On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

Argon retention properties of silicate glasses and implications for <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar age and noble gas diffusion studies

Sized aggregates of glasses (47–84 wt% SiO₂) were fused from igneous-derived cohesive fault rock and igneous rock, and step-heated from ~400 to >1,200 °C to obtain their ³⁹Ar diffusion properties (average E=33,400 cal mol^?1; D _o=4.63×10^?3 cm² s^?1). At T<~1,000 °C, glasses containing <~69 wt% SiO₂ and abundant network-forming cations (Ca, Fe, Mg) reveal moderate to strong non-linear increases in D and E, reflecting structural modifications as the solid transitions to melt. Extrapolation of these Arrhenius properties down to typical geologic T-t conditions could result in a 1.5 log₁₀ unit underestimation in the diffusion rate of Ar in similar materials. Numerical simulations based upon the diffusion results caution that some common geologic glasses will likely yield ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling ages rather than formation ages. However, if cooling rates are sufficiently high, ambient temperatures are sufficiently low (e.g., <65–175 °C), and coarse particles (e.g., radius (r) >~1 mm) are analyzed, glasses with compositions similar to ours may preserve their formation ages.     

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).     

Petrology of pumices of April 1993 eruption of Lascar (Atacama, Chile)

Lascar Volcano (Atacama, Chile) erupted on 18–20 April 1993. Several sub-Plinian explosions occurred, and some were mushroom-shaped. The highest column rose up to 23 km. Ash clouds crossed South America eastwards. Dacite pumice falls made of blocks and ashes were deposited on the flanks of the volcano as a result of collapsed columns. The pumice contains phenocrysts of plagioclase, enstatite, augite, biotite, magnetite and ilmenite and small crystals of apatite. The 1992 previous andesite dome inside the crater was destroyed. Banded blocks resulting from mingling of the dacitic pumice and andesite from the dome are found in the pumice flow. Both the lava dome and the pumice are representative of the Lascar high-K magma unit. Dacitic pumice is a product of crystal fractionation of the andesitic magma.     

Modal pushover‐based scaling of earthquake records for nonlinear analysis of single‐story unsymmetric‐plan buildings

The modal pushover‐based scaling (MPS) procedure, currently restricted to symmetric‐plan buildings, is extended herein to unsymmetric‐plan buildings. The accuracy of the extended MPS procedure was evaluated for a large set of three‐degree‐of‐freedom unsymmetric‐plan structures with variable stiffness and strength. The structures were subjected to nonlinear response history analysis considering sets of seven records scaled according to the MPS procedure. Structural responses were compared against the benchmark values, defined as the median values of the engineering demand parameters due to 30 unscaled records. This evaluation of the MPS procedure has led to the following conclusions: (i) the MPS procedure provided accurate estimates of median engineering demand parameter values and reduced record‐to‐record variability of the responses; and (2) the MPS procedure is found to be much superior compared to the ASCE/SEI 7‐10 scaling procedure for three‐dimensional analysis of unsymmetric‐plan buildings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Southwest Atlantic intertidal burrowing crab Neohelice granulata modifies nutrient loads of phreatic waters entering coastal area

Along the coastal areas of the Southwest Atlantic estuaries and embayments, phreatic water often circulates through very extended areas (up to several hundred meters perpendicular to the coast), dominated by dense assemblages of deep burrows of the crab Neohelice granulata (formerly Chasmagnathus granulatus). This crab inhabits the intertidal area, from mudflats to marshes vegetated by species of Spartina, Sarcocornia and Juncus, generating extensive burrowing beds where burrow density may reach up to 60 burrows m⁻². Since the lower limit of the crab burrows is usually the water table, we investigated through field experiments the effect of N. granulata and their burrows on the chemical characteristics of this phreatic water. Water analysis from experimental (1) occupied burrows (with crabs), (2) unoccupied burrows (where crabs were excluded), and (3) sediment pore water show remarkable differences. Water oxygenation, and nitrate, ammonium and sulphate concentrations inside occupied burrows were higher than in the water inside unoccupied burrows or pore waters. Moreover, directed sampling of phreatic water entering and leaving the crab bed, shows that dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration is enhanced as the water crosses the crab bed. These results may be ascribed to the fact that in the salt marsh the crabs spend most of their time within burrows, where presumably they store food (plants) and defecate. These activities generate an area of accumulation of excrements and nutrients in different decomposition states. The present work shows a novel way by which bioturbating organisms can affect nutrients exportation from salt marshes to the open waters.     

Predicting seasonal ocean variability around New Zealand using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

We present a first assessment of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and 300m Heat Content (HC) ensemble mean skill of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Seasonal v1.0 (ACCESS-S1) around New Zealand on seasonal timescales, using a set of retrospective ensemble forecasts for 1990-2012. This was verified against Reynolds AVHRR analysis and Bluelink ReANalysis 3.5 (BRAN3.5). For inshore areas with depth <300m, the model shows skill forecasting for summer at a lead time of 0 months, with 66% and 65% of model grid cells having correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 for SST and 300m HC respectively. Regions of lower skill seem to be associated with the model representation of the complex and variable frontal systems around New Zealand, and an overly-strong response to the El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO). Nevertheless, the skill of ACCESS-S1 around New Zealand suggests there is potential for the development of useful seasonal forecast products for the region.     

The Intertidal Burrowing Crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neohelice</Emphasis> (=<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chasmagnathus</Emphasis>) <Emphasis Type="Italic">granulata</Emphasis> Positively Affects Foraging of Rodents in South Western Atlantic Salt Marshes

The role of positive and indirect interactions is often crucial in communities with intense abiotic stress such as salt marshes. The burrowing crab, Neohelice (=Chasmagnathus) granulata, is the dominant benthic macroinvertebrate of southwest Atlantic marshes (southern Brazil to Northern Argentinean Patagonia), having strong direct and indirect effects on marsh soil and, in consequence, on marsh vegetation and primary consumers. In this work, we investigate if this crab indirectly modifies habitat use by the granivorous rodents, Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens, by increasing nutrient availability and thus enhancing seed production by the marsh plant Spartina densiflora. The study was conducted at the Mar Chiquita Coastal Lagoon, Argentina (37°32′ S). Rodent frequencies in S. densiflora were positively correlated with crab densities throughout the low and middle marsh. Additionally, the highest quality of S. densiflora and inflorescence density was recorded at the highest crab densities. Experimental manipulation of crab densities shows that N. granulata indirectly enhances the performance of S. densiflora (e.g., decreased fiber content and C/N ratios) and increases density of seeds. Moreover, N. granulata also facilitates S. densiflora seed availability to rodents by concentrating them in sediment mound at their burrows entrances. Experimental rodent exclusions showed that rodent species used S. densiflora seeds, a variable positively related to crab burrow density. Thus, our results show that N. granulata drives the granivorous rodent distribution and the intensity of seeds–rodent interaction trough facilitative and indirect interactions in marsh community.