Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.

     

Potential of Oil Palm Trunk Sap as a Novel Inexpensive Renewable Carbon Feedstock for Polyhydroxyalkanoate Biosynthesis and as a Bacterial Growth Medium

Utilization of cheap renewable carbon feedstock for polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production not only brings down its production cost but also ensures sustainability. The scope of this study was to evaluate the potential of sap extracted from felled oil palm trunk (OPT) as a novel inexpensive renewable carbon source for PHA production. OPT sap was found to be nutritionally rich and contained various fermentable sugars (5.5% w/v) as its major constituent. Termite gut isolate, Bacillus megaterium MC1 grew profoundly in mineral medium with OPT sap as carbon source and a cell density of 10.9 g/L was attained after 16 h of cultivation in shake flask cultures. A maximum poly‐3‐hydroxybutyrate [P(3HB)] content (% cell dry weight; CDW) of 30 wt% and a P(3HB) concentration of 3.28 g/L was recorded. Additionally, OPT sap extracted from younger tree trunks with prolonged storage had higher sugar content (10.8% w/v) and, when used as a growth medium without the addition of any nutrients, supported bacterial growth comparable to commercially available media.     

A new approach to develop the Raman carbonaceous material geothermometer for low‐grade metamorphism using peak width

The Raman spectra of carbonaceous material (CM) from 19 metasediment samples collected from six widely separated areas of Southwest Japan and metamorphosed at temperatures from 165 to 655°C show systematic changes with metamorphic temperature that can be classified into four types: low‐grade CM (c. 150–280°C), medium‐grade CM (c. 280–400°C), high‐grade CM (c. 400–650°C), and well‐crystallized graphite (> c. 650°C). The Raman spectra of low‐grade CM exhibit features typical of amorphous carbon, in which several disordered bands (D‐band) appear in the first‐order region. In the Raman spectra of medium‐grade CM, the graphite band (G‐band) can be recognized and several abrupt changes occur in the trends for several band parameters. The observed changes indicate that CM starts to transform from amorphous carbon to crystallized graphite at around 280°C, and this transformation continues until 400°C. The G‐band becomes the most prominent peak at high‐grade CM suggesting that the CM structure is close to that of well‐crystallized graphite. In the highest temperature sample of 655°C, the Raman spectra of CM show a strong G‐band with almost no recognizable D‐band, implying the CM grain is well‐crystallized graphite. In the Raman spectra of low‐ to medium‐grade CM, comparisons of several band parameters with the known metamorphic temperature show inverse correlations between metamorphic temperature and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the D1‐ and D2‐bands. These correlations are calibrated as new Raman CM geothermometers, applicable in the range of c. 150–400°C. Details of the methodology for peak decomposition of Raman spectra from the low to medium temperature range are also discussed with the aim of establishing a robust and user‐friendly geothermometer.     

Characteristics of isolated hybrid tremor (HBT) during a calm activity period at Aso Volcano

Isolated-type tremors having two events with different dominant frequencies are characteristic seismological phenomena observed during the fumarolic activity stage at Aso Volcano. These isolated tremors are called hybrid tremors (HBT) and comprise two parts: an initial part named the “HF-part” with a dominant frequency in the high-frequency region (approximately 10 Hz) and the following part named the “LF-part” with a dominant frequency in the low-frequency region (approximately 2 Hz). The LF-part is observed after the HF-part, and the HBT is accompanied by a long-period tremor (LPT). Hypocenters and source parameters are estimated using seismograms recorded at 64 stations around Nakadake crater. The amplitude distributions of all HF-parts have almost similar trends. Similarly, the amplitude distributions of all LF-parts have almost similar trends. However, the amplitude distributions of HF- and LF-parts are not similar. From these results, we proposed that the hypocenters and source parameters of HF- and LF-parts are not common, but each of them have common hypocenters and source parameters. The hypocenter region of HF-parts was estimated to be just beneath the fumarole region south of the 1st crater: the volume fluctuation is the major source factor. The hypocenter region of LF-parts is estimated to be at a depth of approximately 300 m beneath the first crater: the strike–slip component is the major source parameter. The hypocentral depth of LF-parts is located at the upper end of the crack estimated to be the source of the LPTs. The LPTs and HBTs are observed almost simultaneously. We consider that volcanic fluid is involved in the source mechanisms of both HBT and LPT.     

Inference of sector polarity of the inter-planetary magnetic field from the cosmic ray north-south asymmetry

The sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has been inferred daily for the period 1971–1973, using ground level cosmic ray observations. The method depends on the sectors directed towards and away from the Sun being associated with different characteristic variations of the cosmic ray north-south asymmetry. The analysis has a simple basis. The difference between the north and south daily mean intensities of directional telescopes at a single observing station is determined and its value relative to the 27-day average is calculated. The sign (negative or positive) of the value thus derived corresponds to the sector polarity on a daily basis. Good (~76%) agreement is obtained between the polarities inferred indirectly by the present method and those observed directly with the spacecraft magnetometers. We therefore suggest that cosmic ray observations can be used for inferring the sector polarity of the magnetic field in interplanetary space.     

Occurrence probability of a freak wave in a nonlinear wave field

The Edgeworth’s form of a cumulative expansion of the probability density function (PDF) of surface elevation expands the maximum wave height distribution to predict the occurrence probability of freak waves. This study investigated the enhancement of the occurrence probability of freak waves due to the fourth order moment of surface elevation, kurtosis, change and found that the nonlinear effects on the occurrence probability of a freak wave linearly depends on kurtosis for a small number of waves N=250. The statistical theory was compared with field data, and freak waves sometimes appear when not expected by the Rayleigh theory, but they were predicted by the proposed theory.     

Effects of wave breaking on wave statistics for deep-water random wave train

The experimental studies of the breaking effects on wave statistics for deep-water random waves are presented. It is especially focused on the behavior of kurtosis of surface elevations due to wave breaking. Wave breaking suppresses the maximum limit of kurtosis of the surface elevation, although skewness depends on characteristic wave steepness. The mean instantaneous wave steepness of breaking waves defined using the zero-down-crossing method was much lower than expected from the Stokes waves.     

Biomarkers for endocrine disruptors in three species of Mediterranean large pelagic fish

The hypothesis that Mediterranean top predator species, such as large pelagic fish, are potentially at risk due to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), is investigated. The potential estrogenic effects of PHAHs in three fish species of commercial interest, the top predators bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and Mediterranean spearfish (Tetrapturus belone), were investigated using vitellogenin (Vtg), zona radiata proteins (Zrp) and mixed function oxidases (EROD, BPMO) as diagnostic tools. High induction of Vtg and Zrp was detected by western blot and ELISA techniques in adult males of X. gladius and T. thynnus thynnus, suggesting that these species are at high toxicological risk in the Mediterranean sea. Comparison of BPMO and EROD activities in the three species indicated, both in male and female, much higher MFO activity in bluefin tuna. This data suggests high exposure of this species to lipophilic xenobiotic contaminants in the Mediterranean environment.     

Environmental pollution and bio-politics: The epistemological constitution in Japan’s 1960s

This article examines the epistemological reconstitution in Japan—from Eisei (hygiene) to Kankyo (environment and ecology)—in the 1960s, particularly focusing on Yokkaichi city in the Mie prefecture that was infamous for environmental pollution. Post World War II, Yokkaichi port and its petrochemical industrial complexes were regarded as a symbol of Japan’s development. Referred to as ‘a million dollar night’s view’ for its ability to provide light the entire day, it played a central role in the country’s industrial reconstruction. Due to its reputation for ‘nature’-filled countryside, many enjoyed swimming at Yokkaichi despite the presence of the nearby industrial plants. Both these facts imply that people did not realize the risks posed by the dirtiness of the wastewater and the fumes emitted by the plants, an ignorance that may be traced back to the epistemic constitution of hygiene in Japan at the time. Since modernization, the government had adopted the idea of hygiene to control infectious and venereal diseases. The Department of Interior in 1873, and later, the Ministry of Health and Welfare in 1938 were also instituted to discipline human aesthetics through bio-politics. In the 1960s, when diseases of unknown origins began to appear and ‘scientific’ researches made the risks of wastewater and fumes visible, a new idea, Kankyo (which included but went beyond that of hygiene), was implemented to mitigate these risks. This transition saw the landscape of ‘a million dollar night’s view’ being transformed into a symbol of injustice and became a basis for grassroots political acts.     

Temporal variability of sedimentation rates and mobile fauna inside and outside a gorgonian garden

Paramuricea clavata (Cnidaria, Octocorallia) is an important ecosystem engineer of coralligenous assemblages increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate changes. As climate warming is predicted to continue in the coming years it is important to hypothesize future scenarios. Here we tested the influence of gorgonian colonies on sedimentation rates and vagile fauna trends, comparing sediments collected by traps inside and outside a gorgonian garden, in a coralligenous community of the Western Ligurian Sea, at 32 m depth, over a period of 1 year. The results indicated that sea fans created a sort of homeostatic effect on the surrounding habitat. We found evidence that where gorgonian colonies were present, the monthly fluctuations of sediments rate were lower than outside a garden. Gorgonian colonies also influenced the distribution of the associated vagile fauna; these organisms were generally more abundant inside than outside the garden. The data collected in this work appear to confirm the role of P. clavata as an ecosystem engineer, affecting biomass and variability of the surrounding habitat at both spatial and temporal scales.