长江三角洲南部“大城市圈振兴”理论的质疑

工业发展和城市化的传统理论，对亚洲的某些具有较高生产力水平，且还在发展中的“大城市圈”不能充分地解释，本文对长江三角洲南部空间经济转为的“大城市圈振兴”理论进行了批判地评论，根据最新的现场调查结果，从根本上对“转为过程”的假说提出质疑，并且提出了更适当的的区域发展战略，此外还证明，关于亚洲大城市带的一般结论，必须建立在对地方性经济变革认识的基础之上。     

Testing for quantized redshifts. I. The project

A project intended to examine the long-standing claims that extragalactic redshifts are periodic or quantized was initiated some years ago at the Royal Observatory, Edinburgh. The approach taken is outlined, and the main conclusions to date are summarized. The existence of a galactocentric redshift quantization is confirmed at a high confidence level.     

The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows

Abstract

The term “environmental flows” is now widely used to reflect the hydrological regime required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems, and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on them. The definition suggests a central role for ecohydrological science to help determine a required flow regime for a target ecosystem condition. Indeed, many countries have established laws and policies to implement environmental flows with the expectation that science can deliver the answers. This article provides an overview of recent developments and applications of environmental flows on six continents to explore the changing role of ecohydrological sciences, recognizing its limitations and the emerging needs of society, water resource managers and policy makers. Science has responded with new methods to link hydrology to ecosystem status, but these have also raised fundamental questions that go beyond ecohydrology, such as who decides on the target condition of the ecosystem? Some environmental flow methods are based on the natural flow paradigm, which assumes the desired regime is the natural “unmodified” condition. However, this may be unrealistic where flow regimes have been altered for many centuries and are likely to change with future climate change. Ecosystems are dynamic, so the adoption of environmental flows needs to have a similar dynamic basis. Furthermore, methodological developments have been made in two directions: first, broad-scale hydrological analysis of flow regimes (assuming ecological relevance of hydrograph components) and, second, analysis of ecological impacts of more than one stressor (e.g. flow, morphology, water quality). All methods retain a degree of uncertainty, which translates into risks, and raises questions regarding trust between scientists and the public. Communication between scientists, social scientists, practitioners, policy makers and the public is thus becoming as important as the quality of the science.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Acreman, M.C., Overton, I.C., King, J., Wood, P., Cowx, I.G., Dunbar, M.J., Kendy, E., and Young, W., 2014. The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 433–450     

High‐temporal resolution fluvial sediment source fingerprinting with uncertainty: a Bayesian approach

This contribution addresses two developing areas of sediment fingerprinting research. Specifically, how to improve the temporal resolution of source apportionment estimates whilst minimizing analytical costs and, secondly, how to consistently quantify all perceived uncertainties associated with the sediment mixing model procedure. This first matter is tackled by using direct X‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRFS) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) analyses of suspended particulate matter (SPM) covered filter papers in conjunction with automatic water samplers. This method enables SPM geochemistry to be quickly, accurately, inexpensively and non‐destructively monitored at high‐temporal resolution throughout the progression of numerous precipitation events. We then employed a Bayesian mixing model procedure to provide full characterization of spatial geochemical variability, instrument precision and residual error to yield a realistic and coherent assessment of the uncertainties associated with source apportionment estimates. Applying these methods to SPM data from the River Wensum catchment, UK, we have been able to apportion, with uncertainty, sediment contributions from eroding arable topsoils, damaged road verges and combined subsurface channel bank and agricultural field drain sources at 60‐ and 120‐minute resolution for the duration of five precipitation events. The results presented here demonstrate how combining Bayesian mixing models with the direct spectroscopic analysis of SPM‐covered filter papers can produce high‐temporal resolution source apportionment estimates that can assist with the appropriate targeting of sediment pollution mitigation measures at a catchment level. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Microseismicity and tectonics of Sinai

Five microearthquake seismographs were used at 11 sites in northern Sinai in the period February 1987 to February 1988 to study the microseismicity of the area around the Maghara coal mine for mine-development studies. A total of 270 events were recorded on 850 records. The magnitude, epicenter and depth of each event were calculated using suitable software for an Egyptian Geological Survey and Mining Authority's (EGSMA) XT computer. The interpretation of the seismic activity in the area is given in view of plate tectonics, the Sinai subplate boundary follows the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea. The plate and subplate boundaries are presently active, and there seems to be a diffuse zone of deformation between “NW Africa” and “Nubia” affecting the Cairo-Suez district.     

Evaluation of sampling devices for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surface microlayer coastal waters

The sea surface microlayer (SML) may play an important role on the transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment. In order to evaluate the appropriateness of a number of sampling devices for the analysis of 14 parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (3-5 aromatic rings), marine SML waters were sampled using a glass plate, a rotating drum/roller, a metal screen and a surface slick sampler. The underlying waters were also sampled for the determination of the corresponding enrichment factors (EF = [C](microlayer)/[C](underlying water)). The EFs were phase dependent, ranging from 1 to 3 for the dissolved phase and between 4 and 7 for the particulate phase. In order to better assess the performance of the different sampling methods, in terms of phase partitioning, the truly dissolved and colloidal phases were also estimated. Generally, no significant differences were found for the enrichment factors provided by the different methods, due to the observed large variability in concentrations that can be attributed to small-scale coastal processes. However, the metal screen is recommended as the most efficient sampling method for the study of PAHs taking into account the amount of water collected versus time.     

Effect of seabed instability on fixed offshore platforms

Storms, hurricanes, and earthquakes may cause seabed instability, especially if the seabed is weak. The seabed instability, manifested in movement of soil layers, exerts lateral forces that may cause large stresses in offshore foundations. The induced stresses may compromise the stability of the foundation and supported structure. The effect of seabed instability on a fixed offshore structure is examined in this study. The method used accounts for soil nonlinearity, dynamic soil resistance, and pile–soil–pile interaction within the stable soil layer. Dynamic p–y curves, dynamic t–z curves and q–z curves have been used to simulate the soil resistance in the lateral and axial directions. The effect of different parameters that influence the response of offshore structures to seabed instability is evaluated. The parameters considered include the value of soil movement, the sliding layer depth, the wave loading, the pile flexibility, the soil movement profile, and the axial loading at the pile head. The response predicted using the proposed analysis compared well with that calculated using a boundary element solution for a case history of a failed offshore platform.     

Defining the geochemical baseline: a case of Hong Kong soils

A geochemical baseline provides the means to distinguish between the pedogenic origin and the anthropogenic origin of the trace element in the environmental compartments. We collected 271 soil samples representative of different parent rocks and soil types from the whole territory of Hong Kong and analyzed the composition of clay mineralogy and the contents of 15 chemical elements (Fe, Cd, As, etc.) for these samples. The baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The result indicated that Fe was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among the five potential reference elements (Fe, Al, Sc, Ti, and Mn), followed by Sc and Ti. A poor correlation was found between Sc, Ti, and Cu. The predicted baseline was much lower than the A-value of the Dutch List used usually in screening the polluted soil of Hong Kong, implying that the extent of heavy metal pollution might have been underestimated with respect to local lands. We also applied the cluster analysis to distinguish the geochemical associations of the trace elements due to its importance to the baseline. Approximately three major associations including the Fe–Mn-oxides related, Al oxides or Al-bearing-clay-mineralogy related and sulfide- related associations were observed from the dendrogram.     

Management of shock loads wastewater produced from water heaters industry

Water heater manufacturing represents one sector of household electrical appliance industry. It includes several batch processes which resulted in a highly polluted wastewater as shock loads. The objective of this study was to manage the shock loads wastewater with a simple and cost-effective approach prior to final discharge into municipality. To achieve this objective, two approaches were studied. The first approach was the chemical treatment of the accumulated shock loads wastewater using alum and an anionic polymer. Although this approach produced a very high-quality effluent, it was economically and technically infeasible. The second approach was a controlled release of the shock loads to the normal daily discharge in a way that guarantees the compliance of the end-off-pipe with the National Regulatory Standards. This solution required establishment of an equalization tank for normal daily flow and a holding tank for controlled release of the shock loads. Mathematical calculations were carried out to determine the most violating parameters in order to calculate the mixing ratio the of shock loads with the normal daily flow. Full engineering design of the proposed solution was carried out. This approach was implemented and proved to be simple, easy to operate, cost-effective and can be replicated in similar batch processing manufacturing plants.     

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.