equilibria and volatile contents in melt inclusions indicate temporary magma storage depths of < 8 km. Each of the magmas display quartz crystals containing melt inclusions that are compositionally highly evolved relative to the accompanying matrix glass, and thus point to a stage of more complete crystallisation. The matrix glass, enriched in Sr and Ti, represents a re-melting event of underlying the crystal pile induced by basaltic intrusion, presumably part of the same event that erupted scoria at the start of the eruption. This recharge rhyolite melt percolated upward and hybridised with the resident melts in each of the three magma pods. The Okareka episode rhyolites contrast with other well-documented rhyolites that are either continuously or discontinuously zoned, or have been homogenised during re-activation to a uniform composition. Rapid basalt dike intrusion to shallow levels appears to have (prematurely?) triggered the Okareka rhyolites into eruption, so that their early ponding in separate melt pods has been recorded before it could be masked by mixing or stratification had amalgamation into a larger body occurred.