The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

A CO2-rich gas trigger of explosive paroxysms at Stromboli basaltic volcano,Italy

In addition to rhythmic slug-driven Strombolian activity, Stromboli volcano occasionally produces discrete explosive paroxysms (2 per year on average for the most frequent ones) that constitute a major hazard and whose origin remains poorly elucidated. Partial extrusion of the volatile-rich feeding basalt as aphyric pumice during these events has led to consider their triggering by the fast ascent of primitive magma blobs from possibly great depth. Here I examine and discuss the alternative hypothesis that most of the paroxysms could be triggered and driven by the fast upraise of CO₂-rich gas pockets generated by bubble foam growth and collapse in the sub-volcano plumbing system. Data for the SO₂ and CO₂ crater plume emissions are used to show that Stromboli's feeding magma may originally contain as much as 2 wt.% of carbon dioxide and early coexists with an abundant CO₂-rich gas phase with high CO₂/SO₂ molar ratio (≥ 60 at 10 km depth below the vents, compared to ～ 7 in time-averaged crater emissions). Pressure-related modelling indicates that the time-averaged crater gas composition and output are well accounted for by closed system decompression of the basalt–gas mixture until the volcano–crust interface (～ 3 km depth), followed by open degassing and crystallization in the volcano conduits. However, both the low viscosity and high vesicularity of the basaltic magma permit bubble segregation and bubble foam growth at deep sill-like feeder discontinuities and at shallower physical boundaries (such as the volcano–crust interface) where the gas-rich aphyric basalt interacts with the unerupted crystal-rich and viscous magma drained back from the volcano conduits. Gas pressure build-up and bubble foam collapse at these boundaries will intermittently trigger the sudden upraise of CO₂-rich gas blobs that constitute the main driving force of the paroxysms. Deeper-sourced gas blobs, driving the most powerful explosions, will be the richest in CO₂ and have highest CO₂/SO₂ ratios. This mechanism is shown to account well for the dynamic, seismic and petrologic features of Stromboli's paroxysms and, hence, to provide a potential alternative interpretation for their genesis and their forecasting. Enhanced bubble foam leakage prior to a paroxysm, or foam emptying in several steps, should lead indeed to precursory upstream of CO₂-rich gas and increasing CO₂/SO₂ ratio in crater plume emissions. The recent detection of such signals prior to two explosions in December 2006 and March 2007 strongly supports this expectation and the model proposed in this study.     

Impact of royalties from forest resources on community development in Boki Local Government in Cross River State,Nigeria

The purpose of the study was to examine the extent to which royalties generated from forest resources contributed to community development in Boki Local Government area of Cross River State, Nigeria. The study used questionnaire survey of house-hold heads and Interview with focus groups to obtain data for this study. A total of 224 household heads representing 20 % of the available house-hold heads in the area was used for the study. The data collected were presented using tables and charts while an inferential statistics (Pearson’s Product Moment correlation) was employed to test the hypothesis of the study. The result of the analysis revealed that there exist a positive correlation coefficient of 0.911 which indicates a strong and positive relationship between royalties collected from forest resources and the number of developmental projects in the study area. Based on the findings of this study, it was recommended that more efforts be directed towards the monitoring and regulation of forest resource exploration activities in the area to ensure that royalties collected are directed towards the establishment of more developmental projects in the area so as to impact more positively on the living standard of the people.     

Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

Spurious diapycnal mixing in terrain-following coordinate models: The problem and a solution

In this paper, we identify a crucial numerical problem in sigma coordinate models, leading to unacceptable spurious diapycnal mixing. This error is a by-product of recent advances in numerical methods, namely the implementation of high-order diffusive advection schemes. In the case of ROMS, spurious mixing is produced by its third-order upwind advection scheme, but our analysis suggests that all diffusive advection schemes would behave similarly in all sigma models. We show that the common idea that spurious mixing decreases with resolution is generally false. In a coarse-resolution regime, spurious mixing increases as resolution is refined, and may reach its peak value when eddy-driven lateral mixing becomes explicitly resolved. At finer resolution, diffusivities are expected to decrease but with values that only become acceptable at resolutions finer than the kilometer. The solution to this problem requires a specifically designed advection scheme. We propose and validate the RSUP3 scheme, where diffusion is split from advection and is represented by a rotated biharmonic diffusion scheme with flow-dependent hyperdiffusivity satisfying the Peclet constraint. The rotated diffusion operator is designed for numerical stability, which includes improvements of linear stability limits and a clipping method adapted to the sigma-coordinate. Realistic model experiments in a southwest Pacific configuration show that RSUP3 is able to preserve low dispersion and diffusion capabilities of the original third-order upwind scheme, while preserving water mass characteristics. There are residual errors from the rotated diffusion operator, but they remain acceptable. The use of a constant diffusivity rather than the Peclet hyperdiffusivity tends to increase these residual errors which become unacceptable with Laplacian diffusion. Finally, we have left some options open concerning the use of time filters as an alternative to spatial diffusion. A temporal discretization approach to the present problem (including implicit discretization) will be reported in a following paper.     

Diel variation of benthic respiration in a coral reef sediment (Reunion Island,Indian Ocean)

Oxygen and total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes at the water–sediment interface were measured using benthic chambers to assess the short-term variations of community respiration (CR) in the back reef sediments of Reunion Island (Indian Ocean). Benthic CR had a daily cycle of minimal (6:00 AM) and maximal values (6:00 PM), showing increases of oxygen and DIC fluxes of 2.8- and 3.8-fold, respectively. Average CR values were observed at midday and midnight. The evolution of fluxes was positively related to oxygen concentration in ambient water, but not to temperature changes. In the study area, high daytime primary production augments the amount of energy available for community metabolism and increases benthic respiration. The benthic communities are therefore subjected to short-term variable environmental conditions with oxygen supersaturation during the day, and moderately hypoxic conditions at the end of the night.     

Compositional characteristics of olivines from Apollo 12 samples

The olivine phenocrysts of four basalts (12004, 12008, 12009 and 12022) are concentrically zoned and have core compositions about as magnesian as experimentally produced liquidas olivines, features which suggest fractional crystallization and absence of Fe-Mg reequilibration. In the magnesium- and olivine-rich granular basalt 12035, the olivines are either unzoned or are zoned toward adjacent grains and have compositions more iron-rich than either cumulus olivines or liquidus olivines (should the rock represent the composition of a melt), features which suggest extensive Fe-Mg re-equilibration.