Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reindeer management during the colonization of Sami lands: A long-term perspective of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. The ability of indigenous societies and their activities to respond to change is widely recognized to be dependent on several factors, such as socioeconomic forces and aspects of governance, all of which have long historical backgrounds. However, although historians constantly address questions about human societies, there have been very few historical studies on their resilience, vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Here, using historical sources, we analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century. We demonstrate that although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today. The foremost adaptation strategy was, and still is, the flexible use of pasture area, and the clearest constraints during the 19th century were the loss of authority over the land and the imposed regulation of reindeer management-both of which were strongly connected to the process of colonization.

Terminology

Throughout this paper we use the terms reindeer management and reindeer pastoralism interchangeably. Sami reindeer pastoralism has been described as a complex system with two different aspects of management: herding and husbandry. Husbandry has been defined as the accumulations of profit whereas herding has been defined as the control of the animals in the terrain (Paine, 1970, p. 53). In a Swedish context husbandry questions concerning slaughter and castration of reindeer were discussed within the household and herding matters were resolved jointly within the traditional working community Siida. The Siida consisted of households working together on traditional pasturelands and these constellations were grouped together into administrative reindeer pasture districts (Sami villages) ( [Ingold, 1978], [Fellman, 1910] and [Beach, 1981]).     

Large-scale oil-in-ice experiment in the Barents Sea: monitoring of oil in water and MetOcean interactions

A large-scale field experiment took place in the marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea in May 2009. Fresh oil (7000 L) was released uncontained between the ice floes to study oil weathering and spreading in ice and surface water. A detailed monitoring of oil-in-water and ice interactions was performed throughout the six-day experiment. In addition, meteorological and oceanographic data were recorded for monitoring of the wind speed and direction, air temperature, currents and ice floe movements. The monitoring showed low concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbons and the predicted acute toxicity indicated that the acute toxicity was low. The ice field drifted nearly 80 km during the experimental period, and although the oil drifted with the ice, it remained contained between the ice floes.     

The origin of decoupled Hf-Nd isotope compositions in Eoarchean rocks from southern West Greenland

Radiogenic isotope compositions of Hf and Nd are typically coupled in Phanerozoic and Proterozoic mafic rocks due to a similar behaviour of Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd during mantle melting. Eoarchean rocks, for instance those from southern West Greenland, exhibit an apparent decoupling of Hf and Nd isotope compositions. This apparent decoupling may either indicate metamorphic disturbance or, alternatively, mirror early differentiation processes in the silicate Earth. To evaluate the issue, we performed combined measurements of Hf-Nd isotope compositions together with major and trace element concentrations for well preserved >3720 to >3800 Ma old tholeiitic metabasalts and gabbros from the ∼3700 Ma and ∼3800 Ma old terranes of the Isua Supracrustal Belt, southern West Greenland. In contrast to younger mafic rocks, calculated initial εHf-εNd values of the Isua tholeiites show similar spreads and are both near chondritic to strongly depleted (−0.7 to +6.3 and −0.8 to +4.4, respectively), also in contrast to previously reported more depleted signatures in nearby boninite-like metabasalts of the Garbenschiefer unit. An evaluation of alteration effects based on preserved major and trace element arrays reveals pristine magmatic trends and therefore the measured isotope compositions indeed in most cases characterize contrasting Eoarchean mantle sources. In accord with this view, compositions of the Isua metabasalts yield Eoarchean regression ages in Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf isochron spaces, overlapping with emplacement ages inferred from crosscutting relationships with tonalites. Lutetium-Hf systematics of the Isua metabasalts studied here, yield clear isochron relationships. For both terranes, there is some scatter in Sm-Nd space, indicating early disturbance of the Sm-Nd system close in time to the extrusion ages, possibly by seafloor alteration. Trace element compositions of the metabasalts indicate an arc setting and a strong source overprint by melt-like subduction components. It is likely, that the source overprint may have caused partial decoupling of the εHf-εNd values, due to selective addition of Nd as observed in modern subduction settings. In this case, the most radiogenic initial εNd and εHf isotope values characterize the most depleted mantle sources, and less radiogenic values would reflect increased contributions of isotopically more enriched subduction components. However, the most depleted samples still exhibit decoupled Hf-Nd compositions, making a case for the presence of even older mantle heterogeneities. A proposed superchondritic composition of the silicate Earth (SCHEM), however, cannot account for the most depleted sample compositions. Conversely, a depleted upper mantle formed by crystallization of perovskite-rich cumulates in the early Hadean may well explain these observed compositions. A literature survey reveals an overlap in initial Hf-Nd compositions between southern West Greenland TTGs and the metabasalts analyzed here. This overlap suggests a genetic relationship between these lithologies, where the TTGs may have inherited their unusual Hf-Nd compositions from mafic precursors isotopically similar in composition to the Isua tholeiites.     

Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas

Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate.Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related?The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

The stabilisation of wet sediment cores by means of a polyethylene glycol/freeze-drying treatment for display and permanent storage

A reversible method is presented to transform waterlogged sediment cores into dry and stable specimens which can go on exhibition or into permanent storage, needing no special precautions. Wet sediment core segments are bath-impregnated with polyethylene glycol of molecular weight 3,350 (PEG 3,350) dissolved in water. The samples are then subjected to a freeze-drying process, during which the PEG forms a stabilising and bonding porous network structure in the capillary system of the sediment. Standard sediment cores at least 1 m long become strong enough to stand upright. Sediment types ranging from muddy deep-sea sediments to very coarse littoral Halimeda sand were successfully stabilised. For standard cores of 10-cm diameters split length-wise, impregnation times vary from 2 weeks for coarse sand to 6–10 weeks for more compacted sediments. With regard to the stability of the samples and the visual clarity of detail, best results were obtained by impregnation with 25 to 60% solutions of PEG 3,350, coarse sediments needing more PEG than finer ones. Colour changes are systematic – the processed samples are lighter in appearance and the contrasts are enhanced, but there is no serious shift in colour tones. The PEG can easily be re-dissolved and washed out of the sediments. Display specimens can thus be made available for research again.