Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Measurement of stress effects (scope for growth) and contaminant levels in mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from the Irish Sea

The objective of this research was to quantify the impact of pollution along the coastlines of the Irish Sea. Pollution assessment was based on the combined measurement of scope for growth (SFG), and chemical contaminants in the tissues of mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from 38 coastal sites around the Irish Sea during June-July in 1996 and 1997. On the UK mainland coast, the SFG showed a general trend with a significant decline in water quality in the Liverpool and Morecambe Bay region. High water quality was recorded along the west coast of Wales, as well as southwest England and northwest Scotland (clean reference sites outside the Irish Sea). Along the coast of Ireland there was a similar trend with reduced SFG within the Irish Sea region. SFG was generally low north of Duncannon and then improved north of Belfast. The poor water quality on both sides of the Irish Sea is consistent with the prevailing hydrodynamics and the spatial distribution of contaminants associated with urban/ industrial development. The decline in SFG of mussels on both sides of the Irish Sea was associated with a general increase in contaminant levels in the mussels. Certain contaminants, including PAHs, TBT, sigmaDDT, Dieldrin, gamma-HCH, PCBs, and a few of the metals (Cd, Se, Ag, Pb), showed elevated concentrations. Many of these contaminants were particularly elevated in the coastal margins of Liverpool Bay, Morecambe Bay and Dublin Bay. A quantitative toxicological interpretation (QTI) of the combined tissue residue chemistry and SFG measurements indicated that at the majority of coastal sites, c. 50 to > 80% of the observed decline in SFG was due to PAHs as a result of fossil fuel combustion and oil spills. TBT levels were highest at major ports and harbours, but these concentrations only made a minor contribution to the overall reduction in SFG. At no sites were individual metals accumulated to concentrations that could cause a significant effect on SFG. The study identified many sites where the observed reduction in SFG was far greater than predicted from the limited number of chemical contaminants analysed, thus indicating the presence of additional 'unknown toxicants'. Sewage (containing domestic, agricultural and industrial components) appears to be an important contributor to reduced SFG and linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and As may provide suitable 'sewage markers'. There was a highly significant positive correlation between SFG and As (P < 0.001). This relationship may be due to reduced As uptake by algal food material and mussels at sites with elevated P04 concentrations (e.g. at sites with sewage inputs). Phosphate is a known competitive inhibitor of As accumulation, at least in algae. The results highlight that further research is required on 'sewage markers' in mussels. The SFG approach therefore provides a rapid, cost-effective and quantitative measure of pollution impact, as well as a means of identifying the causes through a QTI of tissue contaminants levels. It also serves to identify the presence of unidentified toxicants and areas that require further study.     

Spatial variability in petrophysical properties in Upper Maastrichtian chalk outcrops at Stevns Klint, Denmark

The spatial variability of porosity and permeability was determined for a section in the uppermost Maastrichtian chalk exposed in the Sigerslev quarry at Stevns Klint. The aims were threefold: (1) to quantify the spatial variability pattern and its link to geology by applying systematic variogram analysis procedure, (2) to detect potential cyclicity in the petrophysical properties in this pure and overtly homogeneous chalk, and (3) to compare the section with chalk reservoirs in the North Sea in order to asses to what extent this onshore sequence has a potential as an analogue of the offshore, more deeply buried chalk reservoirs. The interval is of comparable stratigraphic age to the uppermost reservoir zones in the Tor Formation of the North Sea chalk reservoirs. The variability and spatial correlation of porosity and permeability in both horizontal and vertical directions are interpreted in a geological context and show indications of small-scale heterogeneity at 15–25 cm scale, but the clear cyclic layering described from other chalk deposits is not recognised at this locality. The investigated outcrop is not a close analogue to North Sea reservoir chalk, but some aspects are common including basic material properties, porosity/permeability trends and the variability pattern. The outcrop has a potential as analogue for some of the onshore subsurface chalk successions at shallow burial depth that form important aquifers.     

A new method for the generation of second-order random waves

In order to prevent the generation of spurious free sub- and superharmonics of random waves in a laboratory channel, the control signal for the wave board has to be derived according to a higher-order wave theory. An expression for this control signal has been derived with the perturbation method of multiple scales. It is much less complex and requires less computation time than the expressions obtained from the full second-order theory. The new method for second-order subharmonics was verified experimentally for waves with bichromatic and continuous first-order spectra. The data were analysed with the complex-harmonic principal-component analysis to reduce the influence of noise.