Water exchange of the Stockholm archipelago—a cascade framework modelling approach

The Stockholm archipelago spans roughly a semicircular area with a radius of approximately 60 km, traditionally partitioned into three parts: the inner, the middle and the outer archipelago. This subdivision coincides with differing water exchange regimes. The inner and middle archipelagos are characterised by comparatively larger basins which are interconnected by a limited number of straits. This configuration is well suited for a discrete basin (DB-) model approach by partitioning the area into a set of sub-basins that are only resolved vertically. The advantage of this approach over 3D-models is the possibility for enhanced vertical resolution and improved strait exchange formulation, outweighing the disadvantage of neglected horizontal gradients within the basins. In the inner archipelago the dominating exchange process is estuarine circulation, induced by the marked freshwater discharge and the vertical mixing. In the outer and middle archipelagos the density fluctuations due to Ekman pumping along the Baltic boundary interface produce another type of baroclinic process that clearly dominates. Measurements to adequately resolve these density variations do not exist. Missing forcing data are provided by linking the middle archipelago's boundary straits to a 3D-model of the Baltic with a grid resolution of 0.5 nautical miles (n.m.). This fine resolution model (FR-domain) is in turn driven by the atmospheric forcing and the density variation at the rectangular boundary of the FR-domain which acceptably resolves both the interfacial straits and the outer archipelago's complex hypsography. Massive computing resources would be demanded if the FR-domain were extended to comprise the entire Baltic. The FR-domain is thus interfaced with an existing coarse resolution model of the entire Baltic (CR-domain) with a grid size of 5 n.m., the open boundary of which is located in the Kattegat. This 3-fold model set-up has been run for one whole year (1992) with a one-year spin-up time to make up for the lack of initial data. The model concept is at this stage to be regarded as a framework for further development in anticipation of improved formulations, particularly for the strait exchange formulation. Therefore only primary validation experiments and a few sensitivity analyses have been performed.     

Slip Sequences in Laboratory Experiments Resulting from Inhomogeneous Shear as Analogs of Earthquakes Associated with a Fault Edge

Faults are intrinsically heterogeneous with common occurrences of jogs, edges and steps. We therefore explore experimentally and theoretically how fault edges may affect earthquake and slip dynamics. In the presented experiments and accompanying theoretical model, shear loads are applied to the edge of one of two flat blocks in frictional contact that form a fault analog. We show that slip occurs via a sequence of rapid rupture events that initiate from the loading edge and are arrested after propagating a finite distance. Each successive event extends the slip size, transfers the applied shear across the block, and causes progressively larger changes of the contact area along the contact surface. Resulting from this sequence of events, a hard asperity is dynamically formed near the loaded edge. The contact area beyond this asperity is largely reduced. These sequences of rapid events culminate in slow slip events that precede a major, unarrested slip event along the entire contact surface. We suggest that the 1998 M5.0 Sendai and 1995 off-Etorofu earthquake sequences may correspond to this scenario. Our work demonstrates, qualitatively, how the simplest deviation from uniform shear loading may significantly affect both earthquake nucleation processes and how fault complexity develops.     

Permeability and degassing of dome lavas undergoing rapid decompression: An experimental determination

The gas permeability of volcanic rocks may influence various eruptive processes. The transition from a quiescent degassing dome to rock failure (fragmentation) may, for example, be controlled by the rocks permeability, in as much as it affects the speed by which a gas overpressure in vesicles is reduced in response to decompression. Using a modified shock-tube-based fragmentation bomb (Alidibirov and Dingwell 1996a,b; Spieler et al. 2003a), we have measured unsteady-state permeability at a high initial pressure differential. Following sudden decompression above the rock cylinder, pressurized gas flows through the sample. Two pressure transducers record the pressure signals above and below the sample. A transient 1D filtration code has been developed to calculate permeability using the experimental decay curve of the lower pressure transducer. Additionally an analytical steady-state method to achieve permeability is presented as an alternative to swiftly predict the sample permeability in a sufficiently precise manner. Over 100 permeability measurements have been performed on samples covering a wide range of porosity. The results show a general positive relationship between porosity and permeability with a high data scatter. Our preferred interpretation of the results is a combination of two different, but overlapping effects. We propose that at low porosities, gas escape occurs predominantly through microcracks or elongated micropores and therefore could be described by simplified forms of Kozeny–Carman relations (Carman 1956) and fracture flow models. At higher porosities, the influence of vesicles becomes progressively stronger as they form an increasingly connected network. Therefore, a model based on the percolation theory of fully penetrable spheres is used, as a first approximation, to describe the permeability-porosity trend. In the data acquired to date it is evident, that in addition to the porosity control, the samples bubble size, shape and distribution strongly influence the permeability. This leads to a range of permeability values up to 2.5 orders of magnitude at a given porosity.     

Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming

Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin, V.V., 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors, Annals of the Hydrological Institute, vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp. 56–63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold, L.B., Wolman, M.G., 1957. River channel pattern: braided, meandering and straight, Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252, pp. 85–98.] are conventional QS-type models, which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg, J.H., 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12, 259–270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material.We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modern and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%, 15%, 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg's model predicted potential transformation of the channel types, from single- to multi-thread, at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades, and at 5 locations by the middle of the 21st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only.Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes.     

The North Taymyr ice-marginal zone, Arctic Siberia—a preliminary overview and dating

The North Taymyr ice-marginal zone (NTZ) is a complex of glacial, glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine deposits, laid down on the northwestern Taymyr Peninsula in northernmost Siberia, along the front of ice sheets primarily originating on the Kara Sea shelf. It was originally recognised from satellite radar images by Russian scientists; however, before the present study, it had not been investigated in any detail. The ice sheets have mainly inundated Taymyr from the northwest, and the NTZ can be followed for 700–750 km between 75°N and 77°N, mostly 80–100 km inland from the present Kara Sea coast.The ice-marginal zone is best developed in its central parts, ca. 100 km on each side of the Lower Taymyr River, and has there been studied by us in four areas. In two of these, the ice sheet ended on land, whereas in the two others, it mainly terminated into ice-dammed lakes. The base of the NTZ is a series of up to 100-m-high and 2-km-wide ridges, usually consisting of redeposited marine silts. These ridges are still to a large extent ice-cored; however, the present active layer rarely penetrates to the ice surface. Upon these main ridges, smaller ridges of till and glaciofluvial material are superimposed. Related to these are deltas corresponding to two generations of ice-dammed lakes, with shore levels at 120–140 m and ca. 80 m a.s.l. These glacial lakes drained southwards, opposite to the present-day pattern, via the Taymyr River valley into the Taymyr Lake basin and, from there, most probably westwards to the southern Kara Sea shelf.The basal parts of the NTZ have not been dated; however, OSL dates of glaciolacustrine deltas indicate an Early–Middle Weichselian age for at least the superimposed ridges. The youngest parts of the NTZ are derived from a thin ice sheet (less than 300 m thick near the present coast) inundating the lowlands adjacent to the lower reaches of the Taymyr River. The glacial ice from this youngest advance is buried under only ca. 0.5 m of melt-out till and is exposed by hundreds of shallow slides. This final glaciation is predated by glacially redeposited marine shells aged ca. 20,000 BP (¹⁴C) and postdated by terrestrial plant material from ca. 11,775 and 9500 BP (¹⁴C)–giving it a last global glacial maximum (LGM; Late Weichselian) age.     

Changing seas in the Early–Middle Miocene of Central Europe: a Mediterranean approach to Paratethyan stratigraphy

The Miocene palaeogeographic evolution of the Paratethys Sea is still poorly constrained. Here, we use modern Mediterranean biochronology to provide an up‐to‐date overview of changing seas in Central Europe. Instead of a Paratethys that waxed and waned with fluctuating global sea levels, we show that the development of different seas was mainly controlled by tectonic phases. The Early Miocene “Ottnangian Sea” (~18 Ma) was connected to the Mediterranean via the Rhône valley, while the “Karpatian Sea” (~16.5 Ma) was initiated by a tectonically induced marine transgression through the Trans‐Tethyan gateway. In most Central European basins, the establishment of the “Badenian Sea” (<15.2 Ma), triggered by subduction‐related processes in the Pannonian and Carpathian domain, is significantly younger (by ~1 Myr) than usually estimated. The updated palaeogeographic reconstructions provide a better understanding of the concepts of basin dynamics, land–sea distribution and palaeoenvironmental change in the Miocene of Central Europe.     

Petroleum potential of Baikal deposits

We analyzed oils, gases, and bitumens of bottom sediments from natural shows on the southeastern shore of Lake Baikal, in the mouth of the Stvolovaya River near Capes Tolstyi and Gorevoi Utes. Based on a set of geological data, we have established that: (1) the lake oils underwent biodegradation to a variable degree: “Fresh” nondegraded paraffin oil floats up near Cape Gorevoi Utes; in the mouth of the Stvolovaya River and near Cape Tolstyi, aromatic-naphthene oil lacks n-alkanes, monomethyl alkanes, and acyclic isoprenoids; (2) Cenozoic oil originated from the organic matter of fresh-water basins with significant amounts of higher land plant remains, including angiosperm plants (oleanane), which suggests the lake or delta genesis of oil source formations of Cretaceous and younger ages. Judging from the carbon isotope composition (average δ¹³C = −43.84‰), methane from the bottom sediments near Cape Gorevoi Utes is catagenetic. The initial in-place resources in the Baikal sedimentary basins are estimated by the volumetric-statistical method at 500 mln tons of equivalent hydrocarbons.     

Evolution of the Academician Ridge Accommodation Zone in the central part of the Baikal Rift, from high-resolution reflection seismic profiling and geological field investigations

 New high-resolution seismic reflection data from the central part of Lake Baikal provide new insight into the structure and stratigraphy of Academician Ridge, a large intra-rift accommodation zone separating the Central and North Baikal basins. Four seismic packages are distinguished above the basement: a thin top-of-basement unit; seismic-stratigraphic unit X; seismic-stratigraphic unit A; and seismic-stratigraphic unit B. Units A and B were cored on selected key locations. The four packages are correlated with a series of deposits exposed on the nearby western shores: the Ularyar Sequence (Oligocene); the Tagay Sequence (Lower to Middle Miocene); the Sasa Sequence (Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene); the Kharantsy Sequence (Upper Pliocene); and the Nyurga Sequence (Lower Pleistocene). Based on stratal relationships, sedimentary geometries, distribution patterns and principal morphostructural elements – both onshore and offshore – we propose a new palaeogeographic evolution model for the area. In this model progressive tectonic subsidence of the Baikal basins and successive pulses of uplift of various segments of the rift margins lead to: (a) formation of the ridge as a structural and morphological feature separating the Central and North Baikal basins during the Middle to Late Miocene; (b) gradual flooding of the main parts of the ridge and establishment of a lacustrine connection between the two rift basins during the Late Miocene; and (c) total submergence of the top parts of the crest of the ridge during the latest Pleistocene. This new model helps to better constrain numerous phases in the structural evolution of the Baikal Rift, in which the Academician Ridge as an accommodation zone plays a crucial role. Received: 26 November 1999 / Accepted: 12 March 2000     

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.