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Jan-Gunnar Winther Oddbjørn Bruland Knut Sand Sebastian Gerland David Marechal Boris Ivanov Piotr Gøowacki Max König 《Polar research》2003,22(2):125-144
This paper summarizes the most significant snow-related research that has been conducted in Svalbard. Most of the research has been performed during the 1990s and includes investigations of snow distribution, snow-melt, snow pack characteristics, remote sensing of snow and biological studies where snow conditions play an important role. For example, studies have shown regional trends with about 50% higher amounts of snow accumulation at the east coast of Spitsbergen compared to the west coast. Further, the accumulation rates are about twice as high in the south compared to the north. On average, the increase in accumulation with elevation is 97 mm water equivalents per 100 m increase in elevation. Several researchers reported melt rates, which are primarily driven by incoming short-wave radiation, in the range of 10-20 mm/day during spring. Maximum melt rates close to 70 mm/day have been measured. In addition to presenting an overview of research activities, we discuss new, unpublished results in areas where considerable progress is being made. These are i) modelling of snow distribution, ii) modelling of snowmelt runoff and iii) monitoring of snow coverage by satellite imagery. We also identify some weaknesses in current research activities. They are lacks of i) integration between various studies, ii) comparative studies with other Arctic regions, iii) applying local field studies in models that can be used to study larger areas of Svalbard and, finally, iv) using satellite remote sensing data for operational monitoring purposes. 相似文献
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A reconstruction of deglaciation and associated sea-level changes on northern James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, based on lithostratigraphical and geomorphological studies, shows that the initial deglaciation of presently ice-free areas occurred slightly before 7400 14C yr BP. Sea-level in connection with the deglaciation was around 30 m a.s.l. A glacier readvance in Brandy Bay, of at least 7 km, with the initial 3 km over land, reached a position off the present coast at ca. 4600 yr BP. The culmination of the advance was of short duration, and by 4300 yr BP the coastal lowlands again were ice-free. A distinct marine level at 16–18 m a.s.l. was contemporaneous with or slightly post-dates the Brandy Bay advance, thus indicating the relative sea-level around 4600–4500 yr BP. Our results from James Ross Island confirm that over large areas in this part of Antarctica the last deglaciation occurred late. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Overpressure generation is a function of the rates of sedimentation, compaction, fluid generation from kerogen and dehydration of minerals, and most importantly the lateral distribution of permeability within a basin as this controls lateral drainage. Sedimentary basins, however, are typically highly heterogeneous with respect to primary sedimentary facies, diagenesis and tectonic development. While fluid flow models based on idealised homogeneous basins may further our understanding of the processes that influence overpressure development, the results are very sensitive to the distribution of rock properties, particularly permeability. The absolute permeability of sedimentary rocks varies from more than 1 Darcy to less than 0.01 nanodarcy (nD) (10−11 Darcy). 相似文献
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Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya 下载免费PDF全文
The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km2 headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty2) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. The ability of indigenous societies and their activities to respond to change is widely recognized to be dependent on several factors, such as socioeconomic forces and aspects of governance, all of which have long historical backgrounds. However, although historians constantly address questions about human societies, there have been very few historical studies on their resilience, vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Here, using historical sources, we analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century. We demonstrate that although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today. The foremost adaptation strategy was, and still is, the flexible use of pasture area, and the clearest constraints during the 19th century were the loss of authority over the land and the imposed regulation of reindeer management-both of which were strongly connected to the process of colonization.