VOLUMETRIC SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION IN DEBRIS FLOWS

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雨水入渗对非饱和土坡稳定性影响的参数研究

很多国家和地区的斜坡失稳与雨水入渗有密切关系。通过参数分析研究可以深化对这种关系的认识和理解,因而对滑坡灾害的预测和预防有重要意义。针对香港地区一种典型非饱和土斜坡,用有限元法模拟雨水入渗引起的暂态渗流场,然后将计算得到的暂态孔隙水压力分布用于斜坡的极限平衡分析。计算中采用延伸的摩尔－库伦破坏准则以便考虑基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献,研究了降雨特征、水文地质条件及坡面防渗处理等因素对暂态渗流场和斜坡安全因数的影响。数值模拟结果表明：降雨强度、降雨历时和雨型对暂态渗流场及斜坡稳定性有明显的影响;土体的渗透系数,尤其是渗透系数各向异性的影响特别显著;斜坡中相对隔水层的存在以及斜坡防渗护面的效果等因素的影响均不容忽视。     

Seasonal circulation in the southeastern Huanghai Sea

The seasonal circulation in the southeastern Huanghai Sea has been studied with hydrographic data,which were observed in February and June 1994 and bimonthly during 1970-1990,and numerical model results.Horiwntal distributions of temperature and salinity in 1994 are quite different due to strong tidal mixing so that we need a analysis to see the real distributions of water masses.The mixing ratio analysis with the data of 1970-1990 shows the connection of the waters in the west coasts of Kotea Peninsula with warm and saline waters from the south in summer,which means northward inflows along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula in summer.With this flow,the seasonal circulations,which are deduced from the seasonal change of water mass distributions in the lower layer,are warm inflows in winter and mld outflows in summer in the central Huanghai Sea,and cold outflows in winter and warm inflows in summer along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula.The seasonally changed inflows might be the Huanghai Sea Warm Current.The monsoon winds can drive such circulations.However,summer monsoon winds are weak and irregular.As one of other possible dynamics,the variation of Kuroshio transport is numerically studied with allowing sea level fluctuations.Although it should be studied more,it possibly drives the summer circulations.The real circulations seem to be driven by both of them.     

日本琵琶湖表面定振波的计算

利用水动力学方程对口本琵琶湖表面定振波进行了计算和分析,结果表明其主要周期约为69．5min,另外,利用实测水位资料,采用最大熵谱法进行分析,得到了主要周期约为68min,两者吻合很好。     

基于多源资料的一次弓状强飑线成熟结构研究

利用局地分析和预报系统(Local Analysis and Prediction System, LAPS),结合多源资料,分析了2018年3月4日暖区强飑线成熟阶段的热动力结构和大风形成机制。结果表明：暖区内层结不稳定范围向东扩展和强的垂直风切变,驱动飑线组织化加强并向前移动和发展。成熟阶段飑线热动力结构呈现出两支强入流和冷池的典型特征,即前侧入流在低层(0～3.0 km)辐合上升,部分气流在高层翻转流向系统前侧,无后向流出;后侧中层(4.0～5.5 km)入流进入云体后部,在水凝物强烈相变降温作用下,密度增大转而下沉;下沉气流区降雨蒸发冷却增强了雷暴冷池。相比于飑线南段单一的对流线,北段弓形特点突出,后侧入流下降,加之存在尾随层状云,有更大的潜在冷却作用,促进气流加速下沉增强地面雷暴高压,最终导致更强的极端大风。     

海岛管理信息系统的设计与实现

探讨了ArcEngine平台和ArcSDE数据引擎的原理,并结合山东省"908"专项调查的数据,构建了海岛管理信息系统。系统将不同学科、不同来源、不同格式的数据进行集成管理、分析和表达,实现了海岛调查数据的有效管理,为海岛的开发、利用和规划提供了科学依据。     

水文站在线流量测验方法初探

提出了寻找水文站流量测验断面平均流速的代表性垂线流速,从而得到满足测验精度之下的在线流量测验方法,并对进而配置自动化遥测流量测验设备测流、寻找水面一点流速的相关位置测流提出了相关建议。以秦淮河流域句容河前垾村水文站1990~2016年918个流量测验成果为分析对象。分析结果表明在高水期、中水期、低水期,起点距为65 m的垂线平均流速与断面平均流速的确定性系数R都在0.98以上,起点距为65 m的测速垂线适宜作为高、中、低水期的V-ADCP自动测流设备安装位置。上述研究为全国同类型水文站在线流量测验研究提供可行的建议使用方法。     

Addressing regional disparities in allowance allocation in China’s national emissions trading scheme

China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS) is expected to be operational in 2017. Effectively addressing regional disparities at the provincial level in allowance allocation will greatly affect the acceptance of the allocation approach and thus deserves careful consideration. This article aims to explore possible approaches for addressing regional disparities, by introducing regional adjustment factors (RAF) in free allowance allocation. Based on the principle of ‘national unified rules?+?stricter adjustment by provincial authorities’, four single factorial and three multi-factorial methods are proposed to calculate the RAFs, through a normalization process. These methods are associated with the most acknowledged factors dealing with regional disparities, including per-capita GDP; per-capita CO₂ emissions; industrial sector contribution to GDP; economy-wide emissions control targets and CO₂ emissions per unit GDP, per unit power and heat output and per unit industrial added value. A comparative analysis is made for the seven methods, in regard to value distribution and level of matching regional political demand.

Key policy insights

• ‘Allowing stricter regional adjustment’ represents a dominant feature for China's national ETS, which aims to address regional disparities and government demands.

• How the adjustment plan is designed will have a major influence on the operation of the national ETS and regional business competitiveness. Provincial governments need to consider the trade-off between auction revenue and local business competitiveness.

• Applying the different methods leads to more scattered results for some regions, for whom the choice of adjustment approach will therefore have a greater impact.

• Based on the analysis, four adjustment methods that generate similar results – the per-capita GDP-based method, the intensity reduction target-based method, the 12th FYP target-based method and intensity-based grandfathering – are recommended for most provincial-level regions, with some exceptions.

     

1990—2019年江苏片区入太湖水量变化及原因分析

为了对江苏片区主要入太湖水量的原因进行定量化分析研究,基于1990-2019年的气象数据、遥感数据以及沿江引水量数据,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验与突变检验法、Envi5.3以及Pearson系数法分别对近30年入湖水量、建筑用地、降雨量和蒸发量与引江水量进行了突变检验,并以入湖水量为因变量,对各因素间的相关性和贡献度做了量化研究.结果表明,研究区域的入湖水量近30年来上升趋势达到了95%,城市化率、气象条件和沿江引水量都是导致其变化的主要原因,其中人为干扰(城市化率和沿江引水量)与自然影响(气象条件)的贡献度各占50%.未来建议强化海绵城市的建设,合理科学地对沿江水资源进行调度使用,以降低城镇化率上升与外部引水增加带来的影响.