Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation estimation using a preliminary GOCE gravity model

The Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission measures Earth’s gravity field with an unprecedented accuracy at short spatial scales. In doing so, it promises to significantly advance our ability to determine the ocean’s general circulation. In this study, an initial gravity model from GOCE, based on just 2 months of data, is combined with the recent DTU10MSS mean sea surface to construct a global mean dynamic topography (MDT) model. The GOCE MDT clearly displays the gross features of the ocean’s steady-state circulation. More significantly, the improved gravity model provided by the GOCE mission has enhanced the resolution and sharpened the boundaries of those features compared with earlier satellite only solutions. Calculation of the geostrophic surface currents from the MDT reveals improvements for all of the ocean’s major current systems. In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream is stronger and more clearly defined, as are the Labrador and the Greenland currents. Furthermore, the finer scale features, such as eddies, meanders and branches of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current system are visible. Similar improvements are seen also in the North Pacific Ocean, where the Kuroshio and its extension are well represented. In the Southern hemisphere, both the Agulhas and the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence current systems are well defined, and in the Southern ocean the Antarctic Circumpolar Current appears enhanced. The results of this preliminary analysis, using an initial GOCE gravity model, clearly demonstrate the potential of the GOCE mission. Already, at this early stage of the mission, the resolution of the MDT has been improved and the estimated surface current speeds have been increased compared with a GRACE satellite-only MDT. Future GOCE gravity models are expected to build further upon this early success.     

Reindeer management during the colonization of Sami lands: A long-term perspective of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. The ability of indigenous societies and their activities to respond to change is widely recognized to be dependent on several factors, such as socioeconomic forces and aspects of governance, all of which have long historical backgrounds. However, although historians constantly address questions about human societies, there have been very few historical studies on their resilience, vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Here, using historical sources, we analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century. We demonstrate that although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today. The foremost adaptation strategy was, and still is, the flexible use of pasture area, and the clearest constraints during the 19th century were the loss of authority over the land and the imposed regulation of reindeer management-both of which were strongly connected to the process of colonization.

Terminology

Throughout this paper we use the terms reindeer management and reindeer pastoralism interchangeably. Sami reindeer pastoralism has been described as a complex system with two different aspects of management: herding and husbandry. Husbandry has been defined as the accumulations of profit whereas herding has been defined as the control of the animals in the terrain (Paine, 1970, p. 53). In a Swedish context husbandry questions concerning slaughter and castration of reindeer were discussed within the household and herding matters were resolved jointly within the traditional working community Siida. The Siida consisted of households working together on traditional pasturelands and these constellations were grouped together into administrative reindeer pasture districts (Sami villages) ( [Ingold, 1978], [Fellman, 1910] and [Beach, 1981]).     

Large-scale oil-in-ice experiment in the Barents Sea: monitoring of oil in water and MetOcean interactions

A large-scale field experiment took place in the marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea in May 2009. Fresh oil (7000 L) was released uncontained between the ice floes to study oil weathering and spreading in ice and surface water. A detailed monitoring of oil-in-water and ice interactions was performed throughout the six-day experiment. In addition, meteorological and oceanographic data were recorded for monitoring of the wind speed and direction, air temperature, currents and ice floe movements. The monitoring showed low concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbons and the predicted acute toxicity indicated that the acute toxicity was low. The ice field drifted nearly 80 km during the experimental period, and although the oil drifted with the ice, it remained contained between the ice floes.     

Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas

Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate.Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related?The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised.     

The stabilisation of wet sediment cores by means of a polyethylene glycol/freeze-drying treatment for display and permanent storage

A reversible method is presented to transform waterlogged sediment cores into dry and stable specimens which can go on exhibition or into permanent storage, needing no special precautions. Wet sediment core segments are bath-impregnated with polyethylene glycol of molecular weight 3,350 (PEG 3,350) dissolved in water. The samples are then subjected to a freeze-drying process, during which the PEG forms a stabilising and bonding porous network structure in the capillary system of the sediment. Standard sediment cores at least 1 m long become strong enough to stand upright. Sediment types ranging from muddy deep-sea sediments to very coarse littoral Halimeda sand were successfully stabilised. For standard cores of 10-cm diameters split length-wise, impregnation times vary from 2 weeks for coarse sand to 6–10 weeks for more compacted sediments. With regard to the stability of the samples and the visual clarity of detail, best results were obtained by impregnation with 25 to 60% solutions of PEG 3,350, coarse sediments needing more PEG than finer ones. Colour changes are systematic – the processed samples are lighter in appearance and the contrasts are enhanced, but there is no serious shift in colour tones. The PEG can easily be re-dissolved and washed out of the sediments. Display specimens can thus be made available for research again.     

The North Taymyr ice-marginal zone, Arctic Siberia—a preliminary overview and dating

The North Taymyr ice-marginal zone (NTZ) is a complex of glacial, glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine deposits, laid down on the northwestern Taymyr Peninsula in northernmost Siberia, along the front of ice sheets primarily originating on the Kara Sea shelf. It was originally recognised from satellite radar images by Russian scientists; however, before the present study, it had not been investigated in any detail. The ice sheets have mainly inundated Taymyr from the northwest, and the NTZ can be followed for 700–750 km between 75°N and 77°N, mostly 80–100 km inland from the present Kara Sea coast.The ice-marginal zone is best developed in its central parts, ca. 100 km on each side of the Lower Taymyr River, and has there been studied by us in four areas. In two of these, the ice sheet ended on land, whereas in the two others, it mainly terminated into ice-dammed lakes. The base of the NTZ is a series of up to 100-m-high and 2-km-wide ridges, usually consisting of redeposited marine silts. These ridges are still to a large extent ice-cored; however, the present active layer rarely penetrates to the ice surface. Upon these main ridges, smaller ridges of till and glaciofluvial material are superimposed. Related to these are deltas corresponding to two generations of ice-dammed lakes, with shore levels at 120–140 m and ca. 80 m a.s.l. These glacial lakes drained southwards, opposite to the present-day pattern, via the Taymyr River valley into the Taymyr Lake basin and, from there, most probably westwards to the southern Kara Sea shelf.The basal parts of the NTZ have not been dated; however, OSL dates of glaciolacustrine deltas indicate an Early–Middle Weichselian age for at least the superimposed ridges. The youngest parts of the NTZ are derived from a thin ice sheet (less than 300 m thick near the present coast) inundating the lowlands adjacent to the lower reaches of the Taymyr River. The glacial ice from this youngest advance is buried under only ca. 0.5 m of melt-out till and is exposed by hundreds of shallow slides. This final glaciation is predated by glacially redeposited marine shells aged ca. 20,000 BP (¹⁴C) and postdated by terrestrial plant material from ca. 11,775 and 9500 BP (¹⁴C)–giving it a last global glacial maximum (LGM; Late Weichselian) age.