Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.     

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

This study investigates the spatial dependence of high and extreme streamflows in Switzerland across different scales. First, using 56 runoff time series from Swiss rivers, we determined the average length of high-streamflow events for different levels of extremeness. Second, a dependence measure that expressed the probability that streamflow peaks would meet or exceed streamflow peaks at a conditioning site was used to describe and map the spatial extent of joint streamflow-peak occurrences across Switzerland. Third, we analysed the spatial patterns of jointly occurring high streamflows using cluster analysis to identify groups that react similarly in terms of flood frequency at different sites. The results indicate that, on a coarse scale, high and extreme streamflows are asymptotically independent in the main Swiss basins. Additionally, mesoscale tributaries in the main basins show distinct flood regions across river systems.     

Towards spatially distributed quantitative assessment of tsunami inundation models

This paper presents a framework and data for spatially distributed assessment of tsunami inundation models. Our associated validation test is based upon the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which affords a uniquely large amount of observational data for events of this kind. Specifically, we use eyewitness accounts to assess onshore flow depths and speeds as well as a detailed inundation survey of Patong City, Thailand to compare modelled and observed inundation. Model predictions matched well the detailed inundation survey as well as altimetry data from the JASON satellite, eyewitness accounts of wave front arrival times and onshore flow speeds. Important buildings and other structures were incorporated into the underlying elevation model and are shown to have a large influence on inundation extent.     

Concentration Fluctuations in Smoke Plumes Released Near the Ground

Near-ground artificial cloud releases in the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer were investigated experimentally by Lidar measurement techniques. Simple scaling relations between the average concentration and the lowest order moments are suggested by simple analytical models, and the experimental results are tested against these hypotheses. We find strong evidence for a simple scaling of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis with the average concentrations at the downwind distances observed in our experiments. Near-ground concentration fluctuations in fixed as well as moving frames of references are investigated. The scaling is supported by data from several experimental sites and different atmospheric stability conditions. One conclusion of the study is that relatively accurate estimates for the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis can be obtained for the concentration fluctuations, given a reliable estimate of the space-time varying average concentration field.     

Geological indications for Palaeogene uplift in the eastern North Sea Basin

The timing and effect of the Cenozoic uplift of Scandinavia has been investigated using a multi-disciplinary approach involving sedimentological, seismic and biostratigraphic data from the Danish and the adjacent Norwegian parts of the North Sea Basin. It is concluded that significant uplift took place periodically throughout the Palaeogene possibly marking an earlier onset of the so-called “Neogene uplift” of Scandinavia. This conclusion is based on a number of sedimentological observations, including smectite content, grain-size variations, kaolinite thermal stabilities and T_max values supported by seismic reflection geometries and biostratigraphic data. These data indicate several phases of re-working of Palaeogene and older sediments situated further to the east and northeast during the middle to late Eocene and during the middle to late Oligocene. The tectonic patterns were similar during the late Paleocene and the Oligocene with some inversion taking place, whereas no inversion has been observed during the Eocene. Main provenance areas were to the north and northeast during the Paleocene and Oligocene, whereas the Eocene sediments originate mainly from the British Isles to the west. It is proposed that Palaeogene uplift of Scandinavia was associated with regional tectonic movements along crustal zones of weakness, which were reactivated as they accommodated strain induced by the Alpine Orogeny and the opening of the North Atlantic.     

Chemical Ozone Loss in the Arctic Winter 1994/95 as Determined by the Match Technique

The chemically induced ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex during the winter 1994/95 has been quantified by coordinated launches of over 1000 ozonesondes from 35 stations within the Match 94/95 campaign. Trajectory calculations, which allow diabatic heating or cooling, were used to trigger the balloon launches so that the ozone concentrations in a large number of air parcels are each measured twice a few days apart. The difference in ozone concentration is calculated for each pair and is interpreted as a change caused by chemistry. The data analysis has been carried out for January to March between 370 K and 600 K potential temperature. Ozone loss along these trajectories occurred exclusively during sunlit periods, and the periods of ozone loss coincided with, but slightly lagged, periods where stratospheric temperatures were low enough for polar stratospheric clouds to exist. Two clearly separated periods of ozone loss show up. Ozone loss rates first peaked in late January with a maximum value of 53 ppbv per day (1.6 % per day) at 475 K and faster losses higher up. Then, in mid-March ozone loss rates at 475 K reached 34 ppbv per day (1.3 % per day), faster losses were observed lower down and no ozone loss was found above 480 K during that period. The ozone loss in hypothetical air parcels with average diabetic descent rates has been integrated to give an accumulated loss through the winter. The most severe depletion of 2.0 ppmv (60 %) took place in air that was at 515 K on 1 January and at 450 K on 20 March. Vertical integration over the levels from 370 K to 600 K gives a column loss rate, which reached a maximum value of 2.7 Dobson Units per day in mid-March. The accumulated column loss between 1 January and 31 March was found to be 127 DU (36 %).     

Similarity Scaling Of Surface-Released Smoke Plumes

Concentration fluctuation data from surface-layer released smokeplumes have been investigated with the purpose of finding suitable scaling parametersfor the corresponding two-particle, relative diffusion process.Dispersion properties have been measured at downwind ranges between 0.1 and 1 km from a continuous, neutrally buoyant ground level source. A combinationof SF₆ and chemical smoke (aerosols) was used as tracer. Instantaneous crosswind concentration profiles of high temporal (up to 55 Hz) and spatialresolution (down to 0.375 m) were obtained from aerosol-backscatter Lidar detectionin combination with simultaneous gas chromatograph (SF₆) reference measurements. The database includes detailed crosswind concentration fluctuation measurements. Each experiment, typically of 1/2-hour duration, containsplume mean and variance concentration profiles, intermittency profiles andexceedence and duration statistics. The diffusion experiments were accompanied by detailed in-situ micrometeorological mean and turbulence measurements. In this paper, a new distance-neighbour function for surface-released smoke plumes is proposed, accompanied by experimental evidence in its support. The new distance-neighbour function is found to scale with the surface-layer friction velocity,and not with the inertial subrange dissipation rate, over the range of distance-neighbour separations considered.     

Younger Dryas Glaciation in Söderåsen, South Sweden: An Analysis of Meteorologic and Topographic Controls

In Söderåsen, South Sweden, various geomorphological investigations indicate that small, local glaciers were initiated at very low altitudes within the Skäralid rock canyon during the Younger Dryas period. Wind polish on boulders indicates that this period was characterised by easterly winds and drifting snow. Some new field observations are presented and the Söderåsen Younger Dryas reglaciation hypothesis is tested by means of empirical knowledge on glacier equilibrium line climate and an analytic geographical information system (GIS) experiment. The GIS analysis demonstrates that the deeply incised rock canyon represents a pronounced radiation shelter, while the empirical analysis emphasises the importance of strong snow drift from the east during the winter. Together, the two analyses indicate that the inferred Söderåsen Younger Dryas reglaciation is possible from a palaeoclimatic point of view, although conditions for glaciation may have been marginal to those of rock glacier initiation.