地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究

在收集、整理1966年～2002年8月我国(主要为大陆地区)183个5级以上地震序列资料的基础上，应用灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法，对每一地震序列较强(显著)余震发震时间进行“硬性”检验预测。结果表明，2种预测方法对7级以上地震序列和6级地震序列的较强(显著)余震具有较好的预测效能，预测效能分别为76．2％和64．7％；而对5级地震序列预测效果则不甚明显。因此，灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法主要着眼于对大(强)地震的较强(显著)余震预测，可望在地震现场大(强)震应急工作中发挥积极作用。     

硬戈壁沙漠杂波研究

对新疆库尔勒地区硬戈壁沙漠地杂波进行了研究．得到了Ｃ波段低擦地角（０．１°－７°）下有色杂波值，其值范围为－６０－－２０ｄＢ；并进行了白化处理，得到相应此有色杂波的白色杂波值，其值为一常数－２５ｄＢ，其电压幅度为±０．８Ｖ，不随擦地角变化．     

华北地区地震异常前兆信息场演化特征及其与地震关系的研究

在对地震异常前兆信息量先前研究的基础上,进一步给出了描述各种地震异常前兆信息量的普适性综合数学表达式.从大量震例资料入手,再次研究了地震异常延续有效性的问题,进而建立了地震异常持续有效时间与延续有效时间的数学关系式.收集整理了1980～1997年华北地区水化、形变、地磁、应力、水位、地电等371个观测项目、上百万个前兆观测数据,对每一观测项目逐一计算了它们的地震异常前兆信息量.研究了华北地区近20年的地震异常前兆信息场的演化特征及其与地震的关系,建立了华北地区Ms≥5地震的中短期综合预报指标体系,经R值评分检验,表明该地震综合预报指标体系在中短期地震预测中具有一定效果.     

地震序列较强余震最小二乘拟合预测的方法研究

本研究给出了针对地震序列较强余震发生时间进行快速预测的一种方法,即最小二乘拟合预测方法.该方法包括:最小二乘拟合预测模型的建立、预测模型的各种可信性检验及模型预测等内容.震例研究表明,该方法在大(强)地震现场震情分析中可望发挥积极作用.     

横带髭鲷(Hapalogenys mucronatus)仔鱼饥饿不可逆点及摄食生长特性研究

横带髭鲷(Hapalogenys mucronatus)为我国东南沿海具有良好发展前景的养殖鱼类,目前亟待突破其规模化苗种培育的瓶颈技术问题。为探究横带髭鲷仔鱼发育阶段的摄食和生长特性,采用实验生态学方法,在水温(24±0.2)℃、盐度为26的条件下对饥饿仔鱼形态发育、生长、不可逆点及投喂状态下的摄食节律进行研究。结果表明,孵化出膜后的初孵仔鱼,3日龄开口摄食,进入混合营养期,3日龄卵黄囊消耗完毕,油球于8日龄消耗完全,混合营养期为5d。饥饿组仔鱼全长呈先增长后下降趋势,拐点出现在3日龄,在4日龄有畸形仔鱼出现。饥饿仔鱼初次摄食率为10.12%,最高初次摄食率出现在7日龄,为85.06%;PNR出现在7日龄和8日龄之间,至9日龄全部死亡。早期仔鱼(7日龄)的摄食高峰出现在7:00、11:00和15:00,晚期仔鱼(14日龄)在7:00、11:00、15:00和19:00四个时间段,摄食高峰均出现在白天,属于典型的白天摄食类型,随着仔鱼的生长发育,摄食高峰有所延长。横带髭鲷仔鱼最佳开口摄食时间在3日龄,掌握仔鱼的摄食高峰期,在此时间段驯化配合饲料,对于活体饵料向配合饲料的驯食转化具有重要实践意义。     

基于阈值区间的海洋锋面提取模型

A model （Bayesian oceanic front detection, BOFD） of sea surface temperature （SST） front detection in satel- lite-derived SST images based on a threshold interval is presented, to be used in different applications such as climatic and environmental studies or fisheries. The model first computes the SST gradient by using a Sobel algorithm template. On the basis of the gradient value, the threshold interval is determined by a gradi- ent cumulative histogram. According to this threshold interval, front candidates can be acquired and prior probability and likelihood can be calculated. Whether or not the candidates are front points can be deter- mined by using the Bayesian decision theory. The model is evaluated on the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer images of part of the Kuroshio front region. Results are compared with those obtained by using several SST front detection methods proposed in the literature. This comparison shows that the BOFD not only suppresses noise and small-scale fronts, but also retains continuous fronts.     

Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain

The mei-yu front heavy rainstorms occurred over Nanjing on 3 5 and 8 9 July 2003 and were simulated in this paper using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFv3.1) with various mesoscale convection parameterization schemes (MCPSs). The simulations show that the temporal and spatial evolution and distribution of rainstorms can be modeled; however, there was incongruity between the comparative simulations of four different MCPSs and the observed data. These disparities were exhibited in the simulations of both the 24-hour surface rainfall total and the hourly precipitation rate. Further analysis revealed that the discrepancies of vertical velocity and the convective vorticity vector (CVV) between the four simulations were attributed to the deviation of rainfall values. In addition, the simulations show that the mid-scale convection, particularly the mesoscale convection system (MCS) formation, can be well simulated with the proper mesoscale convection parameterization schemes and may be a crucial factor of the mei-yu front heavy rainstorm. These results suggest that, in an effort to enhance simulation and prediction of heavy rainfall and rainstorms, subsequent studies should focus on the development and improvement of MCPS.     

台风“梅花”路径转折期间的结构特征分析与模拟

利用多种资料对2011年第9号热带气旋“梅花”的两次路径转折过程进行诊断分析和数值模拟,结果表明:副热带高压、中纬度槽和越赤道气流等外部大环境场的变化对路径转向有影响,第一次路径转折期间,眼墙和螺旋云带分布变化不大;第二次路径转折前后,台风眼墙从双眼墙结构演变成明显的非对称结构,台风眼区发生了眼墙置换与合并,以及螺旋云带与眼墙合并过程。机制的定量分析表明:第一次转向期间,环境风场的纬向和经向分量对引导气流的贡献在83%以上,表明外部环境风场对其路径转向的影响较大,内部的风暴尺度风场对其路径转折的影响程度较小;第二次转向期间,风暴尺度场的纬向分量对引导引流贡献的百分比从23%上升到36%,经向分量对引导引流贡献的百分比介于35%~47%之间,表明内部非对称结构与外部大尺度环境流场对第二次路径转折都有影响。     

Method discussion for quick response grey prediction of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence

In this paper, we take occurrence process of early strong aftershocks of a main-after shock type′s earthquake sequence as a complex grey system, and introduce predicting method for its stronger aftershocks by grey predicting theory. Through inspection prediction for 1998 Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake sequence, it shows that the grey predicting method maybe has active significance for the investigation of quick response prediction problems of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence.     

A study on seismic source process in short- term and imminent stage before destructive mining shock

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