An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.     

Proposal of a method to define areas of landslide hazard and application to an area of the Dolomites, Italy

A numerical–cartographical method has been developed to create landslide hazard maps. This method allows the assigning of a rating to the various parameters which contribute to landslides. The parameters considered are: (1) erodibility and degradability of the rocks and Quaternary deposits; (2) permeability of the ground to identify areas prone to hydraulic overpressure; (3) the geometric ratio between discontinuities and slope, and thickness of Quaternary deposits; (4) angle of the slopes; and (5) land use. A thematic map is constructed for each factor considered which defines different areas through ratings, after which all the thematic maps are overlaid and the ratings added up (or multiplied). The map which is thus obtained is reclassified in order to create the final map of landslide hazard. This method, which has already been tested in various areas, has produced excellent results in this case too, allowing a map to be constructed which corresponds to the actual instability problems.     

Mineralogical and chemical evolution of ochreous precipitates from the Libiola Fe–Cu-sulfide mine (Eastern Liguria,Italy)

The mineralogical and chemical evolution of ochreous precipitates forming from acid mine drainage (AMD) from the abandoned Libiola Fe–Cu-sulfide mine (Eastern Liguria, Italy) was followed through a multianalytical approach (XRD, TEM, XRF, ICP) applied to surface precipitates and associated waters collected from several mine adits. The mineralogy of the precipitates changed significantly as a consequence of the variations of the chemical parameters of the circulating solutions (mainly pH, Eh, and sulfate concentrations) which, in turn, were mainly controlled by mixing with unpolluted stream and rill waters of the mining area. A progressive transition from jarosite-, to schwertmannite-, to goethite-, to ferrihydrite-, to amorphous-dominated precipitates was observed, mainly as a consequence of an increase in the pH of the associated solutions. This mineralogical evolution agrees well with the aqueous speciation and Eh–pH stability calculations performed on the waters associated with the different precipitate types. Furthermore, TEM analysis indicated that metastable pristine phases (schwertmannite) tend to transform progressively to well-crystallized more stable species, here represented by goethite. The comparison of the water chemistry and the crystal chemistry of the different precipitates showed a significant decrease in the Zn, Cu, Ni, Co contents in waters where the coexisting precipitates were almost exclusively composed of goethite. The distribution of V, Sr, As concentrations within the different precipitates showed that the most efficient scavenging phase for these elements was jarosite, whereas ferrihydrite efficiently took up Pb ions, and schwermannite acted as a natural sink for Cr.     

Predicting new snow density in the Italian Alps: A variability analysis based on 10 years of measurements

Despite its strong impact on the time evolution of the snowpack, current estimation of new snow density (ρ_hn) is usually accomplished either by using local empirical techniques or by assuming a constant snow density. Faced with the lack of an estimation model of ρ_hn valid for a wide spatial scale and supported by a suitable number of observations, this study aims to develop simple monthly linear regression models at scale of the entire Italian Alpine chain based on 12,112 snowfall observations at 122 stations, using only air temperature as predictor. Moreover, the remaining variance is investigated in both time and space, also considering some qualitative features of the snowfall events. The daily ρ_hn measurements present a mean value of 115 kg m^?3 (105 and 159 kg m^?3 for dry and wet conditions, respectively). The mean air temperature of the 24 hr preceding the snowfall event has been found to be the best predictor of the ρ_hn, within 31% of uncertainty. The analysis of associated residues allows supporting the idea that the adoption of a more local approach than the one analysed here is not able to substantially increase the predictive capabilities of the model. In fact, the main factor explaining the remaining variance over the air temperature is the wind, but in a complex orography, as mountain regions are, supplying realistic local wind fields is particularly challenging. Therefore, we conclude that using only the daily mean temperature as predictor is a good choice for estimating daily new snow density at scale of Italian Alpine chain, as well as at more regional scale.     

Trophic analysis of two species of Atopsyche (Trichoptera: Hydrobiosidae)

To compare the trophic niche of coexisting larvae of Atopsyche yunguensis and Atopsyche spinosa we analysed their gut contents and found little niche overlap: A. yunguensis fed primarily on Trichoptera and amorphous matter, whereas A. spinosa fed on Diptera. A. spinosa showed both a spatial range and a niche breadth larger than those of A. yunguensis. Behavioural observations on A. spinosa may emphasize the use of chelate anterior legs for securing preys. Both species have been included into the predator-clingers functional group.     

Effects of vegetation on channel morphodynamics: results and insights from laboratory experiments

A series of laboratory experiments demonstrates that riparian vegetation can cause a braided channel to self‐organize to, and maintain, a dynamic, single‐thread channel. The initial condition for the experiments was steady‐state braiding in non‐cohesive sand under uniform discharge. From here, an experiment consisted of repeated cycles alternating a short duration high flow with a long duration low flow, and uniform dispersal of alfalfa seeds over the bed at the end of each high flow. Plants established on freshly deposited bars and areas of braidplain that were unoccupied during low flow. The presence of the plants had the effect of progressively focusing the high flow so that a single dominant channel developed. The single‐thread channel self‐adjusted to carry the high flow. Vegetation also slowed the rate of bank erosion. Matching of deposition along the point bar with erosion along the outer bend enabled the channel to develop sinuosity and migrate laterally while suppressing channel splitting and the creation of new channel width. The experimental channels spontaneously reproduced many of the mechanisms by which natural meandering channels migrate and maintain a single dominant channel, in particular bend growth and channel cutoff. In contrast with the braided system, where channel switching is a nearly continuous process, vegetation maintained a coherent channel until wholesale diversion of flow via cutoff and/or avulsion occurred, by which point the previous channel tended to be highly unfavorable for flow. Thus vegetation discouraged the coexistence of multiple channels. Varying discharge was key to allowing expression of feedbacks between the plants and the flow and promoting the transition from braiding to a single‐thread channel that was then dynamically maintained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi‐performance design method for seismic upgrading of existing RC frames by BRBs

In the world, many existing buildings with RC framed structure were designed according to old seismic standards and present structural deficiencies. Buckling Restrained Braces (BRBs) can be effective for seismic upgrading of these structures, as pointed out by many studies. Nevertheless, Eurocode 8 (EC8) does not provide any rules for design of BRBs. This lack represents a big obstacle for application of this seismic upgrading technique in Europe. For this reason, a method for the design of seismic upgrading interventions by BRBs is proposed in this paper. The method is obtained as the best between two variants developed, investigated and compared in this paper. Based on a numerical investigation, the parameters that control the design method are calibrated to ensure the fulfillment of the Near Collapse performance objective stipulated in EC8. Finally, the capability of the proposed design method in fulfilling also performance objectives not explicitly considered in design is investigated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment characteristics and macrofauna distribution along a human-modified inlet in the Gulf of Oristano (Sardinia, Italy)

We studied the spatial variability and within-year temporal changes in hydrological features, grain size composition and chemical characteristics of sediments, as well as macrofaunal assemblages, along a heavily modified inlet in the Gulf of Oristano (western Sardinia, Italy). The inlet connects the Cabras lagoon to the gulf through a series of convoluted creeks and man-made structures, including a dam and fish barriers built in the last three decades. Sediments were muddy and mainly composed of the "non-sortable" fraction (i.e., <8 microm particle size) in all four areas investigated: Lagoon, Creeks, Channel and Seaward. Along the inlet, however, the ratio between the <8 microm and the 8-64 microm fractions was highest in Creeks and Channel, between the fish barriers and the dam, suggesting impaired hydrodynamics. Consistently, steep gradients in water salinity, temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations were found in proximity to the fish barriers. The whole inlet was characterized by a major organic enrichment of sediments, with up to an annual mean of 33.6% of organic matter and 11.7% of total organic carbon in Seaward due to the presence of seagrass leaf litter. Acid-volatile sulphide and chromium-reduced sulphur concentrations were highest throughout the year in Seaward and Lagoon, respectively, with a peak in summer. Consistently, the whole inlet supported low structured macrofaunal assemblages dominated by few opportunist species, with a relatively lower diversity in Lagoon throughout the year and the highest abundances in Seaward in summer. We infer that the presence of artificial structures along the inlet, such as fish barriers and the dam, impair the lagoon-gulf hydrodynamics, sediment exchange and animal recruitment and colonization. We suggest that the removal of these structures would favour water renewal in the Cabras lagoon, but would also increase the outflow of organic C-bonding fine particles into the gulf with serious consequences for Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows. We conclude that all possible consequences of such initiatives should be carefully considered before any action is taken.