Effect of shipping activity on warming trends in the Canadian Arctic

This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018. Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic. Temperature, sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated, and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade) of the average temperature, considering winter(January) and summer(July) seasons. The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region. Significant warming trend was observed during July, with an increase of up to 1℃, for the Canadian Arctic region. Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes. The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice. Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic, and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region. The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.     

Prediction of riverine suspended sediment discharge using fuzzy logic algorithms, and some implications for estuarine settings

The ability of fuzzy logic algorithms to model relationships between stream flow and suspended sediment discharge was investigated using daily measurements of stream flow and suspended sediment discharge for the Escanaba River mouth station, situated on the shore of Lake Michigan and operated by the US Geological Survey. Three different configurations of inputs were applied, whereby the inputs were fuzzified into fuzzy subsets of variables by means of triangular membership functions. The relationships between inputs and suspended sediment discharge (output) were represented by a set of fuzzy rule expressed in IF–THEN format. The weighted average method served for defuzzification. The commonly used sediment rating curve was also applied to the data, and its performance compared with that of the three models by means of statistical analyses. For all three models, suspended sediment discharge predicted by the fuzzy logic algorithm was in satisfactory agreement with observations. Furthermore, the fuzzy logic algorithms performed better than the sediment rating curve, particularly at higher rates of suspended sediment discharge (in this study, more than 50  × 10⁶ g/day). Considered collectively, the use of fuzzy logic algorithms is suggested as a simple and effective approach for better prediction of suspended sediment discharge, also for estuaries.     

Using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for finding the best rainfall-runoff model in mountainous watersheds(Case study: the Navrood watershed in Iran)

In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.     

New calculations of interstellar dust (ID) contraction in a non-isothermal regime

We have calculated the opacity as resulting from different interstellar grain models, molecules, atoms, and ions. The resulting opacities have been applied to a numerical code used to follow the thermal evolution of a contracting cloud in one dimension. An exact analytical and computational developments of both Mie theory for isolated grains and Güttler's formulae for composite grain models have been used to calculate the extinction coefficients. We have studied two models of composite grain and three models of isolated grain. The opacity of interstellar grains has been calculated in the temperature range 10–1500 K. The molecular opacity is splitted into continuous and line opacities. The different sources of continuous opacity have been studied. The line opacity has also been included. The atomic opacities are also considered. The hydrodynamical equations are solved explicitly but the energy and Poisson equations are solved implicitly.It has been found that the thermal evolution during contraction of protostellar clouds is sensitive to both: the assumed grain models and the considered chemical composition. A cloud of an initial temperature of 10 K collapsed to a stage in which the temperature increases to 91 000 K and the density reached to 0.16 g cm^–3.     

巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面近地层湍流强度和陆面过程特征

利用巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面2013年7、10月和2014年1、4月的湍流通量资料,计算并分析了研究区近地层湍流强度,同时针对风速分量、温度、水汽和CO₂归一化标准差随稳定度的变化关系和总体输送系数等陆面过程特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）风速各分量的湍流强度均随风速的增加逐渐减小,风速处于2 m·s^-1以下时湍流发展最为旺盛。湍流强度主要由水平方向风速分量决定,垂直方向风速的作用较小,且近中性和不稳定层结利于湍流的发展。与其他地区相比,平坦且没有建筑物的沙漠地区,机械湍流较弱,湍流强度相应较小。（2）风速各分量的归一化标准差与稳定度（z/L）均满足1/3次方函数规律,其中垂直方向风速分量的拟合曲线方程较好。（3）动量输送系数C_d具有明显的夏季高、冬季低的变化状态且各月的日变化形态均呈夜间低、日间高的循环形态。热量输送系数C_h的不同月份日变化间并没有明显的排列次序,且日出日落前后具有明显的波动。不稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随风速的增加逐渐减小;稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随着风速的增加逐渐上升。     

On the fairing of resistance test data: A software-based approach

A fairing method is presented for giving a good representation of ship model resistance test data, which in general tend to exhibit a scattered trend and need to be smoothed appropriately. One component of the test data originates from the frictional resistance and can be formulated smoothly. The second component is the wave resistance which exhibits a specific harmonic character with peaks and troughs. In this method, this component is modelled using suitable harmonic cosine terms for obtaining the best representation of the corresponding resistance data. The performance of the method is then tested on two example cases, using the characteristic parameters of the sample data as input during the smoothing process.     

Fluid-pressure variations and fault creep in central California

Observations of the change of water level in wells near the San Andreas fault in centra California indicate that there are pore-pressure changes associated with the process of fault creep. The sense of water-level and pore-pressure changes may indicate the direction of creep propagation.     

Experimental Evaluation of A New Developed Algorithm for An Autonomous Surface Vehicle and Comparison with Simulink Results

China Ocean Engineering - Performing repeatable duties automatically was the dreams of human being for centuries. Although full autonomy has long been dreamed of by visionaries, many researches...