Recent population trends of sooty and light-mantled albatrosses breeding on Marion Island

Sub-Antarctic Marion Island is one of the few islands where both species of Phoebetria albatrosses breed sympatrically. The last published assessment of their population trends, which reported counts up to 2008, concluded that the numbers of breeding pairs of sooty albatross P. fusca (Endangered) were decreasing, whereas numbers of light-mantled albatross P. palpebrata (Near Threatened) were increasing. Extending the counts to 2014 reversed these trends, with numbers of sooty albatrosses increasing from 2006 to 2014, and numbers of light-mantled albatrosses decreasing from 2007 to 2014. Confidence in island-wide counts is low due to the cryptic nature of the albatrosses on their largely inaccessible cliff-side nest sites, as well as counts for sooty albatrosses taking place late in the incubation period when 10?20% of nests have already failed. Given the greater conservation concern for the sooty albatross, we recommend that dedicated annual counts be conducted during the early incubation period, and be repeated shortly after the chicks hatch (late December), mid-way through the nestling period (late February) and prior to fledging (late April), to give a better idea of breeding success. Count zones also should be revised to facilitate more accurate counts, ensuring more reliable estimates of sooty albatross population trends at Marion Island.     

Oxygen fugacity control in piston-cylinder experiments: a re-evaluation

Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) investigated a double capsule assembly for use in piston-cylinder experiments that would allow hydrous, high-temperature, and high-pressure experiments to be conducted under controlled oxygen fugacity conditions. Using a platinum outer capsule containing a metal oxide oxygen buffer (Ni–NiO or Co–CoO) and H₂O, with an inner gold–palladium capsule containing hydrous melt, this study was able to compare the oxygen fugacity imposed by the outer capsule oxygen buffer with an oxygen fugacity estimated by the AuPdFe ternary system calibrated by Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010). H₂O loss or gain, as well as iron loss to the capsule walls and carbon contamination, is often observed in piston-cylinder experiments and often go unexplained. Only a few have attempted to actually quantify various aspects of these changes (Brooker et al. in Am Miner 83(9–10):985–994, 1998; Truckenbrodt and Johannes in Am Miner 84:1333–1335, 1999). It was one of the goals of Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) to address these issues by using and testing the AuPdFe solution model of Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010), as well as to constrain the oxygen fugacity of the inner capsule. The oxygen fugacities of the analyzed melts were assumed to be equal to those of the solid Ni–NiO and Co–CoO buffers, which is incorrect since the melts are all undersaturated in H₂O and the oxygen fugacities should therefore be lower than that of the buffer by 2 log $a_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}}$ .     

Empirical modelling of site-specific errors in continuous GPS data

Continuous global positioning system (GPS) stations propagate biases and spurious signals into the derived parameter time series when the measurements are subject to site-specific effects, such as multipath. This is a particular problem in the investigation of geophysical and atmospheric phenomena where signals may be small in magnitude. A methodology to remove these erroneous signals from long-term time series will significantly increase the usefulness of the derived time series. This work provides the theoretical basis for use of an empirical site model (ESM) derived from post-fit phase residuals to mitigate unmodelled site-specific errors. Additionally, we also investigate the effectiveness of applying an ESM to a regional GPS network and a short baseline solution. Under most observing scenarios, we show that the ESM approach is predicted to improve the precision and accuracy of the site coordinates. However, it is important to note that we found some scenarios where the ESM can introduce a bias. For instance, when the antenna is mounted close to the ground. In this scenario, for a short baseline, we observed the introduction of a 4-mm bias in height. Use of an ESM for the same short baseline with an uncalibrated radome substantially improves the results by removing a large bias of over 10 mm in height. Similarly, application of an ESM derived from historic data yields similar improvements. This demonstrates that the ESM can be a powerful tool when applied to appropriate site-specific configurations and could potentially be implemented in routine GPS analysis for a broad range of applications.     

Sulfur speciation in the upper Black Sea sediments

We report solid phase sulfur speciation of six cores from sediments underlying oxic, suboxic and anoxic-sulfidic waters of the Black Sea. Our dataset includes the five sulfur species [pyrite-sulfur, acid volatile sulfides (AVS), zerovalent sulfur (S(0)), organic polysulfides (RS_x), humic sulfur] together with reactive iron and manganese, as quantified by dithionite extraction, and total organic carbon. Pyrite – sulfur was the major phase in all cores [200-400 µmol (g dry wt)^- 1] except for the suboxic core. However, zerovalent sulfur and humic sulfur also reached very significant levels: up to about 109 and 80 µmol (g dry wt)^- 1, respectively. Humic sulfur enrichment was observed in the surface fluff layers of the eastern central basin sediments where Unit-1 type depositional conditions prevail. Elemental sulfur accumulated as a result of porewater sulfide oxidation by reactive iron oxides in turbidities from the anoxic basin margin and western central basin sediments. The accumulation of elemental sulfur to a level close to that of pyrite-S in any part of central Black Sea sediments has never been reported before and our finding indicates deep basin turbidites prevent the build-up of dissolved sulfide in the sediment. This process also contributes to diagenetic pyrite formation whereas in the non-turbiditic parts of the deep basin water column formed (syngenetic) pyrite dominates the sulfur inventory. In slope sediments under suboxic waters, organic sulfur (humic sulfur + organic polysulfides) account for 33-42% of total solid phase S, indicating that the suboxic conditions favor organosulfur formation. Our study shows that the interactions between depositional patterns (Unit 1 vs. turbidite), redox state of overlying waters (oxic-suboxic-sulfidic) and organic matter content determine sulfur speciation and enable the accumulation of elemental sulfur and organic sulfur species close to a level of pyrite-S.     

Designing science web sites

From a scientist’s viewpoint a web site is one tool used to conduct research. From an artist’s viewpoint web sites are a form of visual composition. From a developer’s point of view a web site is a type of application. While web sites are a relatively new medium with a particular set of constraints, they do adhere to the same basic design principles that apply to other art forms. These design principles are the basic assumptions that affect the arrangement of elements within a composition. A successful design uses the principles and elements to achieve a visual goal in the composition. A web site designed for scientists has unique properties which are not shared by many other types of web sites. These properties influence the overall visual design of the web sites. Recently at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA undertook a re-design of a number of its websites. In the effort, the use of visual design principles combined with the properties of a science web site were put to the test. In all, six different web sites were designed each with a difference science focus. We describe the process used to design the web sites which involve forming teams of designers, scientists and developers. We present example pages from each design and conclude with a discussion of what was learned during the process.     

Near real-time ocean circulation assimilation and prediction in the Intra-Americas Sea with ROMS

We present the feasibility of a prototype, near real-time assimilation and ensemble prediction system for the Intra-Americas Sea run autonomously aboard a ship of opportunity based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Predicting an ocean state depends upon numerical models that contain uncertainties in their modeled physics, initial conditions, and model state. An advanced model, four-dimensional variational assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques are used to account for each of these uncertainties. Every 3 days, data from the previous 7 days period were assimilated to generate an estimate of the circulation and to create an ensemble of 2 weeks forecasts of the ocean state. This paper presents the methods and results for a multi-resolution assimilation system and ensemble forecasts of surface fields and dominant surface circulation features. When compared to post-processed science quality observations, the state estimates suffer from our reliance on real-time, quick-look satellite observations of the ocean surface. Despite a number of issues, the ensemble forecast estimate is often superior to observational persistence. This proof-of-concept prototype performed well enough to reveal deficiencies, provide useful insights, valuable lessons, and guidance for future improvements in real-time ocean forecasting.     

High pressure crystallization of the Ewarara,Kalka and Gosse Pile intrusions,Giles Complex,central Australia

Evidence is presented for the primary high pressure crystallization of the Ewarara, Kalka and Gosse Pile layered intrusions which form part of the Giles Complex in central Australia. These pressures are estimated at 10 to 12 kb. The high pressure characteristics include subsolidus reactions between olivine and plagioclase, orthopyroxene and plagioclase, and orthopyroxene and spinel; spinel and rutile exsolution in both ortho- and clino-pyroxene; spinel exsolution in plagioclase; high Al₂O₃ and Cr₂O₃ contents of both ortho- and clinopyroxene; high Al^VI in clinopyroxene; dominance of orthopyroxene as an early crystallizing phase; high distribution coefficients for co-existing pyroxene pairs; and thin chilled margins. Such phenomena are rare in documented layered basic intrusions.     

Modelling snowpack bulk density using snow depth,cumulative degree-days,and climatological predictor variables

Snowpack water equivalent (SWE) is a key variable for water resource management in snow-dominated catchments. While it is not feasible to quantify SWE at the catchment scale using either field surveys or remotely sensed data, technologies such as airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) support the mapping of snow depth at scales relevant to operational water management. To convert snow depth to water equivalent, models have been developed to predict SWE or snowpack density based on snow depth and additional predictor variables. This study builds upon previous models that relate snowpack density to snow depth by including additional predictor variables to account for (1) long-term climatologies that describe the prevailing conditions influencing regional snowpack properties, and (2) the effect of intra- and inter-year variability in meteorological conditions on densification through a cumulative degree-day index derived from North American Regional Reanalysis products. A non-linear model was fit to 114 506 snow survey measurements spanning 41 years from 1166 snow courses across western North America. Under spatial cross-validation, the predicted densities had a root-mean-square error of 47.1 kg m⁻³, a mean bias of −0.039 kg m⁻³, and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70. The model developed in this study had similar overall performance compared to a similar regression-based model reported in the literature, but had reduced seasonal biases. When applied to predict SWE from simulated depths with random errors consistent with those obtained from LiDAR or Structure-from-Motion, 50% of the SWE estimates for April and May fell within −45 to 49 mm of the observed SWE, representing prediction errors of −15% to 20%.