Coupled dynamic analysis of a mini TLP: Comparison with measurements

The dynamically coupled interaction between the hull of a floating platform and its risers and tendons plays an important role in the global motions of the platform and the tension loads in the tendons and risers. This is an especially critical design issue in the frequency ranges outside the wave frequencies of significant energy content. This study examines the importance of this coupled dynamic interaction and the effectiveness of different approaches for their prediction. A numerical code, named COUPLE, has been developed for computing the motions and tensions pertaining to a moored floating structure positioned and restrained by its mooring/tendon and riser systems. In this study the experimentally measured motions of a mini-TLP are compared with those computed using COUPLE and alternative predictions based upon quasi-static analysis. The comparisons confirm that COUPLE is able to predict the dynamic interaction between the hull and its tendon and riser systems while the related quasi-static analysis fails. The comparisons also show that wave loads on the mini-TLP can be accurately predicted using the Morison equation provided that the wavelength of incident waves is much longer than the diameters of the columns and pontoons and that the wave kinematics used are sufficiently accurate. Although these findings are based upon the case of a mini-TLP, they are expected to be relevant to a wide range of floating or compliant deepwater structures.     

Decomposing the cascade of uncertainty in risk assessments for urban flooding reflecting critical decision-making issues

We analyze the response of Kenyan maize yields to near-term climate change and explore potential mitigation options. We model county level yields as a function of rainfall and temperature during a period of increased regional warming and drying (1989–2008). We then do a counter factual analysis by comparing existing maize yields from 2000 to 2008 to what yields might have been if observed warming and drying trends had not occurred. We also examine maize yields based on projected 2026–2040 climate trends. Without the observed warming and drying trends, Eastern Kenya would have had an 8% increase in maize yields, which in turn would have led to a net production increase of 500,000 metric tons. In Western Kenya, the magnitude of change is higher but the relative changes in predicted values are smaller. If warming and drying trends continue, we expect future maize yields to decline by 11% in Eastern Kenya (vs. 7% in Western Kenya). We also examine whether these future losses might be offset through agricultural development. For that analysis, we use a household panel dataset (2000, 2005) with measurements of individual farm plot yields, inputs, and outputs. We find that under a scenario of aggressive adoption of hybrid seeds and fertilizer usage coupled with warming and drying trends, yields in Western Kenya might increase by 6% while those in Eastern Kenya could increase by 14%. This increase in yields might be larger if there is a corresponding increase in usage of drought-tolerant hybrids. However, wide prediction intervals across models highlight the uncertainty in these outcomes and scenarios.     

On the influence of kriging parameters on the cartographic output—A study in mapping subglacial topography

Geostatistics provides a suite of methods, summarized as kriging, to analyze a finite data set to describe a continuous property of the Earth. Kriging methods consist of moving window optimum estimation techniques, which are based on a least-squares principle and use a spatial structure function, usually the variogram. Applications of kriging techniques have become increasingly wide-spread, with ordinary kriging and universal kriging being the most popular ones. The dependence of the final map or model on the input, however, is not generally understood. Herein we demonstrate how changes in the kriging parameters and the neighborhood search affect the cartographic result. Principles are illustrated through a glaciological study. The objective is to map ice thickness and subglacial topography of Storglaciären, Kebnekaise Massif, northern Sweden, from several sets of radio-echo soundings and hot water drillings. New maps are presented.     

Improved land tenure not the driver of economic development in a Vietnamese community

During the restructuring of the Vietnamese economy in 1986, the Communist party of Vietnam (CPV) took the decision to leave central planning and build a market economy in Vietnam. In order to promote rural development and deal with deforestation, poverty and declining agricultural profitability, the government implemented the forestland allocation policies (FLA) and started a process of decentralization. This research note examines the impact of FLA policies on the agricultural practices of an upland community in central Vietnam and discusses the effects of increased tenure security. It is shown that the promotion of a sedentary production system has altered the sustainability of swidden agriculture leading to declining profitability and that a transition towards new crops and specialized crop cultivation has compensated for the loss. Furthermore, it is argued that the FLA policies have increased the villagers’ incentive to invest, their access to credit and the forest area of the village, but that the CPV has been the main driver of these changes rather than the increased tenure security.     

Cyanobacteria as a trigger for increased primary productivity during sapropel formation in the Baltic Sea—a study of the Ancylus/Litorina transition

A sediment sequence from the Gotland Basin, representing the Ancylus Lake/Litorina Sea transition, was analysed for pigments, stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N), diatoms and carbon and nitrogen content. The negative correlation between the cyanobacterial specific pigment zeaxanthin and δ¹⁵N supports the hypothesis that cyanobacteria in the early Litorina Sea indeed were nitrogen fixers. Their incorporation of nitrogen could have acted as a trigger for eutrophication during the Litorina Sea stage of the Baltic Sea. As cyanobacteria normally flourish in eutrophicated waters, the increasing concentrations of zeaxanthin during early Litorina Sea also corroborate that high primary production was an important part of the formation of organic rich (sapropel) sediments in the Baltic Sea. The first occurrence pre-dates the formation of laminated sediments, but the peaks of both zeaxanthin and organic carbon are within laminated sequences. This implies that the oxygen conditions of the bottom water also play a major role in the formation of sapropel sediments.     

Separation of residual ocean tide signals in a collinear analysis of Geosat altimetry

The effects of residual ocean tide signals on altimetric mesoscale variability estimates are analyzed in the north east Atlantic region using one year of Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The variability is evaluated along collinear tracks and covariance functions are determined. Initial results show that the average variability is about 10 cm. Variability values of 15–20 cm are found between Iceland and the Faeroe Islands and values up to 1/2 m are found near the coast of the UK. Then a procedure for estimation of ocean tide signals combined with the collinear analyses was tested. A separation of the estimated tide residuals associated with M₂, S₂, and N₂ resulted in a significant reduction of the variability. The average variability decreased to 5 cm and the temporal correlations vanished. A reduction of the large variability values from 15–50 cm to 5–10 cm demonstrates that significant residual ocean tide signals can be estimated and removed efficiently in a collinear analysis of the mesoscale ocean variability.     

Investigating CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-enhanced oil recovery potential for a mature oil field: a case study based on Ankleshwar oil field,Cambay Basin,India

CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is an upcoming technology in India. At present, no Indian field is under CO₂-EOR and implementation of this technique to a mature oil field needs a rigorous study. In the present work, we made an attempt to investigate the CO₂-EOR potential of a mature oil field, situated in Cambay Basin, India. The field was put on production in 1961, and it has produced approximately 65.36 MMt oil during massive water flooding, leading to residual oil reserves of 6.49 MMt. The operator of the field is interested in incremental oil recovery from this field by injecting CO₂. This requires estimation of incremental oil recovery potential of the field by carrying out systematic study. We, therefore, developed a conceptual model inspired by Ankleshwar oil field of Cambay Basin using available information provided by the field operator and carried out systematic studies to establish an optimized strategy for CO₂ injection. To achieve this goal, we investigated the effect of various operational parameters on oil recovery efficiency of our conceptual model and selected optimum parameters for reservoir simulations. Simulation results clearly indicate that the field can be a good candidate for CO₂-EOR, and an additional oil recovery of 10.4% of hydrocarbon pore volume is feasible. Major outcome of the study is an optimized black-oil simulation model, which is in good agreement with the fine grid compositional model of high accuracy. The proposed black-oil model can easily be implemented and updated compared with compute intensive finer compositional simulation model.