Implicit integration in soil plasticity under mixed control for drained and undrained response

An algorithm is outlined for the implicit integration of isotropic plasticity models for an arbitrary choice of mixed stress and strain control variables. Drained as well as undrained behaviour is considered. The closest-point-projection method in conjunction with a completely strain-driven format is used in a core algorithm. In the drained case strain response variables are determined via iterations to satisfy equilibrium of prescribed and calculated stresses that correspond to the strain response variables. In the undrained case, on the other hand, strains and pore pressure are determined via simultaneous iterations to satisfy equilibrium and the incompressibility condition. The algorithm is applied to a new generalized cam-clay model, and various iteration techniques are assessed. In particular, Newton iterations which employ the matrix of algorithmic tangent stiffness moduli are shown to compete favourably with more conventional methods.     

Testing 100-Year Global Warming Potentials: Impacts on Compliance Costs and Abatement Profile

The comprehensive approach adopted in the Kyoto Protocol relies on the use of 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert emissions of various gases to `carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) equivalents'. This particular set of weights, or metric, has a limited capacity to handle the large variations in atmospheric adjustment times, and emissions of various gases that are equal in terms of `CO₂ equivalents' will not result in equal climatic effects. In this study, the 100-year GWP metric is assessed in the context of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Using data from Norway, we explore how abatement policy formulated on the basis of 100-year GWPs compares to policies based on other metrics in terms of compliance costs and abatement profile, that is, the composition of the basket of gases reduced. We found that the costs for Norway change significantly when other metrics are used, but changes in the composition of the basket of gases are moderate. However, since compliance costs can be controlled through other mechanisms for post-Kyoto Protocols, the use of 100-year GWPs versus other metrics has little impact on the general formulation of Norwegian climate policy.     

Slow drift oscillations of a ship in irregular waves

A procedure to calculate horizontal slow drift excitation forces on an infinitely long horizontal cylinder in irregular beam sea waves is presented. The hydrodynamic boundary-value problem is solved correctly to second order in wave amplitude. Results in the form of second order transfer functions are presented for different two-dimensional shapes. It is concluded that Newman's approximative method is a practical way to calculate slow drift excitation forces on a ship in beam sea and suggested that it may be used in a more general case. Applications of the results for moored ships are discussed.     

Robust simulation of sharp-interface models for fast estimation of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> trapping capacity in large-scale aquifer systems

Modeling geological carbon storage represents a new and substantial challenge for the subsurface geosciences. To increase understanding and make good engineering decisions, containment processes and large-scale storage operations must be simulated in a thousand-year perspective. Large differences in spatial and temporal scales make it prohibitively expensive to compute the fate of injected CO₂ using traditional 3D simulators. Instead, accurate forecast can be computed using simplified models that are adapted to the specific setting of the bouyancy-driven migration of the light fluid phase. This paper presents a family of vertically integrated models for studying the combined large-scale and long-term effects of structural, residual, and solubility trapping of CO₂. The models are based on an assumption of a sharp interface separating CO₂ and brine and can provide a detailed inventory of the injected CO₂ volumes over periods of thousands of years within reasonable computational time. To be compatible with simulation tools used in industry, the models are formulated in a black-oil framework. The models are implemented in MRST-co2lab, which is an open community software developed especially to study and optimize large-scale, long-term geological storage of CO₂. The resulting simulators are fully implicit and handle input from standard geomodeling tools.     

Late Quaternary sediments and stratigraphy on the continental shelf off Troms and west Finnmark, northern Norway

Lithologic, paleontologic, and chronostratigraphic investigation of 13 gravity cores indicates the following environmental evolution: a high- (mid-) arctic period with a slight influx of ice-rafted debris occurred during the early middle Weichselian followed by a mid- (high-) arctic environment with a high influx of iceberg-rafted debris during the remainder of the middle Weichselian. The continental ice sheet probably did not extend beyond the inner shelf during middle Weichselian and a minimum relative sea level was ca. −120 m. A low-arctic environment occurred during (parts of) the late Weichselian with an initial winnowing of the sediments. The Norwegian Current entered the area during this substage. A high- (mid-) boreal environment occurred during the Holocene with high winnowing activity in the early Holocene. Winnowing is still very active on the shallower banks in contrast to the deeper banks where it has ceased. Relatively high percentages of carbonate in the form of biogenic skeletal remains occur in the Holocene sediments.     

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.     

Metrics of Climate Change: Assessing Radiative Forcing and Emission Indices

In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and global warming potentials (GWPs), in terms of their scientific performance. Radiative forcing is assessed in terms of questions such as the utility of the concept, uncertainties and sensitivity to key assumptions. The assessment of emission indices focuses on the climate and other resulting impacts (end points) against which emissions are weighted; the extent to which (and how) time dependence is included, with regard to both emission control and impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken into account in the further development of refined metrics of climate change.     

Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

The climate changes that occured following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines on 15 June 1991 have been simulated using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model （AGCM）. The model was forced by a reconstructed spatial-time distribution of stratospheric aerosols intended for use in long climate simulations. Four statistical ensembles of the AGCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols over a period of 5 years following the eruption have been made, and the calculated fields have been compared to available observations. The model is able to reproduce some of the observed features after the eruption, such as the winter warming pattern that was observed over the Northern Hemisphere （NH） during the following winters. This pattern was caused by an enhanced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere that developed due to aerosol heating of the tropics. This in turn led to a strengthening of the polar vortex, which tends to modulate the planetary wave field in such a way that an anomalously positive Arctic Oscillation pattern is produced in the troposphere and at the surface, favouring warm conditions over the NH. During the summer, the model produced a more uniform cooling over the NH.     

一个淡水扰动试验中垂直混合对于北大西洋经圈环流的影响

It has been reported recently that the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) using the coupled Bergen climate model(BCM) showed initial intensity declines followed by gradual recoveries over a 150-year enhanced freshwater input experiment.Stratification-dependent oceanic diapycnal mixing has been hypothesized as a reason for the simulated recovery of the AMOC.This study investigated the role of diapycnal mixing in transient responses of simulated AMOCs.Our results showed that stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing can cause stronger upwelling of deep water in the tropical Atlantic than that produced under conditions of fixed diapycnal mixing.Moreover,simulated AMOCs were more sensitive to active stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing than fixed mixing.However,stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing cannot be conclusively singled out as the critical cause of the recoveries of simulated AMOCs under enhanced-freshwater inputs.