A Modeling System for Studying Climate Controls on Mountain Glaciers with Application to the Patagonian Icefields

A modeling system for investigating meteorological controls on glacier mass balance is described and applied to the Southern Patagonian Icefield. Output from a mesoscale atmospheric model is used to drive a glacier mass balance model using model precipitation and turbulent fluxes adjusted to account for the unrealistically low surface elevations of the icefield in the atmospheric model. Simulations of January and July conditionsproduce glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) that are higher than the observed, but the ELA gradient is realistically simulated. The high ELAs are primarily due to underestimates of vertical temperature gradients in the atmospheric model and uncertainties in the ablation season length. The model shows that both winter and summerprecipitation, as well as summer temperatures, are important determinants of the mass balance of the Southern Patagonia glaciers. The position of the icefield on the continent is also relevant. On the western side of the icefield, precipitation rates are high and dominate the mass balance calculation. In the east, ablation is much more important for determining the mass balance, and this introduces an enhanced sensitivity to atmospheric temperature, wind speed, and atmosphericmoisture levels.     

Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models

A method for simulating future climate on regional space scales is developed and applied to northern Africa. Simulation with a regional model allows for the horizontal resolution needed to resolve the region’s strong meridional gradients and the optimization of parameterizations and land-surface model. The control simulation is constrained by reanalysis data, and realistically represents the present day climate. Atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) output provides SST and lateral boundary condition anomalies for 2081–2100 under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, and the atmospheric CO₂ concentration is increased to 757 ppmv. A nine-member ensemble of future climate projections is generated by using output from nine AOGCMs. The consistency of precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century is much greater for the regional model ensemble than among the AOGCMs. More than 77% of ensemble members produce the same sign rainfall anomaly over much of northern Africa. For West Africa, the regional model projects wetter conditions in spring, but a mid-summer drought develops during June and July, and the heat stoke risk increases across the Sahel. Wetter conditions resume in late summer, and the likelihood of flooding increases. The regional model generally projects wetter conditions over eastern Central Africa in June and drying during August through September. Severe drought impacts parts of East Africa in late summer. Conditions become wetter in October, but the enhanced rainfall does not compensate for the summertime deficit. The risk of heat stroke increases over this region, although the threat is not projected to be as great as in the Sahel.     

Rapid vegetation responses and feedbacks amplify climate model response to snow cover changes

We investigate the response of a climate system model to two different methods for estimating snow cover fraction. In the control case, snow cover fraction changes gradually with snow depth; in the alternative scenarios (one with prescribed vegetation and one with dynamic vegetation), snow cover fraction initially increases with snow depth almost twice as fast as the control method. In cases where the vegetation was fixed (prescribed), the choice of snow cover parameterization resulted in a limited model response. Increased albedo associated with the high snow caused some moderate localized cooling (3–5°C), mostly at very high latitudes (>70°N) and during the spring season. During the other seasons, however, the cooling was not very extensive. With dynamic vegetation the change is much more dramatic. The initial increases in snow cover fraction with the new parameterization lead to a large-scale southward retreat of boreal vegetation, widespread cooling, and persistent snow cover over much of the boreal region during the boreal summer. Large cold anomalies of up to 15°C cover much of northern Eurasia and North America and the cooling is geographically extensive in the northern hemisphere extratropics, especially during the spring and summer seasons. This study demonstrates the potential for dynamic vegetation within climate models to be quite sensitive to modest forcing. This highlights the importance of dynamic vegetation, both as an amplifier of feedbacks in the climate system and as an essential consideration when implementing adjustments to existing model parameters and algorithms.     

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Changes in growing seasons for 2041–2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5–10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5–15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40–80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.     

When Can Inverted Water Tables Occur Beneath Streams?

Decline in regional water tables (RWT) can cause losing streams to disconnect from underlying aquifers. When this occurs, an inverted water table (IWT) will develop beneath the stream, and an unsaturated zone will be present between the IWT and the RWT. The IWT marks the base of the saturated zone beneath the stream. Although a few prior studies have suggested the likelihood of an IWT without a clogging layer, most of them have assumed that a low‐permeability streambed is required to reduce infiltration from surface water to groundwater, and that the IWT only occurs at the bottom of the low‐permeability layer. In this study, we use numerical simulations to show that the development of an IWT beneath an unclogged stream is theoretically possible under steady‐state conditions. For a stream width of 1 m above a homogeneous and isotropic sand aquifer with a 47 m deep RWT (measured in an observation point 20 m away from the center of the stream), an IWT will occur provided that the stream depth is less than a critical value of 4.1 m. This critical stream depth is the maximum water depth in the stream to maintain the occurrence of an IWT. The critical stream depth decreases with stream width. For a stream width of 6 m, the critical stream depth is only 1 mm. Thus while theoretically possible, an IWT is unlikely to occur at steady state without a clogging layer, unless a stream is very narrow or shallow and the RWT is very deep.     

第25届IUGG大会将于2011年6月27日至7月8日在澳大利亚墨尔本举行

国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会(IUGG)第25届大会将于2011年6月27日至7月8日在澳大利亚墨尔本举行。大会将在位于市中心的墨尔本会展中心召开(欲了解更多该会展中心信息,请登录http:∥     

Archaeological geophysics investigation of the Wright Brothers 1910 hangar site

An archaeological geophysics investigation was conducted at the site of the Wright Brothers' 1910 hangar near Dayton, Ohio. The hangar was destroyed as part of base renovation during the buildup to World War II, and its exact location is unknown. The purpose of the investigation is to confirm the exact location of the hangar and to locate any buried artifacts from the Wright Brothers occupation of the site. Ground penetrating radar (GPR), electromagnetic, and magnetic surveys were conducted over a 68 × 100 m area, approximately centered on the suspected location of the hangar. Localized anomalies as well as areal anomalies are identified in the geophysical data. Rectangular anomalous areas are identified that are generally consistent with the suspected location of the hangar. A 1924 aerial photograph showing the hangar was digitally scanned and georeferenced to the site survey area. Two of the rectangular geophysical anomalous areas are consistent with the hangar location from the aerial photograph location. A third rectangular area, defined from GPR survey data, is immediately adjacent to the aerial photograph location. It is postulated that base engineers may have bulldozed the hangar debris onto an area adjacent to its original location and either burned it there or buried it in a trench. A prioritized exploratory program is proposed for investigating the sources of the geophysical anomalies. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.