Tsunami Assessment for Risk Management at Nuclear Power Facilities in Japan

The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.     

Classification of Vertical Wind Speed Profiles Observed Above a Sloping Forest at Nighttime Using the Bulk Richardson Number

Wind speed profiles above a forest canopy relate to scalar exchange between the forest canopy and the atmosphere. Many studies have reported that vertical wind speed profiles above a relatively flat forest can be classified by a stability index developed assuming wind flow above a flat plane. However, can such a stability index be used to classify vertical wind speed profiles observed above a sloping forest at nighttime, where drainage flow often occurs? This paper examines the use of the bulk Richardson number to classify wind speed profiles observed above a sloping forest at nighttime. Wind speed profiles above a sloping forest were classified by the bulk Richardson number Ri _B . Use of Ri _B distinguished between drainage flow, shear flow, and transitional flow from drainage flow to shear flow. These results suggest that Ri _B is useful to interpret nighttime CO₂ and energy fluxes above a sloping forest. Through clear observational evidence, we also show that the reference height should be high enough to avoid drainage-flow effects when calculating Ri _B .     

Nonaxisymmetric instabilities in self-gravitating disks. II. Linear and quasi-linear analyses

We studied global nonaxisymmetric hydrodynamic instabilities in an extensive collection of hot, self-gravitating polytropic disk systems, systems that covered a wide expanse of the parameter space relevant to protostellar and protoplanetary systems. We examined equilibrium disk models varying three parameters: the ratio of the inner to outer equatorial radii, the ratio of star mass to disk mass, and the rotation law exponent q. We took the polytropic index n=1.5 and examined the exponents q=1.5 and 2, and the transitional one q=1.75. For each of these sets of parameters, we examined models with inner to outer radius ratios from 0.1 to 0.75, and star mass to disk mass ratios from 0 to 10³. We numerically calculated the growth rates and oscillation frequencies of low-order nonaxisymmetric disk modes, modes with azimuthal dependence ∝e ^im? . Low-m modes are found to dominate with the character and strength of instability strongly dependent on disk self-gravity. Representatives of each mode type are examined in detail, and torques and mass transport rates are calculated.     

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan

In 2011, Japan was hit by a tsunami that was generated by the greatest earthquake in its history. The first tsunami warning was announced 3 min after the earthquake, as is normal, but failed to estimate the actual tsunami height. Most of the structural countermeasures were not designed for the huge tsunami that was generated by the magnitude M = 9.0 earthquake; as a result, many were destroyed and did not stop the tsunami. These structures included breakwaters, seawalls, water gates, and control forests. In this paper we discuss the performance of these countermeasures, and the mechanisms by which they were damaged; we also discuss damage to residential houses, commercial and public buildings, and evacuation buildings. Some topics regarding tsunami awareness and mitigation are discussed. The failures of structural defenses are a reminder that structural (hard) measures alone were not sufficient to protect people and buildings from a major disaster such as this. These defenses might be able to reduce the impact but should be designed so that they can survive even if the tsunami flows over them. Coastal residents should also understand the function and limit of the hard measures. For this purpose, non-structural (soft) measures, for example experience and awareness, are very important for promoting rapid evacuation in the event of a tsunami. An adequate communication system for tsunami warning messages and more evacuation shelters with evacuation routes in good condition might support a safe evacuation process. The combination of both hard and soft measures is very important for reducing the loss caused by a major tsunami. This tsunami has taught us that natural disasters can occur repeatedly and that their scale is sometimes larger than expected.     

Building damage from the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami: quantitative assessment of influential factors

Based on the classification provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the damage level of buildings impacted by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami can be separated into six levels (from minor damage to washed away). The objective of this paper is to identify the significant predictor variables and the direction of their potential relationship to the damage level in order to create a predicting formula for damage level. This study used the detailed data of damaged buildings in Ishinomaki city, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, collected by MLIT. The explanatory variables tested included the inundation depth, number of floors, structural material, and function of the building. Ordinal regression was applied to model the relationship between the ordinal outcome variable (damage level) and the predictors. The findings indicated that inundation depth, structural material, and function of building were significantly associated with the damage level. In addition to this new type of model, this research provides a valuable insight into the relative influence of different factors on building damage and suggestions that may help to revise the classification of current standards. This study can contribute to academic tsunami research by assessing the contribution of different variables to the observed damage using new approaches based on statistical analysis and regression. Moreover, practical applications of these results include understanding of the predominant factors driving tsunami damage to structures, implementation of the relevant variables into the proposed, or alternative model in order to improve current damage predictions by taking into account not only inundation depth, but also variables such as structural material and function of building.     

Nonaxisymmetric instabilities of self-gravitating disks. I toroids

We perform an extensive linear investigation of the nonaxisymmetric disk modes referred to in the literature as P, I, and J modes in self-gravitating polytropic toroids with power law angular velocity distributions. For selected models, we also follow the development of instability from the linear regime through the quasi-linear regime to deep into the nonlinear regime. We consider modes with azimuthal dependence e ^imφ , where m is an integer and φ is the azimuthal angle. We find that instability sets in through m=2 barlike I modes at T/|W|∼0.16–0.18 depending upon the chosen angular velocity law where T is the rotational kinetic energy and W is the gravitational energy of the toroid. Instability in the barlike I mode peaks in strength around T/|W|=0.22–0.23 after which it weakens, eventually stabilizing around T/|W|∼0.25–0.26. One-armed modes (m=1 modes) become unstable just after instability in the m=2I modes sets in; instability in m=1 modes sets in at T/|W|∼0.19. They dominate the barlike I modes in toroids with T/|W|≳0.25. However, almost immediately after the m=1 mode overtakes the barlike I mode, higher-m J modes appear. J modes with m=2, 3, and 4 become unstable for T/|W|≳0.25–0.26, 0.23–0.25, and 0.25–0.26, respectively. m≥3J modes dominate the m=1 mode in toroids with T/|W|≳0.27. As T/|W| increases further, nonaxisymmetric instability sets in through higher and higher m modes. We find quantitative agreement between the early nonlinear behavior of the tested unstable toroids and our linear results. Quasi-linear modeling suggests that a gravitational self-interaction torque which arises early in the nonlinear regime saturates growth of the mode and leads to significant transport of mass and angular momentum. Neither I mode nor J mode instabilities produce prompt fission in toroids.     

The 2010 European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission proposal

The European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission described in this paper was proposed in December 2010 to ESA as an ‘M-class’ mission under the Cosmic Vision programme. It consists of a single balloon platform floating in the middle of the main convective cloud layer of Venus at an altitude of 55?km, where temperatures and pressures are benign (～25°C and ～0.5 bar). The balloon float lifetime would be at least 10 Earth days, long enough to guarantee at least one full circumnavigation of the planet. This offers an ideal platform for the two main science goals of the mission: study of the current climate through detailed characterization of cloud-level atmosphere, and investigation of the formation and evolution of Venus, through careful measurement of noble gas isotopic abundances. These investigations would provide key data for comparative planetology of terrestrial planets in our solar system and beyond.     

Modelling Microbial Degradation Coupled to Reactive Transport in Groundwater: A Benchmark Analysis

Microbes are ubiquitous in groundwater systems, and they play an important role in the redox state of groundwater and especially on the fate of organic contaminants. In this context, numerical simulations that couple microbial processes to reactive transport models are becoming more popular. In the present work, we revisit the mathematical ground of microbial redox reactions and perform a benchmark analysis of the simulation of aerobic benzene degradation in a shallow and oxidizing aquifer. Numerical results indicate that the two codes tested (one using the finite elements approach and the other using the finite differences approach) lead to very similar results. In addition, the coupling of heterogeneous geochemical reactions to the benchmarked example problem provides a solid basis for the understanding of the redox reactions and the changes on the carbon system triggered by the aerobic degradation of benzene.     

Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides

Given the recent historical disastrous tsunamis and the knowledge that the Arabian Gulf (AG) is tectonically active, this study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards in Kuwait from both submarine earthquakes and subaerial landslides. Despite the low or unknown tsunami risks that impose potential threats to the coastal area’s infrastructures and population of Kuwait, such an investigation is important to sustain the economy and safety of life. This study focused on tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with earthquake magnitudes (M _w ) of 8.3–9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and subaerial landslides with volumes of 0.75–2.0 km³ from six sources along the Iranian coast inside the AG and one source at the Gulf entrance in Oman. The level of tsunami hazards associated with these tsunamigenic sources was evaluated using numerical modeling. Tsunami model was applied to conduct a numerical tsunami simulation and predict tsunami propagation. For landslide sources, a two-layer model was proposed to solve nonlinear longwave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions. Threat level maps along the coasts of the AG and Kuwait were developed to illustrate the impacts of potential tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes of different scales and subaerial landslides at different sources. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data and others were used as bathymetry and topography data for numerical modeling. Earthquakes of M _w 8.3 and M _w 8.6 along the MSZ had low and considerable impacts, respectively, at the Gulf entrance, but negligible impacts on Kuwait. An earthquake of M _w 9.0 had a remarkable impact for the entire Gulf region and generated a maximum tsunami amplitude of up to 0.5 m along the Kuwaiti coastline 12 h after the earthquake. In the case of landslides inside the AG, the majority impact occurred locally near the sources. The landslide source opposite to Kuwait Bay generated the maximum tsunami amplitudes reaching 0.3 m inside Kuwait Bay and 1.8 m along the southern coasts of Kuwait.