Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Simulating the 1999 Capbreton canyon turbidity current with a Cellular Automata model

A numerical model has been developed for the simulation of turbidity currents driven by nonuniform, non cohesive sediment and flowing over a complex three dimensional submarine topography. The model is based on an alternative approach known as Cellular Automata paradigm. The model is validated by comparing a simulation with a reported field-scale event. The chosen case is a turbidity current which occurred in Capbreton Canyon and was initiated by a storm in December 1999. Using data from recent oceanographic cruises, the deposit of the event has been precisely described, which constrain values of model parameters. The model simulates the 1999 turbidity current over the actual canyon topography and related turbidite using three different types of particle. The model successfully simulates areas of erosion and deposition in the canyon. It predicts the vertical and longitudinal grain size evolution, and shows that the fining-up sequence can be deposited by several phases of deposition and erosion related to the current energetic variation during its evolution. This result could explain the presence of intrabed contacts or the frequent lack of facies in Bouma sequences.     

A new interpretation of terraces in the Taranto Gulf: the role of extensional faulting

The Taranto Gulf of southern Italy provides an excellent case where it is possible to document the importance of normal faults in displacing terraced deposits. The study area is located at the front of the southern Apennines, that is a fold-and-thrust belt developed following the closure of the Mesozoic Tethys Ocean, and the deformation of the Adriatic passive margin during Tertiary and Quaternary times. The outer, eastern parts of the belt were structured in Quaternary, i.e. up to Middle Pleistocene times.The front of the chain is partially sealed by Pliocene–Pleistocene foredeep deposits, which represent the infill of the Bradanic Trough. The upper portion of the middle Pleistocene succession consists of marine sands and conglomerates that in the previous literature have been arranged in several orders of terraces. Analysis of aerial photographs and geomorphological mapping has shown the occurrence of prominent geomorphic lineaments, which appear to control the local drainage pattern. Some of these structures coincide with the map trace of normal faults that produce vertical offsets of the marine terrace surfaces in the order of ca. 10 m each. Many of the fault escarpments reduce their elevation and terminate laterally. In other cases fault escarpments are laterally continuous and can be traced for up to 3–4 km. Scarp height is between 2 and 10 m. Their mean trend ranges from NNE–SSW to ENE–WSW and defines an arcuate pattern that mimics the present coastline.An accurate geomorphological, sedimentological and stratigraphic analysis has been carried out in a selected area of the Bradanic Trough (Pisticci transect) to investigate in detail the relationships between normal faults and the development of the terraces. This analysis allowed us to recognise five facies associations related to the upper and lower beachface and to the neritic clays which represent the substratum of the terraces. More importantly, we observed that all the terraced deposits in the Pisticci transect could be referred to a single sedimentary body displaced by faults. The terraced deposits are related to an event of beach progradation, of Middle Pleistocene age, which has been documented in other areas of the Italian peninsula. These results outline an intimate relationship between the arcuate trend of the recognised fault set and the present coastline pattern. The development of the normal faults can be related to large-scale gravitational processes developed after the general tilting towards the SE of the Bradanic Trough.     

Coastal processes and cliff recession between Gabicce and Pesaro (northern Adriatic Sea): a case history

Cliff recession on the high rocky coast between Gabicce and Pesaro Adriatic sea causes a wide range of mass movement processes on the whole slope, affecting both the bedrock and the overburden. The outcropping late Miocene rock formations are represented by marls, marly limestones, dark laminated mudstones and bedded sandstones and marls. Mass movements are common because of stratification and discontinuities in the rocks that, together with the presence of groundwater and weathering processes, reduce the overall strength of the slopes. A model for the evolution of this coastal area is proposed, which involves cyclic basal erosion, followed by mass movement that favours debris accumulation at the base of the cliff. The longshore currents have to then remove the material before a new cycle can begin.     

Interannual variation of Gulf Stream heat transport in a high-resolution model forced by reanalysis data

The variability present in a 1/6th degree Atlantic ocean simulation forced by analysed wind stress and heat flux over a 20-year period is investigated by means of heat transport diagnostics. A section is defined which follows the Gulf Stream and its seaward extension, and transport of heat across this section is analysed to reveal the physical mechanisms responsible for intergyre heat exchanges on a variety of time scales. Heat transport across another section that crosses the Gulf Stream is also diagnosed to reveal the temporal behaviour of the gyre circulation. The Ekman response to wind stress variations accounts for the annual cycle and much of the interannual variability in both measures. For the intergyre heat transports, cancellation by transient-mean flow terms leads to a very weak annual cycle. Transient eddies account for approximately half the total intergyre transport of 0.7 Petawatts. They also account for a significant fraction of the interannual variability, but separate experiments with repeated-annual-cycle forcing indicate that the transient eddy component of the heat transport variability is internally generated. Links between the intergyre transport, the wind-driven gyre circulation, the surface heat budget and the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation are discussed.     

Possibilities to detect trends in spectral UV irradiance

Summary It is investigated how long-term UV trends can be assessed by analysing the longest time series of measured spectral UV irradiance in Europe, which have been started in the early 1990s in Thessaloniki, Greece and Sodankylä, Finland. It can be concluded that both time series do not yet show an unambiguous yearly trend in UV irradiance. The regression lines show no uniform behaviour and vary irregularly in strength and from one solar zenith angle to the next if all sky conditions are analysed. It is emphasised that these findings do not disagree with previous studies, that significant changes in UV irradiance have been observed over Europe especially in spring.Our study introduces a new method to estimate the required time series length for trend detection using the measured time series in combination with model calculations. At Sodankylä, a reduction of the total ozone column of –5.7% per decade has been observed from 1979 to 1998. A positive UV trend due to such conditions may be detected after 12 years at the earliest. For Thessalonki, a decrease in total ozone of –4.5% per decade has been observed. A corresponding increase of UV irradiance should be detectable after 15 years. It should be noted that a constant ozone trend over the whole period had to be assumed for this analysis.Since 1990 there has been a considerable variability of total ozone, but no steady decrease could be observed. Consequently, no general UV increase could be expected due to ozone changes. Even if there was a constant ozone trend over that period it is shown that even the longest European time series of UV irradiance are still too short to show distinct trends. However, this does not imply that no changes have occurred, it only shows that the large natural variability of UV irradiance has so far hindered the identification of unambiguous trends. The only way to find significant and consistent UV trends is the continuation of high-quality long-term measurements of spectral UV irradiance.     

Linking the northern hemisphere sea-ice reduction trend and the quasi-decadal arctic sea-ice oscillation

The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend.