Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Viticulture in California: Cool airconditioned valleys as the equivalent of warm sheltered “côtes”

This essay focuses on the distinctive geographic setting of viticulture in California. It assesses the significance of the prevailing environmental conditions for wine growing in California and offers an explanation of the spatial pattern of Californian wine climate regions. Wine varieties in California, as almost everywhere in the world, are of European origin (Vitis vinifera). The ultimate result of a bio-geographic diffusion process of Vitis vinifera was the development of superior wine varieties in a climate that is marginal for wine growing in Western Europe (Cf-Köppen). Nestled in a cooler and more precarious macro-climatological environment, the relatively warm micro climates of the slopes (cotes) allow wine growing. The noble varieties peculiar to the slopes have been successfully transplanted in California's coastal valleys, this not-withstanding the California environment, which is diametrically opposed to that in Western Europe. In a hot macro environment (Cs-Köppen), high-quality wine growing is only possible due to the cool airconditioned micro climate in the valleys.     

Experiments on numerical modeling of intense convection

Results of numerical simulations using the WRF-ARW nonhydrostatic model are presented for eight episodes of intense convection over European Russia in the summer of 2007. The calculations were performed on four nested grids with horizontal grid meshes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km. Convection was parametrized on the first two grids and explicitly resolved on the other two. It has been found that simulations on finer grids with explicit calculation of convective flows make it possible to reproduce heavy rainfalls and strong-wind zones in the areas of intense convection. A preliminary verification of the short-range predictions of convective systems shows that the maximum 12-h precipitation totals and the maximum winds at 10 m are close, in the order of magnitude, to the observed values. Prediction of convection centers is the weakest point. Difficulties in the model verification associated with the absence of data with high space-time resolution are discussed.     

Accretion tectonics and crustal structure in Alaska

The entire width of the North American Cordillera in Alaska is made up of “suspect terranes”. Pre-Late Cretaceous paleogeography is poorly constrained and the ultimate origins of the many fragments which make up the state are unclear. The Prince William and Chugach terranes accreted since Late Cretaceous time and represent the collapse of much of the northeast Pacific Ocean swept into what today is southern Alaska. Greater Wrangellia, a composite terrane now dispersed into fragments scattered from Idaho to southern Alaska, apparently accreted into Alaska in Late Cretaceous time crushing an enormous deep-marine flysch basin on its inboard side. Most of interior eastern Alaska is the Yukon Tanana terrane, a very large entirely fault-bounded metamorphic-plutonic assemblage covering thousands of square kilometers in Canada as well as Alaska. The original stratigraphy and relationship to North America of the Yukon-Tanana terrane are both obscure. A collapsed Mesozoic flysch basin, similar to the one inboard of Wrangellia, lies along the northern margin. Much of Arctic Alaska was apparently a vast expanse of upper Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic deep marine sediments and mafic volcanic and plutonic rocks now scattered widely as large telescoped sheets and Klippen thrust over the Ruby geanticline and the Brooks Range, and probably underlying the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and the Yukon flats. The Brooks Range itself is a stack of north vergent nappes, the telescoping of which began in Early Cretaceous time. Despite compelling evidence for thousands of kilometers of relative displacement between the accreted terranes, and large amounts of telescoping, translation, and rotation since accretion, the resulting new continental crust added to North America in Alaska carries few obvious signatures that allow application of currently popular simple plate tectonic models. Intraplate telescoping and strike-slip translations, delamination at mid-crustal levels, and large-scale lithospheric wedging were important processes in northern Cordilleran tectonic evolution.     

Dynamical attitude model for Gaia

The Dynamical Attitude Model (DAM) is a simulation package developed to achieve a detailed understanding of the Gaia spacecraft attitude. It takes into account external physical effects and considers internal hardware components controlling the satellite. The main goal of the Gaia mission is to obtain extremely accurate astrometry, and this necessitates a good knowledge of Gaia’s behaviour as a spinning rigid body under the influence of various perturbations. This paper describes these perturbations and how they are modelled in DAM.     

Linear mechanism of generation and intencification of internal gravity waves in the ionosphere at their interaction with a nonuniform zonal wind: 1. Model of the medium and initial dynamic equations

The specific features of the generation and intensification of internal gravity wave structures in different atmospheric-ionospheric regions, caused by zonal local nonuniform winds (shear flows), are studied. The model of the medium has been explained and an initial closed system of equations has been obtained in order to study the linear and nonlinear dynamics of internal gravity waves (IGWs) when they interact with the geomagnetic field in a dissipative ionosphere (for the D, E, and F regions).     

A New Protocol for the Astrometric Follow-up of Near Earth Asteroids

A new protocol was devised to improve the efficiency of astrometric follow-up observations of Near Earth Asteroids for the accurate determination of their orbits. It was implemented in the activities of the Spaceguard Central Node (SCN, a facility of the Spaceguard Foundation, established with the support of the European Space Agency) in the form of a Priority List. Here we describe this protocol and results obtained during five years of activity (2000–2004).