Century-Scale Change in Water Availability: CO2-Quadrupling Experiment

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ～ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.     

塔中地区油气运聚特征

塔中地区主要受塔中Ⅰ号、Ⅱ号及Ⅲ号三条大断层控制 ,形成巨型复式背斜 ,隆起高部位地层遭受了强烈的风化剥蚀。背斜之上 ,断裂和局部构造发育。可划分出两个主要成藏期 :第Ⅰ成藏期为寒武系—下奥陶统烃源岩成熟生烃运移期 ,生排烃高峰为志留纪 ;第Ⅱ成藏期为中—上奥陶统烃源岩在燕山期—喜马拉雅期成熟生烃运聚。第Ⅰ成藏期形成的油藏有两个特征 :在塔中Ⅰ号断裂带、北部斜坡带油气注入奥陶系及志留系圈闭中 ,形成原生油气藏 ;构造高部位 (如中央断垒带 )的油气藏在后期构造运动中遭受破坏。第Ⅱ成藏期形成的油藏可分为两类 :对早期油藏的再次充注 ;聚集形成新油藏。塔中地区的油气运移通道主要有断裂和不整合面 ,油气的分布也主要受断裂和不整合面所控制。塔中Ⅰ号构造带和北部斜坡带是较为有利的勘探区带     

岩层离距图法研究沉积岩断裂发育史——以松辽盆地敖古拉断裂为例

利用断裂活动过程中留下的各种地质标记研究断裂发育史是比较困难的 ,已有的研究方法主要可归纳出七种 ,都存在局限性。岩层离距图法是以地震剖面为基础 ,将穿过断裂的各剖面上的标志层投影到沿断裂走向的铅垂面上 ,得到多组标志层的垂向断距数据 ,然后用下部各标志层的断距减去最上部标志层的断距 ,并作多轮次计算 ,直到最后的断距差近似为零或仅剩一个非零标志层。每一轮次计算代表一个活动期次 ,如果出现负值 ,则表示有构造反转。对松辽盆地敖古拉断裂作了实例计算 ,结果为该断裂发育经历了三个正断活动期和一个逆断活动期 ,与盆地区域性活动有些差别。岩层离距图法比起其他已有方法 ,可靠程度大大提高     

多年冻土地区建筑物地基的热稳定性技术

Thermal stabilization of soils (including freezing of thawed soils and cooling of permafrost) is known to be the effective method providing stable support for buildings and structures in cold regions.Seasonal thermo-stabilizers (STS) are mainly used in construction. The predicted climate warming because of natural and man-caused factors determines wide application of STS in permafrost regions. A STS transfers heat from its underground part (evaporator) to the aerial part (condenser) owing to natural temperature difference between them during a cold season. We have been working out and manufacturing different types of two-phase, vapor-liquid STS. Aluminum alloys are used in our STS to prevent corrosion and to increase their efficiency. They are successfully used in the northern regions of Western Siberia, in particular, at the railway Obskaya Bovanenkovo. The paper presents some technical parameters of new STS, the results of their experimental study and computer simulation, as well as experience features.     

Assessment of predictions of the response of the Hualien containment model during forced vibration tests

Blind predictions for the response of the 1/4-scale reinforced concrete Hualien (Taiwan) containment model during forced vibration tests are compared with the observed data. The predictions obtained by the CLASSI approach reflect the experimental conditions prior to and after backfill of the soil surrounding the embedded foundation. The experimental data show a strong and unexpected coupling between the response in the NS and EW directions which is not present in the results for the axisymmetric theoretical models. Also, significant differences can be seen between the experimental responses in the two orthogonal horizontal directions which minimize cross-axis coupling. Although these differences are not accounted for in the theoretical models, the discrepancies between predictions and observations are within the uncertainty of the structural and geotechnical data. The obtained differences between predictions and observations give an excellent measure of the prediction error that can be expected in this type of analysis from uncertainty in the data. A detailed assessment of the initial structural and geotechnical data based on extensive comparisons with the results of previous identification studies is also presented. Finally, comparisons between the observed response and calculations based on revised models for the structure and the soil show that current methods of analysis can account accurately for the observed response.     

Steady, annual, and monthly recharge implied by deep unconfined aquifer flow

We consider the response of a deep unconfined horizontal aquifer to steady, annual, and monthly recharge. A groundwater divide and a zero head reservoir constrain the aquifer, so that sinusoidal monthly and aperiodic annual recharge fluctuations create transient specific discharge near the reservoir and an unsteady water table elevation inland. One existing and two new long-term data sets from the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate and confirm hydraulic properties in a set of analytical models. [Geohydrology and simulated groundwater flow, 1992] data and a new power law for tritiugenic helium to tritium ratios calibrate the steady recharge that drives the classical parabolic model of steady hydraulics [Applied Hydrogeology, 2001]. Observed water table and gradient fluctuations calibrate the transient recharge models. In the latter regard, monitoring wells within 1 km of Buttermilk Bay exhibit appreciable specific discharge and reduced water table fluctuations. We apply [Trans Am Geophys Union 32(1951)238] periodic model to the monthly hydraulics and a recharge convolution integral [J Hydrol 126(1991)315] to annual flow. An infiltration fraction of 0.79 and a consumptive use coefficient of 1.08×10⁻⁸ m/s °C relate recharge to precipitation and daylight weighted temperature across all three time scales. Errors associated with this recharge relation decrease with increasing time scale.     

Transport over a narrow shelf: Exuma Cays, Bahamas

Current meter and temperature data were collected over a 402-day period from an outer shelf and a tidal channel study site in the Exuma Cays, Bahamas. The shelf width is less than 2 km, and floods and ebbs through a nearby tidal channel extend across the entire shelf and reduce coherence of wind forcing and along-shelf flow. The data are used in perturbation analyses to investigate the across-shelf turbulent transport of heat and momentum over seasonal time scales. Data show a net landward transport of both heat and momentum over the course of the study, but the perturbation products contain distinct seasonal cycles. In fall and winter months, across-shelf heat and momentum fluxes are landward, while during spring and summer months fluxes are seaward. Comparison of shelf-water temperature with the temperature of bank water leaving on the ebb suggests that seasonal cycles of across-shelf heat and momentum in shelf waters are influenced by the seasonal export of relatively warm and cool water from Great Bahama Bank.Responsible Editor: Iris Grabemann     

PART II: Comparison of Theoretical and Experimental Estimations of Site Effects

— To check the reliability and the quality of the theoretically estimated ground responses obtained from the 2-D simulation by the application of the hybrid method in PART-I, we compare some of them with those obtained at the same sites from observed data using the Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR). The comparison validates our synthetic modeling and shows that in cases of complex geometries, the use of at least 2-D numerical simulations is required in order to reliably evaluate site effects and thus facilitate the microzonation of the city of Thessaloniki.     

Analysis of Chironomid Remains from Lake Sediments in Paleoecological Reconstruction

The results of methodological studies of paleoecological reconstruction of environmental characteristics are considered. The studies are based on the analysis of chironomid remains from the sediments of lake ecosystems. The investigation is focused on the methodical basis of analysis and the perspectives and range of its application to long-term environmental changes of natural and anthropogenic origin. It is shown that the development of this method in future studies will require a balanced combination of neo- and paleoecological approaches.     

Copper (II) Speciation in a Freshwater Ecosystem

Results of chemico-biological experiments in a natural water body with the use of model systems with Cu (II) introduced in them at different proportions of its chemical forms (natural and simulated) in the solution. The model forms used in the experiments were Cu complexes with benzyl- and hexadecylmalonic acids, simulating low-molecular dissolved organic substances. The experimental conditions were chosen based on a preliminary calculation using WATEQ–4f program. The complexes of Cu with hexadecylmalonic acid are found to be absorbed by suspensions and removed into bottom sediment more actively than other Cu forms. The toxicity of introduced Cu for the phyto- and zooplanktonic communities is found to depend on the concentration of Cu²⁺ aqua-ions in the solution, in the presence of which the higher concentrations of complexes with malonic acids do not exert their toxic effect.