Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Natural Hazards - In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the...     

Ambiguous Hydraulic Heads and 14C Activities in Transient Regional Flow

A regional flow and transport model is used to explore the implications of significant variability in Pleistocene and Holocene climates on hydraulic heads and ¹⁴C activity. Simulations involve a 39 km slice of the Death Valley Flow System through Yucca Mountain toward the Amargosa Desert. The long-time scale over which infiltration has changed (tens-of-thousands of years) is matched by the large physical extent of the flow system (many tens-of-kilometers). Estimated paleo-infiltration rates were estimated using a juniper pollen percentage that extends from the last interglacial (LIG) period (approximately 120 kyrbp) to present. Flow and ¹⁴C transport simulations show that groundwater flow changes markedly as a function of paleoclimate. At the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyrbp), the recharge to the flow system was about an order-of-magnitude higher than present, and water table was more than 100 m higher. With large basin time constants, flow is complicated because hydraulic heads at a given location reflect conditions of the past, but at another location the flow may reflect present conditions. This complexity is also manifested by processes that depend on flow, for example ¹⁴C transport. Without a model that accounts for the historical transients in recharge for at least the last 20,000 years, there is no simple way to deconvolve the ¹⁴C dates to explain patterns of flow.     

Assessment of prediction performances of stochastic models: Monthly groundwater level prediction in Southern Italy

Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills. In this paper, we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned. Based on the analysis of statistical indices, 8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy) have been selected as the highest quality measurements. Different SARIMA models, with different autoregressive, moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model, it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters, SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2) _(12), has a high R~2 value,larger than 92%, for each of the 8 selected stations. The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills, with an average NSE of about 96%. Therefore, this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area.     

Toxicity assessment of New Zealand and Pacific dinoflagellates Ostreopsis and Gambierdiscus (Dinophyceae) extracts using bioassays

The dinoflagellate genus Ostreopsis produces palytoxin-like compounds (PLTXs) and the genus Gambierdiscus produces ciguatoxins (CTXs) and maitotoxin (MTX). Human illness has been recorded following the consumption of CTX-contaminated finfish. Their effects on the flora and fauna in the environment are largely unexplored. Toxin profiles of extracts of Ostreopsis and Gambierdiscus isolates from the Pacific region were characterised using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Sea urchin (Evechinus chloriticus) fertilisation was unaffected by any algal extracts, but extracts containing maitotoxin-3 (MTX-3, but not MTX or CTXs), or with high concentrations of PLTXs, were toxic to urchin larval development. Gambierdiscus extracts containing CTXs elicited toxic responses in zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryo toxicity assays; extracts containing only MTX-3 elicited a limited response. Ostreopsis extracts containing PLTXs caused no response. The results demonstrate potential impacts of toxic dinoflagellates on larval organisms and the potential of embryonic assays as toxicity screening tools.