A Europe–South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies

The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European–South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e.g. agriculture, health, hydro-electricity). Building the CLARIS network required fulfilling the following three objectives: (1) The first objective of CLARIS was to set up and favour the technical transfer and expertise in earth system and regional climate modelling between Europe and South America together with the providing of a list of climate data (observed and simulated) required for model validations; (2) The second objective of CLARIS was to facilitate the exchange of observed and simulated climate data between the climate research groups and to create a South American high-quality climate database for studies in extreme events and long-term climate trends; (3) Finally, the third objective of CLARIS was to strengthen the communication between climate researchers and stakeholders, and to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate information in the decision-making process.     

MODIS-NDVI-based mapping of the length of the growing season in northern Fennoscandia

Northern Fennoscandia is an ecologically heterogeneous region in the arctic/alpine-boreal transition area. Phenology data on birch from 13 stations and 16-day MODIS-NDVI composite satellite data with 250 m resolution for the period 2000 to 2006 were used to map the growing season. A new combined pixel-specific NDVI threshold and decision rule-based mapping method was developed to determine the onset and end of the growing season. A moderately high correlation was found between NDVI data and birch phenology data. The earliest onset of the growing season is found in the narrow strip of lowland between the mountains and the sea along the coast of northern Norway. The onset follows a clear gradient from lowland to mountain corresponding to the decreasing temperature gradient. In autumn, the yellowing of the vegetation shows a more heterogeneous pattern. The length of the growing season is between 100 and 130 days in 55% of the study area.     

Identifying Critical Locations in a Spatial Network with Graph Theory

Effective management of infrastructural networks in the case of a crisis requires a prior analysis of the vulnerability of spatial networks and identification of critical locations where an interdiction would cause damage and disruption. This article presents a mathematical method for modelling the vulnerability risk of network elements which can be used for identification of critical locations in a spatial network. The method combines dual graph modelling with connectivity analysis and topological measures and has been tested on the street network of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area in Finland. Based on the results of this test the vulnerability risk of the network elements was experimentally defined. Further developments are currently under consideration for eventually developing a risk model not only for one but for a group of co‐located spatial networks.     

Spatiotemporal multiscale diagnosis model to proactively respond to the multi-country monkeypox virus outbreak in 2022

This research analyzes the spatiotemporal trend of 23,121 monkeypox virus cases in the multi-country outbreak that affected 82 countries from January 2022 to July 2022. The spatiotemporal trends analysis is developed using open data and GIS to model 3D bins and emerging hot spots globally (data by country) and nationally (data by region) for hardest hit countries, like the USA and Spain. The implemented methodology distinguishes between problem areas —as significant hot spots— and countries with no pattern. Results show consecutive hot spot patterns in Western Europe and high location quotients in North America. Factually, the countries with consecutive patterns record 16,494 cases, that is, 71.34% of the cases, where 7.63% of the world population live. At the national level, in the analysis of the USA and Spain, the results reveal regional differences with significative hot spots in California and on the East Coast of the USA and the Mediterranean coast of Spain. The proposed methodology facilitates the monitoring of the spatiotemporal evolution of monkeypox cases and is scalable and replicable using non-arbitrary and statistical parameters. The findings indicate problematic zones in real-time, enabling policymakers to develop focused interventions and proactive strategies to mitigate the future risk of monkeypox.     

Origins of Rolling, Twisting, and Non-radial Propagation of Eruptive Solar Events

We demonstrate that major asymmetries in erupting filaments and CMEs, namely major twists and non-radial motions are typically related to the larger-scale ambient environment around eruptive events. Our analysis of prominence eruptions observed by the STEREO, SDO, and SOHO spacecraft shows that prominence spines retain, during the initial phases, the thin ribbon-like topology they had prior to the eruption. This topology allows bending, rolling, and twisting during the early phase of the eruption, but not before. The combined ascent and initial bending of the filament ribbon is non-radial in the same general direction as for the enveloping CME. However, the non-radial motion of the filament is greater than that of the CME. In considering the global magnetic environment around CMEs, as approximated by the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model, we find that the non-radial propagation of both erupting filaments and associated CMEs is correlated with the presence of nearby coronal holes, which deflect the erupting plasma and embedded fields. In addition, CME and filament motions, respectively, are guided towards weaker field regions, namely null points existing at different heights in the overlying configuration. Due to the presence of the coronal hole, the large-scale forces acting on the CME may be asymmetric. We find that the CME propagates usually non-radially in the direction of least resistance, which is always away from the coronal hole. We demonstrate these results using both low- and high-latitude examples.     

Debris flow hazards for mountain regions of Russia: regional features and key events

The total area of debris flow territories of the Russian Federation accounts for about 10% of the area of the country. The highest debris flow activity areas located in Kamchatka-Kuril, North Caucasus and Baikal debris flow provinces. The largest debris flow events connected with volcano eruptions. Maximum volume of debris flow deposits per one event reached 500 × 10⁶ m³ (lahar formed during the eruption of Bezymyanny volcano in Kamchatka in 1956). In the mountains of the Greater Caucasus, the maximum volume of transported debris material reached 3 × 10⁶ m³; the largest debris flows here had glacial reasons. In the Baikal debris flow province, the highest debris flow activity located in the ridges of the Baikal rift zone (the East Sayan Mountains, the Khamar-Daban Ridge and the ridges of the Stanovoye Highland). Spatial features of debris flow processes within the territory of Russia are analyzed, and the map of Debris Flow Hazard in Russia is presented. We classified the debris flow hazard areas into 2 zones, 6 regions and 15 provinces. Warm and cold zones are distinguished. The warm zone covers mountainous areas within the southern part of Russia with temperate climate; rain-induced debris flows are predominant there. The cold zone includes mountainous areas with subarctic and arctic climate; they are characterized by a short warm period, the occurrence of permafrost, as well as the predominance of slush flows. Debris flow events are described for each province. We collected a list of remarkable debris flow events with some parameters of their magnitude and impact. Due to climate change, the characteristics of debris flows will change in the future. Availability of maps and information from previous events will allow to analyze the new cases of debris flows.     

The Fifth Edition of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars:experiences in the constellation Centaurus

We have recently announced that the General Catalogue of Variable Stars enters the stage of its fifth, purely electronic edition(GCVS 5.1). We have included 1408 variable stars in the constellation Centaurus in this new version, GCVS 5.1. Working on this revision, we applied current possibilities from data mining, suggested new variability types for many variable stars and found new light elements for a large number of periodic variables. This paper describes the work completed during the preparation of GCVS 5.1 for Centaurus and discusses in detail a number of the most astrophysically significant cases.     

Mapping groundwater‐dependent ecosystems using remote sensing measures of vegetation and moisture dynamics

Protection of groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is an important criterion in sustainable groundwater management, particularly when human water consumption is in competition with environmental water demands; however, the delineation of GDEs is commonly a challenging task. The Groundwater‐dependent Ecosystem Mapping (GEM) method proposed here is based on interpretation of the land surface response to the drying process derived from combined changes in two multispectral indices, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index and the Normalised Difference Wetness Index, both derived from Landsat imagery. The GEM method predicts three land cover classes used for delineation of potential GDEs: vegetation with permanent access to groundwater; vegetation with diminishing access to groundwater; and water bodies that can persist through a prolonged dry period. The method was applied to a study site in the Ellen Brook region of Western Australia, where a number of GDEs associated with localised groundwater, diffuse discharge zones, and riparian vegetation were known. The estimated accuracy of the method indicated a good agreement between the predicted and known GDEs; Producer's accuracy was calculated as up to 91% for some areas. The method is most applicable for mapping GDEs in regions with a distinct drying period. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cruziana semiplicata from the Furongian (Late Cambrian) of Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago,Arctic Russia,with a review of the spatial and temporal distribution of this ichnospecies

The Furongian (Late Cambrian) Kurchavinskaya Formation of October Revolution Island, Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago, Arctic Russia , contains two distinctive morphotypes of the trace fossil Cruziana, both of which we assign to Cruziana semiplicata. A wider form shows characteristics typical of this ichnospecies with inner and outer lobes and marginal ridges. A narrow form has only an inner lobe with siculate, often interfering scratch‐marks, and rare, narrow marginal ridges. This narrow form, which shows characters in common with Cruziana tortworthi, probably represents burrowing in a strongly head‐down orientation. The record from October Revolution Island provides additional evidence that the palaeogeographical distribution of Cruziana semiplicata is not restricted to Gondwana, but also extend to parts of Baltica and North Kara. Cruziana semiplicata is known from the Furongian and Tremadocian of Gondwana, whereas on Baltica it is known only from the Furongian. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-monotone spectral projected gradient method applied to full waveform inversion

The seismic inversion problem is a highly non‐linear problem that can be reduced to the minimization of the least‐squares criterion between the observed and the modelled data. It has been solved using different classical optimization strategies that require a monotone descent of the objective function. We propose solving the full‐waveform inversion problem using the non‐monotone spectral projected gradient method: a low‐cost and low‐storage optimization technique that maintains the velocity values in a feasible convex region by frequently projecting them on this convex set. The new methodology uses the gradient direction with a particular spectral step length that allows the objective function to increase at some iterations, guarantees convergence to a stationary point starting from any initial iterate, and greatly speeds up the convergence of gradient methods. We combine the new optimization scheme as a solver of the full‐waveform inversion with a multiscale approach and apply it to a modified version of the Marmousi data set. The results of this application show that the proposed method performs better than the classical gradient method by reducing the number of function evaluations and the residual values.