Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Geoacoustic and physical properties of carbonate sediments of the Lower Florida Keys

 Near-surface sediment geoacoustic and physical properties were measured from a variety of unconsolidated carbonate sediments in the Lower Florida Keys. Surficial values of compressional and shear speed correlate with sediment physical properties and near-surface acoustic reflectivity. Highest speeds (shear 125–150 m s^-1; compressional 1670–1725 m s^-1) are from sandy sediments near Rebecca Shoal and lowest speeds (shear 40–65 m s^-1; compressional 1520–1570 m s^-1) are found in soft, silty sediments which collect in sediment ponds in the Southeast Channel of the Dry Tortugas. High compressional wave attenuation is attributed to scattering of acoustic waves from heterogeneity caused by accumulation of abundant shell material and other impedance discontinuities rather than high intrinsic attenuation. Compared to siliciclastic sediments, carbonate sediment shear wave speed is high for comparable values of sediment physical properties. Sediment fabric, rather than changes due to the effects of biogeochemical processes, is responsible for these differences.     

Spatial variability in petrophysical properties in Upper Maastrichtian chalk outcrops at Stevns Klint, Denmark

The spatial variability of porosity and permeability was determined for a section in the uppermost Maastrichtian chalk exposed in the Sigerslev quarry at Stevns Klint. The aims were threefold: (1) to quantify the spatial variability pattern and its link to geology by applying systematic variogram analysis procedure, (2) to detect potential cyclicity in the petrophysical properties in this pure and overtly homogeneous chalk, and (3) to compare the section with chalk reservoirs in the North Sea in order to asses to what extent this onshore sequence has a potential as an analogue of the offshore, more deeply buried chalk reservoirs. The interval is of comparable stratigraphic age to the uppermost reservoir zones in the Tor Formation of the North Sea chalk reservoirs. The variability and spatial correlation of porosity and permeability in both horizontal and vertical directions are interpreted in a geological context and show indications of small-scale heterogeneity at 15–25 cm scale, but the clear cyclic layering described from other chalk deposits is not recognised at this locality. The investigated outcrop is not a close analogue to North Sea reservoir chalk, but some aspects are common including basic material properties, porosity/permeability trends and the variability pattern. The outcrop has a potential as analogue for some of the onshore subsurface chalk successions at shallow burial depth that form important aquifers.     

A new method for the generation of second-order random waves

In order to prevent the generation of spurious free sub- and superharmonics of random waves in a laboratory channel, the control signal for the wave board has to be derived according to a higher-order wave theory. An expression for this control signal has been derived with the perturbation method of multiple scales. It is much less complex and requires less computation time than the expressions obtained from the full second-order theory. The new method for second-order subharmonics was verified experimentally for waves with bichromatic and continuous first-order spectra. The data were analysed with the complex-harmonic principal-component analysis to reduce the influence of noise.