Predicting new snow density in the Italian Alps: A variability analysis based on 10 years of measurements

Despite its strong impact on the time evolution of the snowpack, current estimation of new snow density (ρ_hn) is usually accomplished either by using local empirical techniques or by assuming a constant snow density. Faced with the lack of an estimation model of ρ_hn valid for a wide spatial scale and supported by a suitable number of observations, this study aims to develop simple monthly linear regression models at scale of the entire Italian Alpine chain based on 12,112 snowfall observations at 122 stations, using only air temperature as predictor. Moreover, the remaining variance is investigated in both time and space, also considering some qualitative features of the snowfall events. The daily ρ_hn measurements present a mean value of 115 kg m^?3 (105 and 159 kg m^?3 for dry and wet conditions, respectively). The mean air temperature of the 24 hr preceding the snowfall event has been found to be the best predictor of the ρ_hn, within 31% of uncertainty. The analysis of associated residues allows supporting the idea that the adoption of a more local approach than the one analysed here is not able to substantially increase the predictive capabilities of the model. In fact, the main factor explaining the remaining variance over the air temperature is the wind, but in a complex orography, as mountain regions are, supplying realistic local wind fields is particularly challenging. Therefore, we conclude that using only the daily mean temperature as predictor is a good choice for estimating daily new snow density at scale of Italian Alpine chain, as well as at more regional scale.     

Segmented, curved faults: the example of the Balduini Thrust Zone, Northern Apennines, Italy

Meso- and micro-structural studies of the well-exposed Balduini Thrust (Northern Apennines, Italy) indicate that the structure formed during a single folding event, contemporaneous with diagenesis, and is a zone comprising curved, en-échelon fault segments. The geometry of each segment is arcuate with pure compression at one end and right-lateral displacement along the other. The thrust developed during the Tortonian within a single mud-rich formation, the Upper Eocene–Upper Oligocene Scaglia Cinerea, but rheological variations within the unit led to differences in deformation style; zones of scaly fabric are discontinuous and calcite veins vary in abundance. The mesoscopic morphology of the veins and the distribution of calcium carbonate along the formation indicate variations in the distribution of fluids at the time of deformation, which affected both diagenesis and the structural response of the material. Systematic variations of mechanical properties within the thickness of the Scaglia Cinerea Formation account for the curvature of the propagating thrust. Together with the heterogeneity of the stress field, the confinement of the arcing thrust to this single, weak unit lead to repeated initiation of new fractures and hence segmentation of the propagating thrust. Geometric analysis of the calcite veins and their microscopic characters suggests that hydrofracturing was involved, with the Scaglia Cinerea Formation experiencing high fluid pressure followed by rapid water expulsion. The Balduini Thrust is therefore an example of a fluid-driven, refracted compound shear zone. The analysis presented here provides insights into the three-dimensional arrangement of fault zones and fluid-migration patterns during regional faulting.     

From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa

Natural Hazards - Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic...     

Sedimentology,architecture, and sequence stratigraphy of coarse-grained,submarine canyon fills from the Pleistocene (Gelasian-Calabrian) of the Peri-Adriatic basin,central Italy

The Plio-Pleistocene stratigraphic record of the Peri-Adriatic basin (eastern central Italy) is well exposed along the uplifted western margin of the basin and consists of a series of coarse-grained slope canyon fills encased in a thick succession of hemipelagic mudstones. This study deals with the detailed sedimentology, stratal architecture, and sequence-stratigraphic interpretation of two of these submarine canyon-fills (namely CMC1 and CMC2) exposed at Colle Montarone. These strata contain widespread evidence of gravity-driven sedimentation processes, with high- and low-density turbidity currents, slumps and cohesive debris flows being responsible for most of the sediment transport and deposition. Beds are organised into four recurrent lithofacies, each corresponding to a specific deep-water depositional element: (i) clast-supported conglomerates (channel complexes); (ii) thin-bedded sandstones and mudstones (levee-overbank); (iii) very thinly-bedded mudstones (tributary channels); (iv) pebbly mudstones and chaotically bedded mudstones (mass-transport complexes).     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential in an intermountain Quaternary lacustrine basin (Fucino basin,central Italy)

In this study, we analyse the susceptibility to liquefaction of the Pozzone site, which is located on the northern side of the Fucino lacustrine basin in central Italy. In 1915, this region was struck by a M 7.0 earthquake, which produced widespread coseismic surface effects that were interpreted to be liquefaction-related. However, the interpretation of these phenomena at the Pozzone site is not straightforward. Furthermore, the site is characterized by an abundance of fine-grained sediments, which are not typically found in liquefiable soils. Therefore, in this study, we perform a number of detailed stratigraphic and geotechnical investigations (including continuous-coring borehole, CPTu, SDMT, SPT, and geotechnical laboratory tests) to better interpret these 1915 phenomena and to evaluate the liquefaction potential of a lacustrine environment dominated by fine-grained sedimentation. The upper 18.5 m of the stratigraphic succession comprises fine-grained sediments, including four strata of coarser sediments formed by interbedded layers of sand, silty sand and sandy silt. These strata, which are interpreted to represent the frontal lobes of an alluvial fan system within a lacustrine succession, are highly susceptible to liquefaction. We also find evidence of paleo-liquefaction, dated between 12.1–10.8 and 9.43–9.13 kyrs ago, occurring at depths of 2.1–2.3 m. These data, along with the aforementioned geotechnical analyses, indicate that this site would indeed be liquefiable in a 1915-like earthquake. Although we found a broad agreement among CPTu, DMT and shear wave velocity “simplified procedures” in detecting the liquefaction potential of the Pozzone soil, our results suggest that the use and comparison of different in situ techniques are highly recommended for reliable estimates of the cyclic liquefaction resistance in lacustrine sites characterized by high content of fine-grained soils. In geologic environments similar to the one analysed in this work, where it is difficult to detect liquefiable layers, one can identify sites that are susceptible to liquefaction only by using detailed stratigraphic reconstructions, in situ characterization, and laboratory analyses. This has implications for basic (Level 1) seismic microzonation mapping, which typically relies on the use of empirical evaluations based on geologic maps and pre-existing sub-surface data (i.e., age and type of deposits, prevailing grain size, with particular attention paid to clean sands, and depth of the water table).     

Tomography of crustal seismic attenuation in Metropolitan France: implications for seismicity analysis

In this work, we map the absorption properties of the French crust by analyzing the decay properties of coda waves. Estimation of the coda quality factor \(Q_{c}\) in five non-overlapping frequency-bands between 1 and 32 Hz is performed for more than 12,000 high-quality seismograms from about 1700 weak to moderate crustal earthquakes recorded between 1995 and 2013. Based on sensitivity analysis, \(Q_{c}\) is subsequently approximated as an integral of the intrinsic shear wave quality factor \(Q_{i}\) along the ray connecting the source to the station. After discretization of the medium on a 2-D Cartesian grid, this yields a linear inverse problem for the spatial distribution of \(Q_{i}\). The solution is approximated by redistributing \(Q_{c}\) in the pixels connecting the source to the station and averaging over all paths. This simple procedure allows to obtain frequency-dependent maps of apparent absorption that show lateral variations of \(50\%\) at length scales ranging from 50 km to 150 km, in all the frequency bands analyzed. At low frequency, the small-scale geological features of the crust are clearly delineated: the Meso-Cenozoic basins (Aquitaine, Brabant, Southeast) appear as strong absorption regions, while crystalline massifs (Armorican, Central Massif, Alps) appear as low absorption zones. At high frequency, the correlation between the surface geological features and the absorption map disappears, except for the deepest Meso-Cenozoic basins which exhibit a strong absorption signature. Based on the tomographic results, we explore the implications of lateral variations of absorption for the analysis of both instrumental and historical seismicity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) current local magnitude \(M_{L}\) can be over(resp. under)-estimated when absorption is weaker(resp. stronger) than the nominal value assumed in the amplitude-distance relation; (2) both the forward prediction of the earthquake macroseismic intensity field and the estimation of historical earthquake seismological parameters using macroseismic intensity data are significantly improved by taking into account a realistic 2-D distribution of absorption. In the future, both \(M_{L}\) estimations and macroseismic intensity attenuation models should benefit from high-resolution models of frequency-dependent absorption such as the one produced in this study.     

Selecting time windows of seismic phases and noise for engineering seismology applications: a versatile methodology and algorithm

Seismic signal windowing is the preliminary step for many analysis procedures in engineering seismology (standard spectral ratio, quality factor, general inversion techniques, etc.). Moreover a noise window is often necessary for the data quality control through the signal-to-noise verification. Selecting the noise window can be challenging when large heterogeneous datasets are considered, especially when they include short pre-event noise signals. This study proposes a fully automatic and configurable (i.e., with default parameters that can also be user-defined) algorithm to windowing the noise and the P, S, coda and full signal once the P-wave (T _P ) and S-wave (T _S ) first arrivals are known. An application example is given on a KiK-net dataset. A Matlab language implementation of this algorithm is proposed as an online resource.     

Exploration tree approach to estimate historical earthquakes Mw and depth,test cases from the French past seismicity

The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.     

A multi‐performance design method for seismic upgrading of existing RC frames by BRBs

In the world, many existing buildings with RC framed structure were designed according to old seismic standards and present structural deficiencies. Buckling Restrained Braces (BRBs) can be effective for seismic upgrading of these structures, as pointed out by many studies. Nevertheless, Eurocode 8 (EC8) does not provide any rules for design of BRBs. This lack represents a big obstacle for application of this seismic upgrading technique in Europe. For this reason, a method for the design of seismic upgrading interventions by BRBs is proposed in this paper. The method is obtained as the best between two variants developed, investigated and compared in this paper. Based on a numerical investigation, the parameters that control the design method are calibrated to ensure the fulfillment of the Near Collapse performance objective stipulated in EC8. Finally, the capability of the proposed design method in fulfilling also performance objectives not explicitly considered in design is investigated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.