National-scale data-driven rainfall induced landslide susceptibility mapping for China by accounting for incomplete landslide data

China is one of the countries where landslides caused the most fatalities in the last decades.The threat that landslide disasters pose to people might even be greater in the future,due to climate change and the increasing urbanization of mountainous areas.A reliable national-scale rainfall induced landslide suscep-tibility model is therefore of great relevance in order to identify regions more and less prone to landslid-ing as well as to develop suitable risk mitigating strategies.However,relying on imperfect landslide data is inevitable when modelling landslide susceptibility for such a large research area.The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of incomplete landslide data on national scale statistical landslide susceptibility modeling for China.In this context,it is aimed to explore the benefit of mixed effects mod-elling to counterbalance associated bias propagations.Six influencing factors including lithology,slope,soil moisture index,mean annual precipitation,land use and geological environment regions were selected based on an initial exploratory data analysis.Three sets of influencing variables were designed to represent different solutions to deal with spatially incomplete landslide information:Set 1(disregards the presence of incomplete landslide information),Set 2(excludes factors related to the incompleteness of landslide data),Set 3(accounts for factors related to the incompleteness via random effects).The vari-able sets were then introduced in a generalized additive model(GAM:Set 1 and Set 2)and a generalized additive mixed effect model(GAMM:Set 3)to establish three national-scale statistical landslide suscep-tibility models:models 1,2 and 3.The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve(AUROC)given by spatially explicit and non-spatial cross-validation.The spatial pre-diction pattern produced by the models were also investigated.The results show that the landslide inven-tory incompleteness had a substantial impact on the outcomes of the statistical landslide susceptibility models.The cross-validation results provided evidence that the three established models performed well to predict model-independent landslide information with median AUROCs ranging from 0.8 to 0.9.However,although Model 1 reached the highest AUROCs within non-spatial cross-validation(median of 0.9),it was not associated with the most plausible representation of landslide susceptibility.The Model 1 modelling results were inconsistent with geomorphological process knowledge and reflected a large extent the underlying data bias.The Model 2 susceptibility maps provided a less biased picture of landslide susceptibility.However,a lower predicted likelihood of landslide occurrence still existed in areas known to be underrepresented in terms of landslide data(e.g.,the Kuenlun Mountains in the northern Tibetan Plateau).The non-linear mixed-effects model(Model 3)reduced the impact of these biases best by introducing bias-describing variables as random effects.Among the three models,Model 3 was selected as the best national-scale susceptibility model for China as it produced the most plausible portray of rainfall induced landslide susceptibility and the highest spatially explicit predictive perfor-mance(median AUROC of spatial cross validation 0.84)compared to the other two models(median AUROCs of 0.81 and 0.79,respectively).We conclude that ignoring landslide inventory-based incomplete-ness can entail misleading modelling results and that the application of non-linear mixed-effect models can reduce the propagation of such biases into the final results for very large areas.     

用陆地卫星TM6数据演算地表温度的单窗算法

陆地卫星 TM数据 (TM6)热波段表示地表热辐射和地表温度变化。长期以来 ,从 TM6数据中演算地表温度通常是通过所谓大气校正法。这一方法需要估计大气热辐射和大气对地表热辐射传导的影响 ,计算过程很复杂 ,误差也较大 ,在实际中应用不多。根据地表热辐射传导方程 ,推导出一个简单易行并且精度较高的演算方法 ,把大气和地表的影响直接包括在演算公式中。该算法需要用地表辐射率、大气透射率和大气平均温度 3个参数进行地表温度的演算。验证表明 ,该方法的地表温度演算较高。当参数估计没有误差时 ,该方法的地表温度演算精度达到 <0 .4℃ ,在参数估计有适度误差时 ,演算精度仍达 <1 .1℃。因该方法适用于仅有一个热波段的遥感数据 ,故称为单窗算法。     

Land use and land cover dynamics in Leiria City: relation between peri-urbanization processes and hydro-geomorphologic disasters

Natural Hazards - The objective of the present study is to evaluate the relation between the spatial and temporal dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the hydro-geomorphological processes...     

Tidal variation in a rocky inter‐tidal fish population: the case of white seabream Diplodus sargus juveniles

The rocky inter‐tidal habitat is a harsh and fluctuating environment, subject to frequent disturbances. Field observations of juvenile white seabream Diplodus sargus in inter‐tidal rocky habitats were conducted to analyse the spatial distribution and feeding activity of this species in relation to the tidal cycle. The depth at which fish were observed did not change in most tidal phases while feeding activity changed with tidal level, showing the occurrence of tidal migrations and that feeding may be limited by habitat availability in shallow waters and thus be dependent on tidal changes. The present results show the exploitation of available feeding areas in the rocky inter‐tidal by juvenile white seabream, which corroborates the importance of these habitats for the first developmental stages of this fish species.     

Development of a fluorescence quenching assay to measure the fraction of organic carbon present in self-assembled gels in seawater

The dissolved organic carbon pool (DOC) is among the largest reservoir of reduced carbon on our planet. The demonstration that DOC polymers remain in assembly/dispersion equilibrium forming microscopic hydrogels has a broad range of critical implications. Previous studies estimate that  10% of DOC could be assembled as gels, yielding values of  7 × 10¹⁶ g of organic carbon present as microscopic hotspots of high substrate concentration. This huge mass of reduced carbon emphasizes the need to develop reliable methods to systematically investigate the budget of self-assembled marine gels (SAG), and their role in biogeochemical cycling. However, a quantitative method to measure SAG in seawater has not been available. Here we present the validation of a simple assay to measure the mass of organic carbon assembled as microgels in native seawater. This method is based on the ratio of Chlortetracycline (CTC) fluorescence quenching between Ca bound to non-assembled organic molecules and molecules assembled as microgels. This assay can be readily implemented on board using a low cost fluorometer and provisions to measure TOC.     

A fast Bayesian approach to discrete object detection in astronomical data sets – PowellSnakes I

A new fast Bayesian approach is introduced for the detection of discrete objects immersed in a diffuse background. This new method, called PowellSnakes, speeds up traditional Bayesian techniques by (i) replacing the standard form of the likelihood for the parameters characterizing the discrete objects by an alternative exact form that is much quicker to evaluate; (ii) using a simultaneous multiple minimization code based on Powell's direction set algorithm to locate rapidly the local maxima in the posterior and (iii) deciding whether each located posterior peak corresponds to a real object by performing a Bayesian model selection using an approximate evidence value based on a local Gaussian approximation to the peak. The construction of this Gaussian approximation also provides the covariance matrix of the uncertainties in the derived parameter values for the object in question. This new approach provides a speed up in performance by a factor of '100' as compared to existing Bayesian source extraction methods that use Monte Carlo Markov chain to explore the parameter space, such as that presented by Hobson & McLachlan. The method can be implemented in either real or Fourier space. In the case of objects embedded in a homogeneous random field, working in Fourier space provides a further speed up that takes advantage of the fact that the correlation matrix of the background is circulant. We illustrate the capabilities of the method by applying to some simplified toy models. Furthermore, PowellSnakes has the advantage of consistently defining the threshold for acceptance/rejection based on priors which cannot be said of the frequentist methods. We present here the first implementation of this technique (version I). Further improvements to this implementation are currently under investigation and will be published shortly. The application of the method to realistic simulated Planck observations will be presented in a forthcoming publication.     

The role of massive AGB stars in the early solar system composition

Abstract— We demonstrate that a massive asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star is a good candidate as the main source of short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system. Recent identification of massive (4–8 M⊙) AGB stars in the galaxy, which are both lithium‐ and rubidium‐rich, demonstrates that these stars experience proton captures at the base of the convective envelope (hot bottom burning), together with high‐neutron density nucleosynthesis with ²²Ne as a neutron source in the He shell and efficient dredge‐up of the processed material. A model of a 6.5 M⊙ star of solar metallicity can simultaneously match the abundances of ²⁶Al, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Fe, and ¹⁰⁷Pd inferred to have been present in the solar nebula by using a dilution factor of 1 part of AGB material per 300 parts of original solar nebula material, and taking into account a time interval between injection of the short‐lived nuclides and consolidation of the first meteorites equal to 0.53 Myr. Such a polluting source does not overproduce ⁵³Mn, as supernova models do, and only marginally affects isotopic ratios of stable elements. It is usually argued that it is unlikely that the short‐lived radionuclides in the early solar system came from an AGB star because these stars are rarely found in star forming regions, however, we think that further interdisciplinary studies are needed to address the fundamental problem of the birth of our solar system.     

Tsunamis on Mars: Earth analogues of projected Martian sediment

Bolide impacts on Mars, within the proposed ocean boundaries (“contacts 1 and 2”) in the northern lowlands, would certainly have generated ultra high energy waves similar to tsunamis on Earth. Impacts into putative Noachian and Hesperian seas of variable areal extents and depths would have experienced high-energy inundations (transgressions), which would have left an imprint in the stack of deposits adjacent to the proposed shorelines. On Earth, the principal influencing factors for tsunami-wave energy are the character of shoreline topography and coastal water depth, which control wave compression and shoreline friction. Shorelines with narrow embayments and steep offshore gradients produce wave compression and increased collision of grains within the carried load contrasted with linear shorelines and shallow offshore gradients that dissipate energy. Steep offshore gradients produce concentrated major wave friction with the bed engendering high kinetic energy in the wave during emplacement of tsunami-generated sediment, which differs from shallow offshore beds that produce lower frictional effects over a wider area and drawdown of wave energy. Thus, overprinting of transported quartz grains on Earth is greatest where wave energy is highest, attenuated down to minor or nil overprinting where wave energy is less. Such grain overprinting in the form of energy-induced microtextures would also be observed in other grain types such as olivine and plagioclase, as such mineralogies are expected to dominate the Martian landscape based on orbital and local field (lander and rover) perspectives. Kinetic energy variation in tsunamis is controlled more by the square of velocity than mass, the resulting collisional effects of which produce swarms of v-shaped percussion microfeatures on quartz and other silicate mineral surfaces when velocity and compression are highest. This work indicates that a valid test for the ocean hypothesis is targeting “coastal” areas adjacent to narrow embayments where offshore depths are known to be highest, as possible tsunami-emplaced sediments, especially those that have been protected from atmospheric conditions through relatively rapid burial, may reveal a high frequency of percussion cracks, features of which appear to be unique to such terrestrial environments.     

Daily scale modelling of aquifer–river connectivity in the urban alluvial aquifer in Langreo, Spain

Evaluating aquifer–river interactions is naturally complex, particularly within urban settings. This is largely due to the difficulties involved in quantifying most elements of the water balance. The ability of numerical models to deal with several dynamic variables simultaneously makes them valuable tools to address this kind of problem. An applied, modeling-based approach to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of aquifer–river connectivity within a shallow urban aquifer is presented. Model development is based on comprehensive field campaigns in Langreo, Spain. Two calibration runs (for summer and winter conditions) were carried out in order to evaluate the spatial distribution of recharge rates. The model suggests that baseflows are largely negligible in comparison with total streamflows. This is mostly attributed to the abrupt nature of the catchment, which prevents the existence of sufficiently large alluvial systems to a great extent. Modelling results also show that aquifer–river connectivity at the study site is constrained by urban pumping as well as by seasonal fluctuations.     

The Sierra Ballena Shear Zone in the southernmost Dom Feliciano Belt (Uruguay): evolution, kinematics, and deformation conditions

The Sierra Ballena Shear Zone (SBSZ) is part of a high-strain transcurrent system that divides the Neoproterozoic Dom Feliciano Belt of South America into two different domains. The basement on both sides of the SBSZ shows a deformation stage preceding that of the transcurrent deformation recognized as a high temperature mylonitic foliation associated with migmatization. Grain boundary migration and fluid-assisted grain boundary diffusion enhanced by partial melting were the main deformation mechanisms associated with this foliation. Age estimate of this episode is >658 Ma. The second stage corresponds to the start of transpressional deformation and the nucleation and development of the SBSZ. During this stage, pure shear dominates the deformation, and is characterized by the development of conjugate dextral and sinistral shear zones and the emplacement of syntectonic granites. This event dates to 658–600 Ma based on the age of these intrusions. The third stage was a second transpressional event at about 586 to <560 Ma that was associated with the emplacement of porphyry dikes and granites that show evidence of flattening. Deformation in the SBSZ took place, during the late stages, under regional low-grade conditions, as indicated by the metamorphic paragenesis in the supracrustals of the country rocks. Granitic mylonites show plastic deformation of quartz and brittle behavior of feldspar. A transition from magmatic to solid-state microstructures is also frequently observed in syntectonic granites. Mylonitic porphyries and quartz mylonites resulted from the deformation of alkaline porphyries and quartz veins emplaced in the shear zone. Quartz veins reflect the release of silica associated with the breakdown of feldspar to white mica during the evolution of the granitic mylonites to phyllonites, which resulted in shear zone weakening. Quartz microstructures characteristic of the transition between regime 2 and regime 3, grain boundary migration and incipient recrystallization in feldspar indicate deformation under lower amphibolite to upper greenschist conditions (550–400°C). On the other hand, the mylonitic porphyries display evidence of feldspar recrystallization suggesting magmatic or high-T solid-state deformation during cooling of the dikes.