Computer Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation

The method of making quantitative assessments of mineral resources sufficiently detailed for economic analysis is outlined in three steps. The steps are (1) determination of types of deposits that may be present in an area, (2) estimation of the numbers of deposits of the permissible deposit types, and (3) combination by Monte Carlo simulation of the estimated numbers of deposits with the historical grades and tonnages of these deposits to produce a probability distribution of the quantities of contained metal.Two examples of the estimation of the number of deposits (step 2) are given. The first example is for mercury deposits in southwestern Alaska and the second is for lode tin deposits in the Seward Peninsula.The flow of the Monte Carlo simulation program is presented with particular attention to the dependencies between grades and tonnages of deposits and between grades of different metals in the same deposit.     

Impact of climate and CO2 on a millennium-long tree-ring carbon isotope record

We present one millennium-long (1171-year), and three 100 year long annually resolved δ¹³C tree-ring chronologies from ecologically varying Juniperus stands in the Karakorum Mountains (northern Pakistan), and evaluate their response to climatic and atmospheric CO₂ changes. All δ¹³C records show a gradual decrease since the beginning of the 19th century, which is commonly associated with a depletion of atmospheric δ¹³C due to fossil fuel burning. Climate calibration of high-frequency δ¹³C variations indicates a pronounced summer temperature signal for all sites. The low-frequency component of the same records, however, deviates from long-term temperature trends, even after correction for changes in anthropogenic CO₂. We hypothesize that these high-elevation trees show a response to both climate and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the latter might explain the offset with target temperature data. We applied several corrections to tree-ring δ¹³C records, considering a range of potential CO₂ discrimination changes over the past 150 years and calculated the goodness of fit with the target via calibration/verification tests (R², residual trend, and Durbin-Watson statistics). These tests revealed that at our sites, carbon isotope fixation on longer timescales is affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a discrimination rate of about 0.012‰/ppmv. Although this statistically derived value may be site related, our findings have implications for the interpretation of any long-term trends in climate reconstructions using tree-ring δ¹³C, as we demonstrate with our millennium-long δ¹³C Karakorum record. While we find indications for warmth during the Medieval Warm Period (higher than today’s mean summer temperature), we also show that the low-frequency temperature pattern critically depends on the correction applied. Patterns of long-term climate variation, including the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and 20th century warmth are most similar to existing evidence when a strong influence of increased atmospheric CO₂ on plant physiology is assumed.     

Detrital zircon geochronology of Palaeozoic Novaya Zemlya – a key to understanding the basement of the Barents Shelf

The Novaya Zemlya fold‐and‐thrust‐belt is the northern continuation of the late Palaeozoic Uralide Orogen. Little is known about its deeper structure and the basement history of the adjacent Barents and Kara shelves. Based on geological evidence and detrital zircon analysis of 28 samples from the northeastern and stratigraphically deepest part of the archipelago, we demonstrate that Cambro‐Ordovician turbidite‐dominated deposition was almost exclusively sourced from rocks consolidated during the Timanian orogeny (Timanian basement). A profound change in provenance occurred near the end of the Ordovician. Over 90% of the zircons from Silurian and about 80% from Devonian strata have ages characteristic of the Sveconorwegian Orogen, implying uplift of these rocks in the vicinity of Novaya Zemlya. The presence of Sveconorwegian and Grenvillian rocks in the high Arctic suggests revision of recent reconstructions of the Rodinia supercontinent, its break‐up and subsequent Caledonian orogeny.     

DDT,PCB and benzo(a)pyrene levels in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus) from southern California

In 1978 the California Department of Fish and Game carried out a major, independent sportfishing survey in southern California. The results of that survey indicated that approximately one million angler-trip hours per year were spent fishing and that one in three fish caught was a white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus). There was no attempt by the Department of Fish and Game to determine the disposition of caught fish. We conducted a subsequent survey in 1980 which included 12 popular sportfishing sites in the Los Angeles area. Our results also indicated that one in three fish caught was a white croaker. In addition our survey showed that 82% of the sportfishermen ate the white croaker they caught and the median consumption was 14.8 g day^?1 person^?1. White croaker were then sampled by hook-and-line from 11 of the 12 survey sites plus two control sites and analysed for PCB, DDT and BaP. Median PCB levels ranged from 0.014 to 0.41 mg wet kg^?1; median DDT from 0.059 to 7.5 mg wet kg^?1 and BaP was below detectable limits of 1 ng for all sites.     

Creep parameters of rocks on an engineering scale

Vertical shafts of 137 cm diameter were excavated to measure creep deformations of carbonate shale, weathered limestone and tuff. Changes of diameter at successive time intervals were recorded under constant, radial pressure. Three typical models were chosen for a regression analysis of the experimental data and their fitness were compared to one another in a statistical approach.The introduction of a steady state flow term improves the data fit considerably, and the power law was found to yield an even better result. It was also determined that rock masses in the field contain numerous discontinuities which increase the plasticity of the three types of rock tested. The viscosities determined in-situ were found to be much lower than those derived from small intact specimens by up to several orders of magnitude.     

Mesofossil flora from the Late Cretaceous of New Zealand

This study presents the first report of mesofossils of flowers, fruits and seeds found in the Cretaceous of New Zealand. The specimens were recovered from the Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian, ca. 70 Ma) at Kai Point Mine, South Island in a sequence of floodplain sediments sampled just below the Barclay Coal Seam. Angiosperm flowers, fruits and seeds occur in the sample. The most common form is an actinomorphic flower with two whorls of three tepals. Anther bases are preserved and the ovary develops into a drupe, all features that are consistent with placement in the Lauraceae. Reproductive structures including seeds of conifers are also described, with some allied to the Podocarpaceae. This contrasts with interpretations of the flora based on macrofossils that indicate abundant Araucariaceae and highlights the different perspectives that mesofossil floras give to any assemblage. The results of the present study support a Late Cretaceous flora at this site mainly dominated by conifers with affinities to Podocarpaceae but also including lauraceous angiosperms.     

Activated release of alkalis during the vesiculation of molten basalts under high vacuum: implications for lunar volcanism

Knudsen cell-quadrupole mass spectrometry was used to study the high-temperature vaporization of Hawaiian basalts, plagioclase, tektites, and samples from the Allende meteorite. Procedures are described by which mass loss rates and vapor pressures of Na and K were measured quantitatively.Gas-rich glassy basalts were observed to vesiculate under vacuum over the 900–1000°C region and simultaneously evaporate alkalis in nonequilibrium fashion at rates (units of μg/g/hr) of approximately 200–300 Na and 75–250 K. Degassed residues of the same basalts demonstrated equilibrium evaporation rates (over the same temperature range) of 60–120 Na and 30–60 K. The gas-deficient plagioclase and tektite sample showed only equilibrium vaporization with rates of 60 Na, 10 K (plagioclase) and 10 Na, 5K (tektites) at 900–1000°C. The Allende meteorite vaporized at rates of 2400 Na and 200 K at 900–1000°C, possibly by the reaction of Na₂O and K₂O with C or S₂, or by the thermal decomposition of nepheline or sodalite.The nonequilibrium vaporization of alkalis from the gas-rich basalts is attributed to vigorous agitation of the melt during its vesiculation by a gas phase composed principally of SO₂, CO₂, H₂O, CO, and H₂S. The major gases released from the Allende meteorite at 900–1000°C are, in order of decreasing abundance, CO, S₂, CO₂, H₂O, SO₂, and H₂S.It is proposed that nonequilibrium vaporization of alkalis during the vesiculation of lunar lavas was responsible for the production of alkali-rich vapors which subsequently deposited plagioclase crystals in the vugs of lunar rocks. The vesiculative, nonequilibrium vaporization of Na and K during a lunar volcanic eruption should be expected to occur at a high rate upon initial extrusion of the lava into vacuum but then decrease by a factor of approximately three when degassing is nearing completion. Vaporization losses remain inadequate to explain the uniformly low alkali concentrations in lunar basalts.     

Physical parameters of near-Earth asteroid 1982 DV

Visual and infrared observations were made of Amor asteroid 1982 DV during its discovery apparition. Broadband visual and near-infrared photometry shows that it is an S-class asteroid. Narrowband spectrophotometry shows an absorption feature due to olivine or pyroxene or both centered at 0.93 μm. Applying a nonrotating thermal model to 10-μm photometry, the geometric albedo is calculated to be approximately 0.27. The geometric albedo for a slowly rotating, rocky surface was calculated for 1 night to be 0.15, consistent with S-class asteroid albedos. Thus, 1982 DV is either one of the most reflective S-class asteroids known, or a significant amount of bare rock is exposed on the asteroid's surface. For the nonrotating model, ellipsoidal dimensions for 1982 DV are 3.5 × 1.4 × 1.4 km.     

The mid-depth circulation of the northwestern tropical Atlantic observed by floats

A comprehensive analysis of velocity data from subsurface floats in the northwestern tropical Atlantic at two depth layers is presented: one representing the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, pressure range 600–1050 dbar), the other the upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW, pressure range 1200–2050 dbar). New data from three independent research programs are combined with previously available data to achieve blanket coverage in space for the AAIW layer, while coverage in the uNADW remains more intermittent. Results from the AAIW mainly confirm previous studies on the mean flow, namely the equatorial zonal and the boundary currents, but clarify details on pathways, mostly by virtue of the spatial data coverage that sets float observations apart from e.g. shipborne or mooring observations. Mean transports in each of five zonal equatorial current bands is found to be between 2.7 and 4.5 Sv. Pathways carrying AAIW northward beyond the North Brazil Undercurrent are clearly visible in the mean velocity field, in particular a northward transport of 3.7 Sv across 16°N between the Antilles islands and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. New maps of Lagrangian eddy kinetic energy and integral time scales are presented to quantify mesoscale activity. For the uNADW, mean flow and mesoscale properties are discussed as data availability allows. Trajectories in the uNADW east of the Lesser Antilles reveal interactions between the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) and the basin interior, which can explain recent hydrographic observations of changes in composition of DWBC water along its southward flow.