Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.     

The crucial role of ocean�Catmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean?Catmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean??in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability.     

A typology of migration in Canada based on migrants' characteristics

"Data from the 1981 Census of Canada are used to develop a typology of migrants on the basis of their personal characteristics. Migrants are defined as those individuals who have changed their residence since the 1976 Census, crossing at least a municipal boundary. Socio-economic and demographic characteristics are perceived to differentiate stayers from movers, and to distinguish each migrant type [that is to say] intraprovincial, interprovincial and international. Discriminant analysis is applied to classify people into migrant types based on their personal characteristics and the typology developed."     

Sensitivity of the tropical nonlinear stationary Kelvin and Rossby waves to the vertical structure of heating

Idealized experiments using linear (LM) and nonlinear (NM) multilevel global spectral models have been carried out to investigate and understand the impact of nonlinearities on the stationary wave response in the tropical atmosphere and its sensitivity to the vertical profile of heating. It is found that nonlinearities exert a dominant influence on the low-latitude stationary Kelvin and Rossby waves particularly in the vicinity of the forcing region. Our study shows that nonlinear effects on the upper tropospheric response produce prominent eastward displacement of the anticyclonic vorticity and horizontal shifts of the maximum equilibrium divergence relative to the prescribed heating. These changes due to nonlinear terms are found to be quite sensitive to the vertical structure of diabatic heating. The strongest nonlinear effects are found to occur when the vertical level under consideration is strongly forced from below. Detailed vorticity budget calculations indicate that stronger nonlinear contributions from stretching and horizontal advection of relative vorticity favour the generation of upper tropospheric anticyclonic circulation and its eastward displacement. Larger vertical advection and twisting terms appear to oppose the generation of upper tropospheric anticyclonic vorticity. It is found that the nonlinear terms which affect the vorticity generation in the upper levels are crucially controlled by the vertical profile of heating. The mid-tropospheric response due to deep convective heating in the NM is characterized by anomalous equatorial westerlies in the low-latitude Rossby regime and exhibits prominent ageostrophic motions. Such nonlinear effects appear probably because of a vertical shift of the low level circulation anomalies in the NM. In the case of shallow convective heating the occurrence of anomalous zonal flows and ageostrophic motions in the low latitude regions of the NM takes place near the level of the maximum heating. Our study shows that large heating amplitudes and small vertical gradient of heating at a given vertical level together favour generation of anomalous zonal flows and ageostrophic motions in the near equatorial regions. These anomalous basic flows in the low-latitudes have implications on the propagation of transients from the tropics to midlatitudes. Non-linear effects on the lower tropospheric stationary waves are prominently seen in the case of strong low level heating which produces a large strengthening of the lower tropospheric cyclonic anomalies that exhibit distinct eastward shifts in the NM relative to the LM.     

Shake table testing of liquefaction mitigation efficiency on pile foundations in sand stabilised with colloidal silica

Natural Hazards - Pile foundations in sands are susceptible to damage during earthquake-induced liquefaction. In the last decade, colloidal silica treatment in sand has been considered a novel...     

Organic carbon and iron modulate nitrification rates in mangrove swamps of Goa, south west coast of India

Nitrification, fuelled by ammonium is the pivotal oxidative pathway to nitrogen cycling. In spite of its ecological significance, the factors regulating nitrification rates in the benthic realm remain poorly understood. The present study therefore examines some of the factors like ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, organic carbon, iron and manganese on down-core variability in benthic nitrification rates in two different mangrove ecosystems, one under the influence of ferromanganese ore mining (experiment) and the other relatively undisturbed (control). We hypothesize that besides organic carbon, iron could also influence the rate of nitrification. The study also contrasts the distributive pattern of autotrophic and heterotrophic nitrifiers in the two regions. The concentration of iron at the control site ranged from 1.1% to 15.1% while at the experimental site it ranged from 2.9% to 46%. The levels of organic carbon at control and experimental sites ranged from 0.02% to 6.9% and 0.1% to 6.5%, respectively. The nitrification rates at the control and experimental sites are comparable and ranged from 3.2 ± 1.2 to 18.4 ± 1.9 ng at-N g(sediment)⁻¹ h⁻¹ and 2.7 ± 1.5 to 18.2 ± 0.6 ng at-N g(sediment)⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively. While the abundance of heterotrophic nitrifiers at both the sites ranged from 10^2–3 cells g⁻¹ sediment, the autotrophic nitrifiers at the experimental site was higher by an order at 10³ cells g⁻¹ sediment reflecting the relatively higher refractile nature of organic carbon at the experimental site (Straus and Lamberti, 2000). Though organic carbon and nitrification rates are similar in both the sites, the underlying mechanisms governing the processes could be different. Our studies suggest that at the control site, heterotrophic nitrifiers govern nitrification rates (r = 0.28, p < 0.05, n = 64) using organic carbon (r = 0.32, p < 0.01, n = 64). At the experimental site, nitrification was governed more by autotrophic nitrifiers (r = 0.43, p < 0.001, n = 64) at the expense of iron (r = 0.47, p < 0.001, n = 64). Therefore at the experimental site with higher load of iron, autotrophic nitrification could be more important. It is therefore inferred that both the quality of organic carbon and quantity of iron govern nitrification rates in these mangrove swamps.     

Source depth as a useful parameter in the discrimination of earthquakes and underground explosions

In order to identify whether observed seismic signals are generated by an underground nuclear explosion or an earthquake, it is adequate to rely on one efficient identifier that provides a reasonably good clue in an unambiguous way. Although it is generally accepted that multi-station, multi-parameter discrimination can provide separation between explosions and earthquakes, it has been observed that cases do arise where signal characteristics cannot be established distinctly and satisfactorily. In the so-called “difficult” cases which are associated with some ambiguity in deducing the nature of the source using single-station seismograms, it is shown in this paper that a reliable estimate of source depth proves extremely useful. Out of the eleven typical examples of “not-easy-to-discriminate” events recorded at the Gauribidanur short-period seismic array in Southern India, seven could be successfully identified as earthquakes and the remaining four as probable underground explosions on the basis of focal-depth estimates from multi-station data.     

Deccan Trap volcanism

The Deccan Traps, now occupying an area of 200,000 sq. miles, must originally have been more wide-spread. Their thickness in Western India reaches 6000 ft. They have been encountered at depths of over 1500 ft. in Kathiawar and Sind (Pakistan), and have been faulted down to a depth of over 6000 ft. in the Cambay area. They are composed of numerous flows whose thickness varies from a few ft. to 200 ft. The flows are often compact in the lower portions and vesicular in the upper portions. Over most of the area (east of the Western Ghats) the rock is a tholeiitic basalt (50 to 51.5 % silica) whose pyroxene is intermediate in composition between pigeonite and diopside, and whose CIPW norm generally shows the presence of some quartz. In the Bombay Kathiawar region there are numerous eruptive Centres associated with a large range of differentiated types comprising both very basic and acid types. The study of the analyses of the various types indicates the presence of both the alkali-olivine basalt as well as the Calc-alkali lines of differentiation, which has brought up the question of the nature of the primary magma. It is noted that while the greater part of the area shows tholeiitic rock, olivine basalts and connected types appear in the more western areas, perhaps as a result of the local tectonic conditions. Recent geophysical data point to the presence of an « oceanic basalt » layer all around the earth both in oceanic and continental crust, while a less dense (presumably tholeiitic) layer overlies it (below the sial) in the continental segments. The « oceanic basalt » should therefore be taken as representing the primary magma, and tholeiite as a major type derived from it in the continental crust.     

Analysis of the Tsunami of December 26, 2004, on the Kerala Coast of India—Part III: Inundation and Initial Withdrawal

During the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004, specific observations were made by our survey team about the arrival times of several tsunami waves, their amplitudes, maximum extent of horizontal inundation on land and initial withdrawal of the ocean. Here the observations on the horizontal inundation and initial withdrawal are presented and briefly discussed.