Denitrification in a Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetland invaded by hybrid cattail (Typha × glauca)

Wetland ecosystems maintain and improve water quality through the process of denitrification, an increasingly important ecosystem service due to global N pollution. Invasive plants have the potential to disrupt denitrification by altering the environmental conditions that facilitate this process. Great Lakes coastal wetlands are experiencing widespread invasion by highly productive hybrid cattail with largely uncertain biogeochemical effects. Through field and controlled mesocosm studies, we sought to determine the effects of cattail invasion through time on denitrification rates and associated environmental factors in a Great Lakes coastal wetland. In the field, we found that cattail density correlated with increased denitrification and a suite of environmental and plant community characteristics and denitrification rates were positively correlated with NH₄ ⁺, sediment organic matter, reduced water levels, and cattail stand age. Through our controlled mesocosm study, we documented conditions 1- and 5-year following invasion and found that denitrification rates and soil organic matter increased in year 5, and cattail and year-since-invasion altered plant communities and soil NH₄ ⁺. Only a weak correlation between denitrification rates and cattail treatments was noted, however, owing to high replicate variability. Our results indicate that with increasing cattail residence time, one ecosystem service, biodiversity, was negatively impacted, while two other services, denitrification and sediment carbon accumulation, were enhanced. Thus, this highly invaded wetland still provides valuable services to aquatic ecosystems and to society. A holistic perspective is therefore critical when evaluating invasive species impacts in which negative impacts are weighed against other ecosystem services, which may be stimulated.     

Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem

Any initial value forecast of climate will be subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, model imperfections, and by "chaos" in the sense that, even if the initial conditions were perfectly known, infinitesimal errors can amplify and spoil the forecast at some lead time. Here the latter source of error is examined using a "perfect model" approach whereby small perturbations are made to a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and the spread of nearby model trajectories, on time and space scales appropriate to seasonal-decadal climate variability, is measured to assess the lead time at which the error saturates. The study therefore represents an estimate of the upper limit of the predictability of climate (appropriate to the initial value problem) given a perfect model and near perfect knowledge of the initial conditions. It is found that, on average, surface air temperature anomalies are potentially predictable on seasonal to interannual time scales in the tropical regions and are potentially predictable on decadal time scales over the ocean in the North Atlantic. For mid-latitude surface air temperature anomalies over land, model trajectories rapidly diverge and there is little sign of any potential predictability on time scales greater than a season or so. For mean sea level pressure anomalies, there is potential predictability on seasonal time scales in the tropics, and for some global scale annual-decadal anomalies, although not those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. For precipitation, the only potential for predictability is for seasonal time anomalies associated with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation. For the majority of the highly populated regions of the world, climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales based in the initial value approach is likely to be severely limited by chaotic error growth. It is found however that there can be cases in which the potential predictability can be higher than average indicating that there is perhaps some utility in making initial value forecasts of climate in those regions which show low predictability on average.     

Onshore/offshore wind influence on breaking waves: An empirical study

Beach based and in-situ observations of plunging and spilling breakers, with associated localised wind data, have isolated important characteristics regarding breaking waves in the surf zone. Offshore winds enhance the development of plunging breakers; onshore winds, the development of spilling breakers. Extremely strong offshore, or onshore winds, may re-introduce more spilling or plunging breaker-type characteristics, respectively.