Can Census Offices publish statistics for more than one small area geography? An analysis of the differencing problem in statistical disclosure

The paper describes a problem faced by National Statistical Offices when publishing the results of decennial censuses for small geographical areas. If they publish statistical tables for two or more sets of areas, users can compare the tables and produce new statistics for the areas formed by differencing, which may have populations below confidentiality thresholds. To investigate the problem, the authors construct a software system and carry out a series of experiments using a large synthetic population base for Yorkshire and Humberside. The results indicate that publishing statistics for zones close in size to the primary areas is not safe unless the zones have been carefully designed. However, publishing statistics for sufficiently large areas such as 5 km grid squares or postal sectors alongside enumeration districts is safe.     

RESPONSE OF A MONTENEGRO GLACIER TO EXTREME SUMMER HEATWAVES IN 2003 AND 2007

The Debeli Namet glacier in the Durmitor massif, Montenegro, is one of the lowest altitude glaciers (2050–2300 m) at this latitude (42–44°N) in the northern hemisphere. The glacier survives well below the climatological equilibrium line altitude because of substantial inputs from avalanching and windblown snow. The glacier survived two of the hottest summers on record in 2003 and 2007, although it experienced significant retreat. However, during the intervening years (2004–2006) the glacier increased in size and advanced, forming a new frontal moraine. This rapid advance was primarily in response to much cooler summer temperatures, close to or cooler than average, and a marked increase in winter precipitation. The rapid growth and decay of the Debeli Namet glacier in response to inter‐annual climate variability highlights the sensitivity of small cirque glaciers to short‐term climate change.     

美国干热岩"地热能前沿瞭望台研究计划"与中美典型EGS场地勘查现状对比

美国能源部正在实施干热岩“地热能前沿瞭望台研究计划”(FORGE计划)。它是以经典干热岩定义的干热岩勘查开发为约束,通过增强型地热系统(EGS)示范工程建设实践,形成新一代EGS试验平台。美国本着“可复制的结果=巨大的潜力”的理念,实现干热岩勘查开发技术新突破,以满足美国1亿家庭绿色电力供应为实际应用目标。中美典型EGS场地勘查现状对比结果表明：犹他州米尔福德与青海省共和县恰卜恰两个典型EGS场地具可比性,大致处于“并跑”的水平;在天然裂隙系统、原位地应力场、压裂参数获取与压裂方案制定等方面,米尔福德EGS场地有所超前。据此建议有关部门加快青海省共和县恰卜恰EGS场地进入勘查开发阶段,以提高我国干热岩勘查开发技术水平,早日实现EGS工程化。     

Chemical Petrology of Grenville Schists near Fernleigh, Ontario

A suite of mica schists from the staurolite zone was studiedin detail. Phase rule considerations and distribution relationsindicate that chemical equilibrium was attained within the samplevolume. Iron-magnesium ratios of the silicates vary greatly,and correlate with rock ferrous-ferric ratio, as does the oxidemineral mode. Rock oxidation state varies locally, and is probablydependent on the composition of the original sediment. Distribution coefficients for Fe, Mg, and Mn among garnet, biotote,and staurolite show no vaiation attributable to temperature.Partition of Fe and Mg between staurolite and biotite is regular,but non-ideal. The staurolite structure permits only limited(15–35 percent) substitution of Mg for Fe.     

Last Glacial Maximum equilibrium-line altitude trends and precipitation patterns in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southern Colorado, USA

Precipitation patterns during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Rocky Mountains varied due to the influence of the continental ice sheets and pluvial lakes. However, no constraints have been placed on potential changes of southeasterly Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture that today contributes considerable precipitation to the easternmost ranges of the southern and middle Rocky Mountains. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado are ideally situated to assess the relative importance of westerly and southeasterly-derived moisture during the LGM. Based on reconstructions of 30 palaeoglaciers in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, we find that LGM equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) on the east side of the range were systematically 100–200 m lower than ELAs on the west side. The observed ELA pattern is strikingly similar to modern precipitation patterns in the study area, suggesting that southeasterly-derived precipitation had a significant influence on the mass balances of LGM glaciers.     

Modelling of water quality processes in lakes and reservoirs. II

ABSTRACT

The snowmelt runoff process from small basins is discussed. A differentiation is made between overland flow in the snowpack and groundwater flow induced by infiltrating meltwater. The effect of variations of the snowmelt intensity on streamflow is studied. It is shown that the runoff is high from the first day of snowmelt runoff if the streamflow is caused by overland flow, and that there are pronounced peaks every day, which almost correspond with the snowmelt intensity during daytime. Streamflow originating from groundwater, on the other hand, increases continuously during the snowmelt and shows only small daily peaks in the flow. Simultaneous overland and groundwater flow are also discussed. Observed runoff hydrographs from small basins are analysed in some detail. For the open fields studied the runoff shows the typical character of overland flow. For a rather large forested area the surface runoff also constitutes an important part of the runoff, but the groundwater baseflow is considerable.     

Early Last Interglacial palaeoenvironments in the western Baltic Sea: benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes and diatom‐based sea‐surface salinity

Knudsen, K. L., Jiang, H., Kristensen, P., Gibbard, P. L. & Haila, H. 2011: Early Last Interglacial palaeoenvironments in the western Baltic Sea: benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes and diatom‐based sea‐surface salinity. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2011.00206.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Stable isotopes from benthic foraminifera, combined with diatom assemblage analysis and diatom‐based sea‐surface salinity reconstructions, are used for the interpretation of changes in bottom‐ and surface‐water conditions through the early Eemian at Ristinge Klint in the western Baltic Sea. Correlation of the sediments with the Eemian Stage is based on a previously published pollen analysis that indicates that they represent pollen zones E2–E5 and span ～3400 years. An initial brackish‐water phase, initiated c. 300 years after the beginning of the interglacial, is characterized by a rapid increase in sea‐surface and sea‐bottom salinity, followed by a major increase at c. 650 years, which is related to the opening of the Danish Straits to the western Baltic. The diatoms allow estimation of the maximum sea‐surface salinity in the time interval of c. 650–1250 years. After that, slightly reduced salinity is estimated for the interval of c. 1250–2600 years (with minimum values at c. 1600–2200 years). This may be related to a period of high precipitation/humidity and thus increased freshwater run‐off from land. Together with a continuous increase in the water depth, this may have contributed to the gradual development of a stratified water column after c. 1600 years. The stratification was, however, particularly pronounced between c. 2600 and 3400 years, a period with particularly high sea‐surface temperature, as well as bottom‐water salinity, and thus a maximum influence of Atlantic water masses. The freshwater run‐off from land may have been reduced as a result of particularly high summer temperatures during the climatic optimum.