Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle,a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one.The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law,if the maximum height of the current cycle is known.The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cycle's maximum height and,as a consequence,the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated.In turn,the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch(the Waldmeier rule)allows the epoch of the maximum,Tmax,to be estimated,if the date of the minimum is known.Moreover,using the law discovered,one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted,and hence,obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle.The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this technique to be 86%.The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data.The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20,the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr,the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.     

中国东北与俄罗斯远东富CO_2矿泉水化学对比

中国东北与俄罗斯远东富CO2矿泉是宝贵的饮用、医用矿水资源。五大连池、长白山天池、俄罗斯远东Primorye地区各泉水水化学特征对比显示,中国东北五大连池与俄罗斯远东Primorye地区出露泉水为低温、微酸、HCO3型、富含Si、Fe、Sr和CO2气体的综合优质饮用矿泉水;长白山天池出露泉水为高温、中性-微碱、HCO3型、富含Si和CO2气体的优质热矿泉水。五大连池和俄罗斯远东富CO2冷矿泉与长白山天池富CO2热矿泉具有相似而不同的形成过程,CO2气体对水化学的形成起了决定性的作用,广泛发育的花岗岩提供了富CO2热泉的物质来源,断层破碎带增加了CO2气体-地下水-花岗岩之间的反应程度,温度仅对可溶性Si有影响。     

CO2 threshold for millennial-scale oscillations in the climate system: implications for global warming scenarios

We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different responses: for CO₂ concentrations of 400 ppm or lower, the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO₂ concentrations of 440 ppm or higher, the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures, degassing of CO₂ and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the flush, the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO₂ is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The existence of a threshold in CO₂ concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing. If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system, the consequences would comprise a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm, an increase in global surface temperature of the order of 1–2°C, local temperature changes of the order of 6°C and a profound change in ocean stratification, deep water temperature and sea ice cover.     

The impact environment of the Hadean Earth

Impact bombardment in the first billion years of solar system history determined in large part the initial physical and chemical states of the inner planets and their potential to host biospheres. The range of physical states and thermal consequences of the impact epoch, however, are not well quantified. Here, we assess these effects on the young Earth's crust as well as the likelihood that a record of such effects could be preserved in the oldest terrestrial minerals and rocks. We place special emphasis on modeling the thermal effects of the late heavy bombardment (LHB) – a putative spike in the number of impacts at about 3.9 Gyr ago – using several different numerical modeling and analytical techniques. A comprehensive array of impact-produced heat sources was evaluated which includes shock heating, impact melt generation, uplift, and ejecta heating. Results indicate that ∼1.5–2.5 vol.% of the upper 20 km of Earth's crust was melted in the LHB, with only ∼0.3–1.5 vol.% in a molten state at any given time. The model predicts that approximately 5–10% of the planet's surface area was covered by >1 km deep impact melt sheets. A global average of ∼600–800 m of ejecta and ∼800–1000 m of condensed rock vapor is predicted to have been deposited in the LHB, with most of the condensed rock vapor produced by the largest (>100-km) projectiles. To explore for a record of such catastrophic events, we created two- and three-dimensional models of post-impact cooling of ejecta and craters, coupled to diffusion models of radiogenic Pb*-loss in zircons. We used this to estimate what the cumulative effects of putative LHB-induced age resetting would be of Hadean zircons on a global scale. Zircons entrained in ejecta are projected to have the following average global distribution after the end of the LHB: ∼59% with no impact-induced Pb*-loss, ∼26% with partial Pb*-loss and ∼15% with complete Pb*-loss or destruction of the grain. In addition to the relatively high erodibility of ejecta, our results show that if discordant ca. 3.9 Gyr old zones in the Jack Hills zircons are a signature of the LHB, they were most likely sourced from impact ejecta.     

Passive oil collection device

A novel, efficient, economical oil collection device, which recovers oils from surface waters using physical principles has been demonstrated. This method has never been used in oil skimmers. The device contains a water-filled vessel open at one end that is positioned above the spilled oil so that the oil entrance opening is leveled with the oil layer on the water surface. The oil moves upward into the vessel displacing the water due to the lower density of the oil. The device has no moving parts. Torricelli’s discovery and Pascal’s law govern containment of the liquid in the vessel above the water level, while Archimedes’ buoyancy force moves oil in the vessel. A collection of thick and thin oil layers on calm water has been shown. This device is very durable, environmentally friendly, recovers pure oil, emits no noise, no pollution, and capable of producing a broad economic impact in the oil clean-up industry by protecting health, life, and the environment.     

Thermal relaxation in young neutron stars

The internal properties of the neutron star crust can be probed by observing the epoch of thermal relaxation. After the supernova explosion, powerful neutrino emission quickly cools the stellar core, while the crust stays hot. The cooling wave then propagates through the crust, as a result of its finite thermal conductivity. When the cooling wave reaches the surface (age 10–100 yr) , the effective temperature drops sharply from 250 eV to 30 or 100 eV, depending on the cooling model. The crust relaxation time is sensitive to the (poorly known) microscopic properties of matter of subnuclear density, such as the heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and superfluidity of free neutrons. We calculate the cooling models with the new values of the electron thermal conductivity in the inner crust, based on a realistic treatment of the shapes of atomic nuclei. Superfluid effects may shorten the relaxation time by a factor of 4. The comparison of theoretical cooling curves with observations provides a potentially powerful method of studying the properties of the neutron superfluid and highly unusual atomic nuclei in the inner crust.     

Unresolved Binaries and the Initial Mass Function

In the area of binary stars the important contribution of GAIA will be towards statistical studies of the binary star distribution functions. On the other hand, from the GAIA observations, more than 10 000 masses accurate to 1% can be expected. This improves accuracy of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) still poorly known, particularly for the low-mass stars. A goal of the present study is to simulate a solar vicinity model with 100% binaries for predicting observational distributions. Under the assumption that star formation rate is constant, a random pairing of objects drawn from a pre-assumed single star power-law IMF is generated. Stellar evolution and selection effects are taken into account. Orbital parameters are assumed to be spread according to the common distributions. It is shown that under given assumptions the power-law IMF does lead to quasi-lognormal turnovers for the resulting observational mass function. The described model can be used to estimate, under reasonable assumptions on the IMF shape, the number of binaries of the different types that can be observed with GAIA. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Deformation events in the Gridino zone,Belomorian Province,Fennoscandian Shield: relationships between mafic dike swarms and eclogite-bearing mélange

Relationships between reference mafic dikes and deformations in the Gridino zone, Belomorian province, Fennoscandian Shield, make it possible to subdivide the deformations into three groups: pre-dike, synmagmatic, and post-dike. The Neoarchaean eclogite-bearing mélange was formed by disintegration of large eclogite slices in the course of ductile flow, which was associated with synkinematic granitoid magmatism and metamorphism varying from the granulite to amphibolite facies. Exotic blocks, including those of eclogites, are distributed in the TTG gneisses as layers and lenses, whose thicknesses range from a few to a few hundred metres and which are conformable with the foliation. Ductile flow brought the rock complexes to the depth level where brittle–ductile deformations were possible. As a result, certain parts of the mélange were deformed in a more rigid setting. A number of mafic dike swarms were emplaced into relatively cold rocks in an extensional environment in the earliest Palaeoproterozoic. The dikes cut across all earlier structures and are thus an important benchmark for distinguishing Neoarchaean and Palaeoproterozoic processes. Post-dike (~1.9 Ga) tectonic activity was associated with local deformations and discrete metamorphic retrogression to amphibolite facies. None of them significantly affected the pre-existing regional structure.