Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

Dives into outer Coronado Canyon System

Dives in Lockheed's submarine “Deep Quest” followed the floor of the fan valley and outer gorge of Coronado Canyon, southwest of the California—Baja California border. Both the fan valley and outer gorge have meandering courses. Basin depressions and intermittent steep descents characterize the outer gorge. No indications were found of recent activity of turbidity currents at either location, but a sand layer 30 cm below the surface is interpreted as related to a lower stand of sea level at the close of the last ice age. Abundant organisms were seen on the valley floor and in the overlying water.     

Hydrophysical state of the Large Aral Sea in the autumn of 2013: Thermal structure,currents, and internal waves

This paper is focused on the hydrophysical state of the western basin of the Large Aral Sea in its present conditions of ecological crisis. The investigation is based on the direct observations carried out during a field survey in the Aral Sea in October of 2013. The analysis of the distribution of the temperature values across the western basin is given. Time series of the water currents variability were recorded at four mooring stations. The pattern of the basin-scale circulation response to the wind forcing was described. Based on the in situ measurements of the time variability of the temperature fields, the principal characteristics of the internal waves were specified for the present-day Aral Sea for the first time.     

Observations of a cycle of intense coastal upwelling and downwelling at the research site of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology in the Black Sea

The paper presents the results of joint analysis of the response of vertical temperature and current velocity profile distributions in the coastal zone of the Gelendzhik region of the Black Sea to strong wind forcing in the third ten-day period of September 2013. This forcing was caused by the propagation of an atmospheric cyclone, which first initiated coastal upwelling that was later replaced by downwelling. We formulate a criterion for the development of full coastal upwelling and demonstrate its efficiency. We assume that frequent events of incomplete coastal upwelling and downwelling are associated with changes in the water dynamics (variations in the intensity and direction of the alongshore current) generally not related to local wind forcing.     

Enhanced geochemical gradients in a marine shallow-water hydrothermal system: Unusual arsenic speciation in horizontal and vertical pore water profiles

The shallow marine hydrothermal vents near Ambitle Island in eastern Papua New Guinea discharge hot, slightly acidic, As-rich, chemically reduced fluid into cool, slightly alkaline, oxygenated seawater. Gradients in temperature, pH, and total As (As^T), among others, are established as the two aqueous phases mix. The hydrothermal fluid contained 900 μg/L As^T, almost exclusively present as the reduced As^III, while local seawater measured between 1.2 and 2.4 μg/L As, with approximately equal levels of As^III and As^V. Of particular interest in this study was As speciation and abundance in pore waters as a function of sediment depth and as a function of distance from the area of focused venting. With increasing distance, As^T concentration in the pore water decreased rapidly, but remained elevated up to 300 m from the area of focused venting when compared to a non-hydrothermal control site. As a function of depth (to 100 cm) As^T concentration in the pore water profiles was elevated and generally increased with depth. Surprisingly, aqueous As^V far exceeded aqueous As^III at almost all distances and depths investigated, while at the control site the As^III concentration exceeded that of As^V. In the Tutum Bay hydrothermal system, chemical disequilibria among As species provide potential metabolic energy for arsenite oxidizing microorganisms where hydrothermal fluid mixes with seawater near the vent orifice, and for arsenate reducing microorganisms with increasing distance and depth from the hydrothermal point source.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Visual comparison of computer aided landsat map and air photo map : A case study from Karimnagar district Andhra Pradesh

The use of aerial photo-interpretation technique in preparing an applied hydromorphological map is discussed. The practical utility of the map for ground water exploration in granitic terrain is presented. An attempt to prepare a similar map using LANDSAT CCT by analysis through a Multispectral Data Analysis System and the relative merits of computer aided map and aerial photo map are discussed. The details available in aerial photo map have been found to be lacking in computer aided map. Visual interpretation of LANDSAT imagery can improve the computer aided classification results.     

Deterministic strong ground motion study for the Sitamarhi area near Bihar–Nepal region

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.     

Some properties of flows in unsaturated soils with an exponential dependence of the hydraulic conductivity upon the pressure head

A systematic development of the consequences of an exponential dependence of the hydraulic conductivity upon the pressure head is presented. Alternative expressions for the flux are discussed in detail. For steady flows, partial differential equations in terms of the matric flux potential, the pressure head, and the total head are derived. For steady, plane and axially symmetric flows, partial differential equations for the stream function are given. A theoretical basis for the construction of viscous flow analogs for steady, plane and axially symmetric flows is also presented.     

Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.