Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

An eastward flow at lower middle latitudes derived from a three-layer model of a wind-driven ocean circulation

The steady state wind-driven circulation in an immiscible three-layer ocean bounded only by a meridional east coast and a flat bottom is studied. Particular attention is paid to the occurrence of internal modes of motions in the Sverdrup transports (Sverdrup, 1947). The thicknesses of the upper two layers are of the same order and are allowed to vary up to the same order as the layer thicknesses themselves. Frictional transfer of momentum across the interfaces and the frictional boundary layer at the east coast are neglected. An eastward flow is obtained in the uppermost layer at lower middle latitudes. Though the particular feature in the wind-stress distribution as revealed byYoshida andKidokoro (1967a, 1967b) is not taken into account, the results show good agreement with the observed flow pattern of the Subtropical Countercurrent. Beneath the Subtropical Countercurrent a westward flow is predicted. These flows exhibit an internal mode of motions associated with a subsurface thermal front.     

Effects of a continental slope along the western boundary on the abyssal circulation

To investigate effects of a continental slope along the western boundary on the abyssal circulation, numerical experiments using multi-level models were carried out. An ocean which extends over the northern and southern hemispheres is forced by cooling inside the ocean at the southwest corner of the basin and uniform heating through the sea surface. When the reference density for the cooling is vertically uniform, effects of the slope emerge clearly for the slope with considerably broad width. The deep western boundary current flowing over the slope feeds no bottom flows in the southern hemisphere, and carries the warmed deep water into the northern hemisphere. This leads to the increased meridional density gradient, which results in the modification of deep flow patterns. When the reference density is vertically distributed, the upper and lower northward flowing western boundary currents form in the deep layer. As the density stratification relaxes the topographic control, the westward intensification of the upper boundary current is achieved over the slope. The intensified flow is accompanied by the countercurrent and they form the horizontal recirculation over the slope. However, the effects are confined around the slope region and the interior flow patterns do not change. The lower boundary current is not significantly affected by the slope and has the large width with no countercurrent. It is found that the actual continental slope does not have significant effects on the gross feature of the thermohaline circulation.     

Empirical analysis of path effects on prediction equations of pseudo‐velocity response spectra in northern Japan

We study path effects on prediction equations of pseudo‐velocity response spectra (natural period of 0.1–5.0 s) in northern Japan, where heterogeneous attenuation structure exists. The path effects have been examined by comparing the regression analysis results for two different prediction equations. The first equation consists of a single term of anelastic attenuation conventionally. The second equation consists of two terms of anelastic attenuation in consideration of the heterogeneous attenuation structure. In the second equation, we divide a source‐to‐site distance into two distances at the attenuation boundary beneath the volcanic front. The boundary is considered to separate the relatively high Q fore‐arc side mantle wedge (FAMW) from the low Q back‐arc side mantle wedge (BAMW). Strong motion records (hypocentral distances less than 300 km) from interplate and intraslab events with Mw 5.1–7.3 are used. Regression analysis results show that the standard errors are significantly reduced by the second prediction equation at short periods (0.1–0.5 s), whereas the difference in standard errors from both prediction equations is negligible at intermediate and long periods. The Qs values (quality factor for S‐wave) converted from two anelastic attenuation coefficients for the second prediction equation are remarkably similar to the path‐averaged Qs values for the FAMW and BAMW by other studies using spectral inversion method. From these findings, we conclude that the path effects on the prediction equation of pseudo‐velocity response spectra are satisfactorily accomplished by the second prediction equation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migration of a volcanic front inferred from K–Ar ages of late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in central Japan

K–Ar ages have been determined for 14 late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in the north of the Kanto Mountains, Japan, for tracking the location of the volcanic front through the time. These samples were collected from volcanoes located behind the trench–trench–trench (TTT) triple junction of the Pacific, Philippine Sea, and North American plates. This junction is the site of subduction of slabs of the Pacific and the Philippine Sea plates, both of which are thought to have influenced magmatism in this region. The stratigraphy and K–Ar ages of volcanic rocks in the study area indicate that volcanism occurred between the late Miocene and the Pliocene, and ceased before the Pleistocene. Volcanism in adjacent areas of the southern NE Japan and northern Izu–Bonin arcs also occurred during the Pliocene and ceased at around 3 Ma with the westward migration of the volcanic front, as reported previously. Combining our new age data with the existing data shows that before 3 Ma the volcanic front around the TTT junction was located about 50 km east of the preset‐day volcanic front. We suggest that northward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate slab ended at ～3 Ma as a result of collision between the northern margin of the plate with the surface of the Pacific Plate slab. This collision may have caused a change in the subduction vector of the Philippine Sea Plate from the original north‐directed subduction to the present‐day northwest‐directed subduction. This indicates that the post ～3 Ma westward migration of the volcanic front was a result of this change in plate motion.     

Tsunami Assessment for Risk Management at Nuclear Power Facilities in Japan

The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.     

Studying air pollution with kitt peak solar flux atlas — analysis method and results of observation

For the measurement of atmospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD), Kitt Peak Solar Flux Atlas can be substituted as an extraterrestrial solar radiation. Compared with differential analysis method, the Taylor expansion of integrated transfer equation underestimates the VCD. This underestimation is as large as 35% when the amount of NO2 is 1 × 1017 cm－2 and observation is conducted with an air mass factor of 10. Even when the VCD is 2 × 1016 cm－2 and the air mass factor is 4, the relative error of the retrieved VCD is still no less than 3%. If the observation is restricted under the small air mass factor condition (≤4), with Kitt Peak Solar spectrum as an extraterrestrial solar radiation, only an atmospheric layer of 2 km thick from ground can be studied, which will make the absorption too weak to be detected by normal instruments.The VCD in winter Tokyo area was observed and analyzed by differential method, which shows a good precision even when the absorption is as low as 3%. The largest average VCD was about 1.3 × 1017 cm－2, and the lowest was about 1.3 × 1016 cm－2. The trend of its variation was almost the same as the ground level observation by Saltzman reagent method.     

Correlation study between suspended particulate matter and DOAS data

Continuous data of aerosol optical thickness monitored using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) are correlated with the concentration of ground-measured suspended particulate matter (SPM). A high correlation is found between the DOAS and the ground SPM data, making it possible to calculate the mass extinction efficiency of the aerosols in the atmosphere. It is found that the value of mean mass extinction efficiency (MEE) varies over a range of 2.6–13.7m2 g?1, with smaller and larger values occurring for size distributions dominated by coarse and fine particles, respectively.     

Fine-grained aggregates in L3 chondrites

The textures and chemical compositions of the constituent minerals of the fine-grained aggregates (FGA's) of L3 chondrites were studied by the backscattered electron image technique, electron probe microanalysis, and transmission electron microscopy. Plagioclase and glass in the interstices between fine grains of olivine and pyroxene indicate that the FGA's once partly melted. Compositional zoning and decomposition texture of pyroxenes are similar to those observed in chondrules, indicating a common cooling history of the FGA's and chondrules. Therefore, the mechanism that caused melting of the FGA's is considered to be the same as for chondrules. Bulk compositions of the FGA's are within the range of those of chondrules, so some chondrules probably were produced by complete melting of the same precursor materials as those of the FGA's. The precursor materials must have included fine olivine and other grains that probably are condensates.     

Numerical simulation of the 1992 Flores tsunami: Interpretation of tsunami phenomena in northeastern Flores Island and damage at Babi Island

Numerical analysis of the 1992 Flores Island, Indonesia earthquake tsunami is carried out with the composite fault model consisting of two different slip values. Computed results show good agreement with the measured runup heights in the northeastern part of Flores Island, except for those in the southern shore of Hading Bay and at Riangkroko. The landslides in the southern part of Hading Bay could generate local tsunamis of more than 10 m. The circular-arc slip model proposed in this study for wave generation due to landslides shows better results than the subsidence model, It is, however, difficult to reproduce the tsunami runup height of 26.2 m at Riangkroko, which was extraordinarily high compared to other places. The wave propagation process on a sea bottom with a steep slope, as well as landslides, may be the cause of the amplification of tsunami at Riangkroko. The simulation model demonstrates that the reflected wave along the northeastern shore of Flores Island, accompanying a high hydraulic pressure, could be the main cause of severe damage in the southern coast of Babi Island.