Variations in temperature and extent of Atlantic Water in the northern North Atlantic during the Holocene

We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S–N transect on the Norwegian–Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10–10² years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than ±1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas–Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S–N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60–69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72–77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S–N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000–8000, 5500–3000 and 1000 and 400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Using Multiple Grids in Markov Mesh Facies Modeling

A multigrid Markov mesh model for geological facies is formulated by defining a hierarchy of nested grids and defining a Markov mesh model for each of these grids. The facies probabilities in the Markov mesh models are formulated as generalized linear models that combine functions of the grid values in a sequential neighborhood. The parameters in the generalized linear model for each grid are estimated from the training image. During simulation, the coarse patterns are first laid out, and by simulating increasingly finer grids we are able to recreate patterns at different scales. The method is applied to several tests cases and results are compared to the training image and the results of a commercially available snesim algorithm. In each test case, simulation results are compared qualitatively by visual inspection, and quantitatively by using volume fractions, and an upscaled permeability tensor. When compared to the training image, the method produces results that only have a few percent deviation from the values of the training image. When compared with the snesim algorithm the results in general have the same quality. The largest computational cost in the multigrid Markov mesh is the estimation of model parameters from the training image. This is of comparable CPU time to that of creating one snesim realization. The simulation of one realization is typically ten times faster than the estimation.     

Modification of Airflow Structure Due to Wave Breaking on a Submerged Topography

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Experimental results from a combined wind–wave tank are presented. Wind profiles and resulting wind–wave spectra are described, and an investigation of the...     

Geomorphological characterisation and interpretation of a mid-latitude glacier-like form: Hellas Planitia, Mars

We describe and interpret the surface terrain types associated with a widely-reported ∼4 km long, mid-latitude martian viscous flow feature (VFF). The feature is located in the southern hemisphere, on the poleward-facing rim of a ∼60 km-diameter crater in eastern Hellas Planitia. High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images, analysed in both 2D and 3D, reveal that the upper margin of the feature is bounded by steep (∼30°) headwalls, typically some tens of metres high, that are formed from unconsolidated material and characterised by a series of slope-parallel linear incisions. Below these incised headwalls, the feature flows at a general angle of ∼10° from a broad upper basin to a confined lower tongue that is bounded by a nested sequence of elongate raised ridges. These characteristics are typical of several VFFs in the region and are strikingly similar to moraine-bounded valley glaciers on Earth, and we sub-classify this feature as a ‘glacier-like form’ (GLF)¹. The GLF comprises five distinctive surface terrain types that contrast sharply with surface characteristics outside its bounding moraines. Four of these terrains (scaly terrain, polygonized terrain, linear terrain and mound-and-tail terrain) are located within the GLF’s innermost bounding moraine, while the fifth (rectilinear-ridge terrain) is located between its frontal moraines. These terrains are mapped, characterised and associated with possible mechanisms of formation to draw inferences about the GLF’s glaciology and glacial history. This analysis suggests that the GLF reached its maximal extent in the geologically-recent past, and that it may have been partially wet-based at that time. Subsequent to this phase, the GLF experienced an extended period of general recession that has been punctuated by several episodes of still-stand or advance. Currently, the GLF’s basin appears to be composed of a lower zone that is dominated by an exposed former glacier bed and an upper zone that may still contain a now-degraded and dust-mantled viscous mass, similar to many partially-glacierized basins on Earth.     

SDI planning using the system dynamics technique within a community of practice: lessons learnt from Tanzania

There exist major challenges in accelerating the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) planning process in the developing countries as well as advocating for politicians to support the development of SDI, due to the high complexity of SDI, lack of knowledge and experience, and limited insight in the benefits. To address these challenges, a methodology for SDI planning in Tanzania, based on the system dynamics technique and the communities of practice concept, was adopted and applied within a community consisting of experts from stakeholder organizations. The groups gathered to develop an SDI plan, while they shared their knowledge and discussed their ideas that helped their understanding of SDI. By running the system dynamics model, the development of SDI over time could be simulated that gave the planning community an insight about the future effects of today’s plans and decisions. Finally, an optimum model could be developed by refinements and improvements done with the consensus of the SDI stakeholders. This model included the components and policies that are essential for a successful SDI implementation in Tanzania and can be used as a basis for SDI planning and help to gain political support. Lessons learnt from this research were promising regarding the usability of the methodology for SDI planning in comparable countries.     

Methylation of Hg downstream from the Bonanza Hg mine,Oregon

Speciation of Hg and conversion to methyl-Hg were evaluated in stream sediment, stream water, and aquatic snails collected downstream from the Bonanza Hg mine, Oregon. Total production from the Bonanza mine was >1360 t of Hg, during mining from the late 1800s to 1960, ranking it as an intermediate sized Hg mine on an international scale. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution, transport, and methylation of Hg downstream from a Hg mine in a coastal temperate climatic zone. Data shown here for methyl-Hg, a neurotoxin hazardous to humans, are the first reported for sediment and water from this area. Stream sediment collected from Foster Creek flowing downstream from the Bonanza mine contained elevated Hg concentrations that ranged from 590 to 71,000 ng/g, all of which (except the most distal sample) exceeded the probable effect concentration (PEC) of 1060 ng/g, the Hg concentration above which harmful effects are likely to be observed in sediment-dwelling organisms. Concentrations of methyl-Hg in stream sediment collected from Foster Creek varied from 11 to 62 ng/g and were highly elevated compared to regional baseline concentrations (0.11–0.82 ng/g) established in this study. Methyl-Hg concentrations in stream sediment collected in this study showed a significant correlation with total organic C (TOC, R² = 0.62), generally indicating increased methyl-Hg formation with increasing TOC in sediment. Isotopic-tracer methods indicated that several samples of Foster Creek sediment exhibited high rates of Hg-methylation. Concentrations of Hg in water collected downstream from the mine varied from 17 to 270 ng/L and were also elevated compared to baselines, but all were below the 770 ng/L Hg standard recommended by the USEPA to protect against chronic effects to aquatic wildlife. Concentrations of methyl-Hg in the water collected from Foster Creek ranged from 0.17 to 1.8 ng/L, which were elevated compared to regional baseline sites upstream and downstream from the mine that varied from <0.02 to 0.22 ng/L. Aquatic snails collected downstream from the mine were elevated in Hg indicating significant bioavailability and uptake of Hg by these snails. Results for sediment and water indicated significant methyl-Hg formation in the ecosystem downstream from the Bonanza mine, which is enhanced by the temperate climate, high precipitation in the area, and high organic matter.     

Modelling Flow Routing in Permafrost Landscapes with TWI: An Evaluation against Site‐Specific Wetness Measurements

In northern peatlands the thawing of permafrost increasing the active layer depth and changing the hydrology may lead to feedbacks in the climate system through changes in the biogeochemistry of carbon. We are examining this association on the Stordalen peatland complex in subarctic Sweden by analyzing a DEM derived from LiDAR‐data and the calculated TWI. The DEM, with a spatial resolution of 1 m, and the TWI are evaluated against two seasons of water level measurements from 30 sites in the peatland. The TWI is calculated with a form‐based flow routing algorithm which produces a natural flow routing pattern. In permafrost wetlands the topography is the major driver and is very important even though its magnitude is low. Site‐specific wetness (SSW) measurements from the sites were compared with the different peatland types that occur in the study area, i.e. fen, internal fen and palsa. The results showed a strong correlation between the TWI and the palsa. The TWI was better at describing general patterns than site‐specific hydrology. The evaluation of spatial patterns of TWI against SSW reveal the resolution required to develop the technique to be useful for climate change studies.     

Conditioning geological surfaces to horizontal wells

Computational Geosciences - Kriging is a standard method for conditioning surfaces to observations. Kriging works for vertical wells, but may produce surfaces that cross horizontal wells between...