Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java

A long history of increases in population pressure in Java has caused agricultural land use to expand and intensify. More recent land use changes caused the conversion of prime agricultural land into residential and industrial area. Results of a dynamic, regional-scale, land use change model are presented, defining the spatial distribution of these land use changes. The model is based on multi-scale modelling of the relations between land use and socio-economic and biophysical determinants. Historical validation showed that the model can adequately simulate the pattern of land use change. Future patterns of land use change between 1994 and 2010 are simulated assuming further urbanization. The results suggest that most intensive land use changes will occur in Java's lowland areas.     

Glacial advances constrained by Be exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan

Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first ¹⁰Be exposure ages for three prominent (> 10⁷ m³) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three ¹⁰Be ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11–15 ka, which is consistent with two ¹⁴C ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a ¹⁰Be age of 63–67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable ¹⁰Be ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of ¹⁰Be. Two ¹⁰Be ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and ¹⁰Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4–0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential.     

Orbital Evolution of Příbram and Neuschwanstein

The orbital evolution of the two meteorites Příbram and Neuschwanstein on almost identical orbits and also several thousand clones were studied in the framework of the N-body problem for 5,000 years into the past. The meteorites moved on very similar orbits during the whole investigated interval. We have also searched for photographic meteors and asteroids moving on similar orbits. There were five meteors found in the IAU MDC database and six NEAs with currently similar orbits to Příbram and Neuschwanstein. However, only one meteor 161E1 and one asteroid 2002 QG46 had a similar orbital evolution over the last 2,000 years.     

Babbling brook to thunderous torrent: Using sound to monitor river stage

The passive, ambient sound above the water from a river has previously untapped potential for determining flow characteristics such as stage. Measuring sub-aerial sound could provide a new, efficient way to continuously monitor river stage, without the need for in-stream infrastructure. Previous published work has suggested that there might be a relationship between sound and river stage, but the analysis has been restricted to a narrow range of flow conditions and river morphologies. We present a method to determine site suitability and the process of how to record and analyse sound. Data collected along a 500 m length of the River Washburn during July 2019 is used to determine what makes a site suitable for sound monitoring. We found that sound is controlled by roughness elements in the channel, such as a boulder or weir, which influences the sound produced. On the basis of these findings, we collect audio recordings from six sites around the northeast of England, covering a range of flow conditions and different roughness elements, since 2019. We use data from those sites collected during storms Ciara and Dennis to produce a relationship between this sound and river stage. Our analysis has shown a positive relationship between an R² of 0.73 and 0.99 in all rivers, but requires careful site selection and data processing to achieve the best results. We introduce a filter that is capable of isolating a river's sound from other environmental sound. Future work in examining the role of these roughness elements is required to understand the full extent of this technique. By demonstrating that sound can operate as a hydrometric tool, we suggest that sound monitoring could be used to provide cost-effective monitoring devices, either to detect relative change in a river or, after more research, a reliable stage measurement.     

The effect of mechanical waves on empirical solar models

Empirical solar models contain the effect of heating due to radiative energy loss from acoustic waves. We estimate here the temperature difference between the radiative equilibrium model and the empirical model. At optical depth ₅₀₀₀ = 0.1 this difference is small, but near the temperature minimum (₅₀₀₀ = 10^–4) it reaches between 53 and 83 K. The temperature difference between the equator and the poles caused by a hypothetical difference in the heating is estimated.     

Post-breakup basaltic magmatism along the East Greenland Tertiary rifted margin

Mafic and ultramafic intrusions in East Greenland adjacent to the offshore Greenland–Iceland ridge were emplaced 5–9 My after continental breakup at 55 Ma [1]. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry are reported for cumulus clinopyroxene from these intrusions, and the data are used to estimate REE abundance in equilibrium melts using available partitioning data. Estimated equilibrium melts from intrusions have strongly fractionated REE patterns with Nd/Dy(N) in the range 2 to 5.6 and Yb/Dy(N) 0.55 to 0.92, similar to values for coeval basalts. These melts have markedly higher Nd/Dy(N) than earlier breakup related flood basalts. The moderately low Yb/Dy(N) for the post-breakup volcanism is indicative of residual garnet in the source, while their high Nd/Dy(N) ratios can best be explained by aggregating low degree melts from a light-REE-enriched garnet- and spinel-bearing mantle source. We also report He, Sr, and Nd isotopic data for the intrusions. The highest ³He/⁴He ratios (>10 R/R_a) are found in the samples whose REE data reflect the largest proportion of melts from a garnet-bearing source, and having Sr and Nd isotopic compositions identical with the radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotope end of the Iceland compositional field. There is no indication of a MORB-type mantle in the source of the intrusions. We postulate that post-breakup volcanism along the East Greenland coastline reflects the increasing proximity of the mantle plume to the East Greenland continental margin. The low degree of melting at high mean pressure inferred for the parental melts for the intrusions may reflect re-thickening of the lithosphere, which in turn was caused by the vigorous volcanism during breakup, with accompanying depletion of upper mantle and underplating of the crust at the continental margin.     

Doppler radar observation, CG lightning activity and aerial survey of a multiple downburst in southern Germany on 23 March 2001

Two downburst events from one thunderstorm are investigated, which occurred on 23 March 2001, in Germany's climatologic annual minimum of downburst activity. Observations by two Doppler radars are combined with hail reports, ground lightning detection and an aerial survey conducted after the event. The downburst-producing storm had formed at a synoptic convergence line within the warm sector of a cyclone. It had a remarkably high propagation speed of up to 31 m s^− 1 corresponding to the mid-tropospheric flow. Thus, by superposition with the storm motion, even two weak downbursts were sufficient to cause the observed damage of F1 and F2 intensity, respectively. While in its late stages, the storm was dynamically characterized by lower- and mid-tropospheric divergence; at about the time of the first downburst, a mesocyclonic vortex signature was verified. Aside from mid-tropospheric dry air entrainment, a thermodynamic explanation for the triggering of the two downbursts by melting of small hail according to recent findings by Atlas et al. [Atlas, D., Ulbrich, C.W., Williams, C.R., 2004. Physical origin of a wet microburst: observations and theory. J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 1186–1196] appears probable. Despite the lack of warnings to the public, the storm's potential for hail and strong straight-line winds was detected by the German weather service radar software CONRAD more than a half hour before the downbursts occurred.     

Measurement of stress effects (scope for growth) and contaminant levels in mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from the Irish Sea

The objective of this research was to quantify the impact of pollution along the coastlines of the Irish Sea. Pollution assessment was based on the combined measurement of scope for growth (SFG), and chemical contaminants in the tissues of mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from 38 coastal sites around the Irish Sea during June-July in 1996 and 1997. On the UK mainland coast, the SFG showed a general trend with a significant decline in water quality in the Liverpool and Morecambe Bay region. High water quality was recorded along the west coast of Wales, as well as southwest England and northwest Scotland (clean reference sites outside the Irish Sea). Along the coast of Ireland there was a similar trend with reduced SFG within the Irish Sea region. SFG was generally low north of Duncannon and then improved north of Belfast. The poor water quality on both sides of the Irish Sea is consistent with the prevailing hydrodynamics and the spatial distribution of contaminants associated with urban/ industrial development. The decline in SFG of mussels on both sides of the Irish Sea was associated with a general increase in contaminant levels in the mussels. Certain contaminants, including PAHs, TBT, sigmaDDT, Dieldrin, gamma-HCH, PCBs, and a few of the metals (Cd, Se, Ag, Pb), showed elevated concentrations. Many of these contaminants were particularly elevated in the coastal margins of Liverpool Bay, Morecambe Bay and Dublin Bay. A quantitative toxicological interpretation (QTI) of the combined tissue residue chemistry and SFG measurements indicated that at the majority of coastal sites, c. 50 to > 80% of the observed decline in SFG was due to PAHs as a result of fossil fuel combustion and oil spills. TBT levels were highest at major ports and harbours, but these concentrations only made a minor contribution to the overall reduction in SFG. At no sites were individual metals accumulated to concentrations that could cause a significant effect on SFG. The study identified many sites where the observed reduction in SFG was far greater than predicted from the limited number of chemical contaminants analysed, thus indicating the presence of additional 'unknown toxicants'. Sewage (containing domestic, agricultural and industrial components) appears to be an important contributor to reduced SFG and linear alkylbenzenes (LABs) and As may provide suitable 'sewage markers'. There was a highly significant positive correlation between SFG and As (P < 0.001). This relationship may be due to reduced As uptake by algal food material and mussels at sites with elevated P04 concentrations (e.g. at sites with sewage inputs). Phosphate is a known competitive inhibitor of As accumulation, at least in algae. The results highlight that further research is required on 'sewage markers' in mussels. The SFG approach therefore provides a rapid, cost-effective and quantitative measure of pollution impact, as well as a means of identifying the causes through a QTI of tissue contaminants levels. It also serves to identify the presence of unidentified toxicants and areas that require further study.