The assessment of landslide susceptibility mapping using random forest and decision tree methods in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China

Landslide susceptibility mapping is an indispensable prerequisite for landslide prevention and reduction. At present, research into landslide susceptibility mapping has begun to combine machine learning with remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The random forest model is a new integrated classification method, but its application to landslide susceptibility mapping remains limited. Landslides represent a serious threat to the lives and property of people living in the Zigui–Badong area in the Three Gorges region of China, as well as to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, the geological structure of this region is complex, involving steep mountains and deep valleys. The purpose of the current study is to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Zigui–Badong area using a random forest model, multisource data, GIS, and remote sensing data. In total, 300 pre-existing landslide locations were obtained from a landslide inventory map. These landslides were identified using visual interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images, topographic and geologic data, and extensive field surveys. The occurrence of landslides is closely related to a series of environmental parameters. Topographic, geologic, Landsat-8 image, raining data, and seismic data were used as the primary data sources to extract the geo-environmental factors influencing landslides. Thirty-four layers of causative factors were prepared as predictor variables, which can mainly be categorized as topographic, geological, hydrological, land cover, and environmental trigger parameters. The random forest method is an ensemble classification technique that extends diversity among the classification trees by resampling the data with replacement and randomly changing the predictive variable sets during the different tree induction processes. A random forest model was adopted to calculate the quantitative relationships between the landslide-conditioning factors and the landslide inventory map and then generate a landslide susceptibility map. The analytical results were compared with known landslide locations in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The random forest model has an area ratio of 86.10%. In contrast to the random forest (whole factors, WF), random forest (12 major factors, 12F), decision tree (WF), decision tree (12F), the final result shows that random forest (12F) has a higher prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, the random forest models have higher prediction accuracy than the decision tree model. Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility map was classified into five classes (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high). The results demonstrate that the random forest model achieved a reasonable accuracy in landslide susceptibility mapping. The landslide hazard zone information will be useful for general development planning and landslide risk management.     

Numerical investigation of slippage characteristics of normal and reverse faults under fluid injection and production

Nowadays, a great deal of petroleum geology and engineering projects associated with underground fluid injection and production (FIP) are widely conducted around the world. The FIP engineering may cause complex stress perturbation and trigger seismicity, which have been extensively reported and studied. In this paper, we investigated the fault slippage characteristics influenced by FIP. It reveals that for a fault (normal or reverse) that penetrating through the reservoir into the caprock and underburden, the footwall reservoir is the relatively stable one for fluid injection in a fluid FIP engineering. No matter it is a normal or a reverse fault, injecting fluid into footwall reservoir and producing fluid from the hanging wall reservoir can induce smaller fault slippage. After having determined the better fluid injection–production pattern, we studied the influence of three key factors of fault, i.e., dip, offset and depth, on fault stability. We found that, in our range of study, the influence of single action of fault dip, offset or depth on fault slippage in a FIP engineering was small. However, the influence of the combined effects of the factors may be large. Finally, we studied the effect of different pressure management scenarios on fault responses based on the specific fluid injection–production pattern. The results revealed that appropriate pressure management could effectively reduce fault slippage in a FIP engineering. However, inappropriate pressure management may cause much larger fault slippage. Given these concerns, it is therefore vital that the effect of pressure management scenario to be modeled prior to FIP.     

Crustal structure of the Southwest Subbasin,South China Sea,from wide-angle seismic tomography and seismic reflection imaging

The Southwest Subbasin (SWSB) is an abyssal subbasin in the South China Sea (SCS), with many debates on its neotectonic process and crustal structure. Using two-dimensional seismic tomography in the SWSB, we derived a detailed P-wave velocity model of the basin area and the northern margin. The entire profile is approximately 311-km-long and consists of twelve oceanic bottom seismometers (OBSs). The average thickness of the crust beneath the basin is 5.3 km, and the Moho interface is relatively flat (10–12 km). No high velocity bodies are observed, and only two thin high-velocity structures (~7.3 km/s) in the layer 3 are identified beneath the northern continent-ocean transition (COT) and the extinct spreading center. By analyzing the P-wave velocity model, we believe that the crust of the basin is a typical oceanic crust. Combined with the high resolution multi-channel seismic profile (MCS), we conclude that the profile shows asymmetric structural characteristics in the basin area. The continental margin also shows asymmetric crust between the north and south sides, which may be related to the large scale detachment fault that has developed in the southern margin. The magma supply decreased as the expansion of the SWSB from the east to the west.     

Semiannual velocity variations around the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake fault zone revealed by ambient noise and ACROSS active source data

We continuously monitor the long-term seismic velocity variation of one of the major ruptured faults of the devastating 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in China from July 2009 to January 2012,jointly using accurately controlled routinely operated signal system active source and seismic noise-based monitoring technique.Our measurements show that the temporal velocity change is not homogeneous and highly localized in the damaged fault zone and the adjacent areas.Velocity variations from the active and passive methods are quite consistent,which both are characterized by ±0.2 % seasonal variation,with peak and trough at winter and summer,respectively.The periodic velocity variation within fault zone exhibits remarkably positive correlation with barometric pressure with stress sensitivity in the order of 10-6Pa-1,suggesting that the plausible mechanism might be the crack density variation of the shallow subsurface medium of the damaged fault zone in response to the cyclic barometric pressure loading.     

青藏高原风沙堆积对多年冻土影响研究进展

受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,青藏高原上的土地沙漠化正呈现加速发展态势。沙漠化产生的风沙堆积势必改变地表辐射和能量平衡状况,对较为敏感和脆弱的多年冻土环境造成影响,并可能影响青藏铁路路基的稳定性。因此,研究积沙对多年冻土的影响对于高原沙害防治、多年冻土保护和道路工程建设都具有重要的理论及现实意义。目前,前人已在青藏高原地表能量平衡研究方面取得了一些成果,并开始关注积沙对冻土温度影响问题。然而,由于已有观测资料的连续性、同步性和可比性等局限,对积沙地表辐射和能量平衡方面的研究还比较薄弱,积沙对冻土温度过程影响的研究结果尚不一致,而积沙对路基影响的问题也亟待开展研究。为此,本文提出了加强定位观测、开展室内低温实验以及数值模拟等建议,以期对今后的深入研究起到抛砖引玉作用。     

我国地形变观测预报地震的现状及对地震预测问题的思考

本文展示了我国地形变观测的状况,讨论了以地形变观测预报地震的基本思路及应用情况,探讨了地震预测面临的困难及地形变观测须解决的技术问题。最后,作者认为,地震预报目前或今后很长一段时间都将是以观测为主的试验性科学,物理统计分析方法是研究地震孕育动力学过程或进行预测的最具有潜力的途径之一。     

Geochemical baseline of trace elements in the sediment in Dexing area,South China

A baseline might be used as a point of reference to monitor change from some specific data without concern for whether the baseline determination is natural or has been changed by human activity. We selected 326 sediment samples from Dexing area, South China, and analyzed for 17 chemical elements. The geochemical baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The results indicate Al was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among four potential reference elements (Al, Fe, Ti, and Mn). The baseline value range obtained from the normalization procedure method included both the regional geochemical background of the sediment and the median value of the measured contents. The median value of baselines obtained from relative cumulative frequency method was lower than that obtained from normalization procedure method. In contrast to the geochemical patterns of heavy metals in 1987, the spatial distribution of anomalies sprawled in 2004 in study area, especially for Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Fe, and Cr.     

川滇菱形块体东边界地壳形变研究

根据地质资料和GPS资料。在断层分布密集的地区用模拟断层的位错替代多断层位错,建立了川滇菱形块体东边界的非震位错模型。利用GPS区域网资料．采用改进的蒙特卡罗法和遗传算法,联合反演了川滇菱形块体东边界的活动特性．得到如下认识：1）小江断裂是高应变积累闭锁区,鲜水河断裂次之,安宁河和则木河断裂应变积累程度最低。2）2001～2004年与1999～2001年相比．鲜水河北西段应变积累即锁定程度没有明显变化。南东段略有加强;安宁河略微减弱;则木河没有明显的变化;小江断裂各段的锁定程度均有显著的增强。3）各断裂的运动特点在空间上呈现出分段性。4）边界带的变形主要集中在川滇菱形块体一侧。     

巴西坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地油气分布差异及主控因素

巴西坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地均为典型的被动陆缘盆地。随着勘探程度的增加和近年来在桑托斯盆地深水区盐下油气的重大发现,坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地之间的构造-沉积演化和油气地质特征的差异性越来越明显。通过对坎波斯盆地和桑托斯盆地区域地质特征和油气成藏条件差异性的比较,总结出两个盆地油气分布特征的截然不同。研究表明,盐窗比较发育的坎波斯盆地中已发现的油气主要富集于盐上浊积砂岩,而连续盐岩发育的桑托斯盆地已发现的油气则主要富集于盐下湖相碳酸盐岩。对于盐下层系,连续分布的盐岩和圣保罗高地的发育控制了盐下层系油气的分布;对于盐上层系,盐相关构造的发育则为油气垂向运移提供了有利通道,从而控制了盐上油气藏的形成与分布。