An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.     

Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems

Connectivity describes the efficiency of material transfer between geomorphic system components such as hillslopes and rivers or longitudinal segments within a river network. Representations of geomorphic systems as networks should recognize that the compartments, links, and nodes exhibit connectivity at differing scales. The historical underpinnings of connectivity in geomorphology involve management of geomorphic systems and observations linking surface processes to landform dynamics. Current work in geomorphic connectivity emphasizes hydrological, sediment, or landscape connectivity. Signatures of connectivity can be detected using diverse indicators that vary from contemporary processes to stratigraphic records or a spatial metric such as sediment yield that encompasses geomorphic processes operating over diverse time and space scales. One approach to measuring connectivity is to determine the fundamental temporal and spatial scales for the phenomenon of interest and to make measurements at a sufficiently large multiple of the fundamental scales to capture reliably a representative sample. Another approach seeks to characterize how connectivity varies with scale, by applying the same metric over a wide range of scales or using statistical measures that characterize the frequency distributions of connectivity across scales. Identifying and measuring connectivity is useful in basic and applied geomorphic research and we explore the implications of connectivity for river management. Common themes and ideas that merit further research include; increased understanding of the importance of capturing landscape heterogeneity and connectivity patterns; the potential to use graph and network theory metrics in analyzing connectivity; the need to understand which metrics best represent the physical system and its connectivity pathways, and to apply these metrics to the validation of numerical models; and the need to recognize the importance of low levels of connectivity in some situations. We emphasize the value in evaluating boundaries between components of geomorphic systems as transition zones and examining the fluxes across them to understand landscape functioning. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The operational sex ratio of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus populations: the case of the Mediterranean marine protected area of Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

We investigated, with a series of field and laboratory observations, the possible effect of the starfish Marthasteria glacialis predation on the operational sex ratio (OSR), i.e. the number of sexually mature males divided by the total number of sexually mature adults of both sexes at any one time, of the edible sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus . The OSR was estimated three times during the sea urchin summer spawning period (July 2004, June 2005 and July 2006) on barren substrates of Ustica Island Marine Protected Area (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). Four sites were selected: two characterized by high M. glacialis density (take zone C) and two controls with low starfish density (no-take zone A). Mature sea urchins were independently collected by SCUBA diving and sexed. The adult sex ratio was skewed towards males at high M. glacialis density sites, whereas it was balanced (1:1) at predator low-density sites. Results of sex-selective feeding experiments in the laboratory showed that females of P. lividus were more vulnerable to M. glacialis predation. These outcomes underline the possible importance of M. glacialis in regulating the OSR of P. lividus populations.     

Short-term under-ice variability of prokaryotic plankton communities in coastal Antarctic waters (Cape Hallett, Ross Sea)

During the 2006 Italian Antarctic expedition a diel sampling was performed close to Cape Hallett (Ross Sea) during the Austral summer. Under-ice seawater samples (4 m) were collected every 2 h for 28 h in order to estimate prokaryotic processes' variability and community structure dynamics. Prokaryotic and viral abundances, exoenzymatic activities (β-glucosidase, chitinase, lipase, alkaline phosphatase and leucine aminopeptidase), prokaryotic carbon production (³H-leucine incorporation) and community structure (Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis – DGGE fingerprints) were analysed. Results showed that the diel variability of the prokaryotic activity followed a variation in salinity, probably as a consequence of the periodical thawing of sea ice (driven by solar radiation and air temperature cycles), while negligible variation in viral and prokaryotic abundances occurred. The Bacterial and Archaeal community structures underwent an Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) temporal shift from the beginning to the end of the sampling, while Flavobacteria-specific primers highlighted high variations in this group possibly related to sea ice melting and substrate release.     

Observations of the Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> IR Triplet in High Luminosity Quasars: Exploring the Sample

We present a new spectroscopic sample of 11 quasars at intermediate redshift observed with the Infrared Spectrometer and Array Camera (ISAAC) on the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT), covering O i λ8446 and the Ca ii triplet 8498, 8542, 8662. The new observations – that supplement the sample presented by Martínez-Aldama et al. (2015) – allow us to confirm the constraints on physical conditions and location of the region emitting the low ionization lines, as well as the relation between Ca ii and Fe ii.     

Transport dynamics of mass failures along weakly cohesive clinoform foresets

This study addresses the initiation mechanisms of mass failures on clinoform foresets. Previous studies have created mass flows by releasing dense water–sediment mixtures into standing water, thus imposing the initial conditions for the mass failures rather than allowing them to form on their own. Para‐meters such as the density, composition and initial momentum of the failures are pre‐determined, precluding observation of the factors that set them initially. This study uses a new experimental method that allows a range of mass failures to self‐generate. Building a clinoform using a cohesive mixture of walnut‐shell sand and kaolinite allows the foreset to build up and fail episodically, generating mass failures. Slopes undergo a series of morphological changes prior to failure, creating a concave shape that becomes exaggerated as deposition continues. This morphology leaves the slope in a metastable state. Once the slope is destabilised, failure is initiated. This study investigates the effect of clinoform progradation rates on failure size and frequency by conducting experiments over a range of water and sediment discharge rates. Neither failure size nor failure frequency changes with discharge rate; instead, increases in sediment supply are taken up by changes in the partitioning of sediment between the steep upper foreset and the more gradual delta‐front apron (toeset) below. Sediment is delivered to the delta‐front apron by a form of semi‐continuous slow creep along the foreset. This slow creep is a failure mode that has not received sufficient attention in the submarine mass‐flow literature. The independence of failure size and frequency from sediment supply rate suggests that the presence of mass‐failure deposits does not provide information on the rate of sediment delivery. If these relations hold at field scales, this would imply that individual mass failures are relatively insensitive to changes in water and sediment supply.     

Tectonic significance of different block-in-matrix structures in exhumed convergent plate margins: examples from oceanic and continental HP rocks in Inner Western Alps (northwest Italy)

In the Inner Western Alps, three different types of block-in-matrix structures (BIMs) formed sequentially through time at a convergent plate margin. These show the superposition of progressive deformation from (i) subduction to eclogite-facies depths, (ii) collision, accretion, and exhumation of oceanic crust, represented by the Monviso Meta-ophiolite Complex, to (iii) collision, accretion, and exhumation of the continental Dora Maira units. The Type 1 occurs in the metasedimentary cover of the Dora Maira Unit and consists of a map-scale broken formation with boudinaged ‘native’ blocks of marble (Early Jurassic) in a calcschist matrix. It results from the tectonic overprinting of exhumation-related folding (D2-stage) on an earlier subduction-related dismembered succession (D1-stage). Type 1 also includes ‘non-mappable’ BIMs with ‘exotic’ blocks, resulting from the gravitational collapse of the Triassic carbonate platform of European Continental Margin, triggered by the Early Jurassic rifting. In the Monviso Meta-ophiolite Complex, Types 2 and 3 represent tectonically induced broken and dismembered formations, respectively. They differ from each other in the degree of stratal disruption of primary interbedded horizons of mafic metabreccia (Type 3) and mafic metasandstone (Types 2 and 3) sourced by the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous denudation of an oceanic core complex. Dismembered interbeds (Type 2) and isolated blocks were mixed together (Type 3) by the overlap of D2 tectonics and late- to post-exhumation extensional shearing (D3-stage). Development of these types of BIMs may be common in many exhumed convergent plate margins, where severe tectonics and metamorphic recrystallization under high-pressure conditions normally prevent the reconstruction of BIMs or mélange-forming processes. Our findings show that documenting the mode and time of the processes forming BIMs is highly relevant in order to reconstruct the oceanic seafloor morphology and composition of associated stratigraphic successions, and their control in the evolution of those convergent plate margins.