Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia

Abstract

The Baker basin (27 000 km²) is located in one of the most pristine and remote areas of the planet. Its hydrological regime is poised to undergo dramatic changes in the near future due to hydropower development and climate change. The basin contains the second-largest lake in South America, and part of a major icefield. This study documents the natural baseline of the Baker River basin, discusses the main hydrological modes and analyses the potential for sustainable management. Annual precipitation varies several-fold from the eastern Patagonian steppes to the North Patagonian Icefield. The westernmost sub-basins are strongly governed by glacier melt with a peak discharge in the austral summer (January–March). The easternmost sub-basins have a much more seasonal response governed by quicker snowmelt in spring (November–December), while they exhibit low flows typical for semi-arid regions during summer and autumn. Topography, vegetation and wetlands may also influence streamflow. The strong spatio-temporal gradients and variability highlight the need for further monitoring, particularly in the headwaters, especially given the severe changes these basins are expected to undergo. The great diversity of hydrological controls and climate change pose significant challenges for hydrological prediction and management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dussaillant, J.A., Buytaert, W., Meier, C., and Espinoza, F. 2012. Hydrological regime of remote catchments with extreme gradients under accelerated change: the Baker basin in Patagonia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1530–1542.     

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.     

Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers,related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability

Abstract

The discharge variability of the main rivers that drain the Guyana Shield is analysed over the last 50 years using cross-wavelet, coherence and composite analysis involving oceanic and atmospheric variables. We highlight the overall hydro-climatological homogeneity of this region that allowed us to focus on the longest discharge time series available. Therefore, a wavelet cross-analysis was carried out between monthly and seasonal Maroni River discharge at the Langa Tabiki station and selected climate indices. This confirms a strong relationship between the hydrology of the Guyana Shield and the Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. There is evidence of intermittent influence, of between inter-annual and near decadal scales, of the Atlantic SST fluctuations, in particular around 1970 and 1990. Finally, we show that the links between oceanic regions and high discharge in the rivers of Guyana are realized through the reinforcement of the Walker and Hadley cells between the Amazon and the adjacent oceans and through decreased trade winds and monsoon flux that favour the persistence of humidity over the Guyana Shield.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Labat, D., Espinoza, J.-C., Ronchail, J., Cochonneau, G., de Oliveira, E., Doudou, J.C. and Guyot, J.-L., 2012. Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers, related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1081–1091.     

Melted snow volume control in the snowmelt runoff model using a snow water equivalent statistically based model

Snowmelt is an important component of the river discharge in mountain environments. In the past 40 years, the snowmelt dynamics has been mostly evaluated using degree‐day‐based models like the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). This model has no control on the volume of the melting snow, even if SRM includes as data input the snow‐covered area. This lack explains why the application of SRM may lead to inaccurate snowmelt volume estimations, even if the discharge volumes are accurately reproduced. Here we introduce in SRM the control on the melted snow volume and consider it in the determination of SRM parameters. The total snow volume, accumulated at the end of winter season, is evaluated by a snow water equivalent statistically based model, SWE‐SEM, and used as an estimate of the melting snow during the summer season. The benefit derived from the introduction of the control on the melting snow volume was investigated in the Mallero basin (northern Italy) for the 2003 and 2004 snow melting seasons. The analysis compares the model's results adopting different parameter sets, both considering and ignoring the control on the melting snow volume. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large-scale circulation patterns and related rainfall in the Amazon Basin: a neuronal networks approach

This study describes the main circulation patterns (CP) in the Amazonian Basin over the 1975–2002 period and their relationship with rainfall variability. CPs in the Amazonian Basin have been computed for each season from the ERA-40 daily 850?hPa winds using an approach combining artificial neural network (Self Organizing Maps) and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification. A 6 to 8 cluster solutions (depending on the season considered) is shown to yield an integrated view of the complex regional circulation variability. For austral fall, winter and spring the temporal evolution between the different CPs shows a clear tendency to describe a cycle, with southern wind anomalies and their convergence with the trade winds progressing northward from the La Plata Basin to the Amazon Basin. This sequence is strongly related to eastward moving extra tropical perturbations and their incursion toward low latitude that modulate the geopotential and winds over South America and its adjoining oceans. During Austral summer, CPs are less spatially and temporally organized compared to other seasons, principally due to weaker extra tropical perturbations and more frequent shallow low situations. Each of these CPs is shown to be associated with coherent northward moving regional rainfall patterns (both in in situ data and ERA-40 reanalysis) and convective activity. However, our results reveals that precipitation variability is better reproduced by ERA-40 in the southern part of the Amazonian Basin than in the northern part, where rainfall variability is likely to be more constrained by local and subdaily processes (e.g. squall lines) that could be misrepresented in the reanalysis dataset. This analysis clearly illustrates the existing connections between the southern and northern part of the Amazonian Basin in terms of regional circulation/rainfall patterns. The identification of these CPs provide useful information to understand local rainfall variability and could hence be used to better understand the influence of these CPs on the hydrological variability in the Amazonian Basin.     

Active faulting and continental slope instability in the Gulf of Patti (Tyrrhenian side of NE Sicily,Italy): a field,marine and seismological joint analysis

The Gulf of Patti and its onshore sector represent one of the most seismically active regions of the Italian Peninsula. Over the period 1984–2014, about 1800 earthquakes with small-to-moderate magnitude and a maximum hypocentral depth of 40 km occurred in this area. Historical catalogues reveal that the same area was affected by several strong earthquakes such as the Mw = 6.1 event in April 1978 and the Mw = 6.2 one in March 1786 which have caused severe damages in the surrounding localities. The main seismotectonic feature affecting this area is represented by a NNW–SSE trending right-lateral strike-slip fault system called “Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni” (ATLFS) which has been interpreted as a lithospheric transfer zone extending from the Aeolian Islands to the Ionian coast of Sicily. Although the large-scale role of the ATLFS is widely accepted, several issues about its structural architecture (i.e. distribution, attitude and slip of fault segments) and the active deformation pattern are poorly constrained, particularly in the offshore. An integrated analysis of field structural geology with marine geophysical and seismological data has allowed to better understand the structural fabric of the ATLFS which, in the study area, is expressed by two major NW–SE trending, en-echelon arranged fault segments. Minor NNE–SSW oriented extensional structures mainly occur in the overlap region between major faults, forming a dilatational stepover. Most faults display evidence of active deformation and appear to control the main morphobathymetric features. This aspect, together with diffused continental slope instability, must be considered for the revaluation of the seismic and geomorphological hazard of this sector of southern Tyrrhenian Sea.     

Hydrological implications of land use and land cover change: Spatial analytical approach at regional scale in the closed basin of the Cuitzeo Lake,Michoacan, Mexico

A spatially distributed water balance model was used to assess the influence of regional land use and land cover change in a poorly gauged basin for the years 1975 and 2000. To carry out this study in the Cuitzeo Lake basin in Michoacan, Mexico, remote sensing and geographic information system tools were integrated in the water balance model. In addition, a transition matrix analysis was used to determine the dynamic change of categories of related hydrologic processes. The analysis of the water balance components, based on landforms and transition matrix, indicated a tendency of improvement in the regional hydrologic conditions in the basin. As a consequence of urban land use growth, however, plains and footslopes of the basin showed an increase of runoff values. In addition, in both years, the topographic lower sections of the basin exhibited a high demand for water from the increased urban land use, along with degradation of Cuitzeo Lake, particularly by pollution and reduction of water supply. The approach used here is suitable for understanding the change in quantity and spatial distribution of water available in poorly gauged basins.     

Active faulting and continental slope instability in the Gulf of Patti (Tyrrhenian side of NE Sicily,Italy): a field,marine and seismological joint analysis

The Gulf of Patti and its onshore sector represent one of the most seismically active regions of the Italian Peninsula. Over the period 1984–2014, about 1800 earthquakes with small-to-moderate magnitude and a maximum hypocentral depth of 40 km occurred in this area. Historical catalogues reveal that the same area was affected by several strong earthquakes such as the Mw = 6.1 event in April 1978 and the Mw = 6.2 one in March 1786 which have caused severe damages in the surrounding localities. The main seismotectonic feature affecting this area is represented by a NNW–SSE trending right-lateral strike-slip fault system called “Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni” (ATLFS) which has been interpreted as a lithospheric transfer zone extending from the Aeolian Islands to the Ionian coast of Sicily. Although the large-scale role of the ATLFS is widely accepted, several issues about its structural architecture (i.e. distribution, attitude and slip of fault segments) and the active deformation pattern are poorly constrained, particularly in the offshore. An integrated analysis of field structural geology with marine geophysical and seismological data has allowed to better understand the structural fabric of the ATLFS which, in the study area, is expressed by two major NW–SE trending, en-echelon arranged fault segments. Minor NNE–SSW oriented extensional structures mainly occur in the overlap region between major faults, forming a dilatational stepover. Most faults display evidence of active deformation and appear to control the main morphobathymetric features. This aspect, together with diffused continental slope instability, must be considered for the revaluation of the seismic and geomorphological hazard of this sector of southern Tyrrhenian Sea.

     

Water-soluble inorganic ions of size-differentiated atmospheric particles from a suburban site of Mexico City

During the MILAGRO campaign, March 2006, eight-stage cut impactors were used to sample atmospheric particles at Tecámac (T1 supersite), towards the northeast edge of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, collecting fresh local emissions and aged pollutants produced in Mexico City. Particle samples were analyzed to determine total mass concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, and NO₃ ^?. Average concentrations were 22.1 ± 7.2 μg m^?3 for PM₁₀ and 18.3 ± 6.2 μg m^?3 for PM_1.8. A good correlation between PM₁₀ and PM_1.8, without influence from wind patterns, indicates that local emissions are more important than the city’s pollution transported to the site, despite the fact that Tecámac is just 40 km away from Mexico City. A lack of diurnal patterns in the PM_2.5/PM_1.8 ratio supports this conclusion. The inorganic composition of particles suggests that vehicles, soil resuspension, and industries are the main pollutant sources. Finally, the particles were found to be neutralized, in agreement with observations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.     

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.