Computer studies of the evolution of planetary and satellite systems I. Description of the program: Preliminary tests

In this paper we describe a CDC-Cyber 74 program for computer simulation of the evolution of a system consisting of a large number of objects in orbit around a central body or primary. Some preliminary tests done with the program will also be described.     

The influence of molecular blends and non-thermal line broadening on the profile of the Zeeman triplet λ5250.22 in sunspots

Calculations of the umbral profile of the Zeeman triplet 5250.22 are presented. We have taken into account the effect of a molecular blend from TiO at 5250.24 causing an apparent -component even for longitudinal magnetic fields. Also included is the depression of the spot continuum due to line wings and veiled weak lines in the umbra spectrum. The effect of different amounts of non-thermal broadening is investigated.The results point to the need of a better theoretical treatment of molecular and atomic blends and to the importance of more reliable values for the non-thermal broadening in sunspots. Furthermore, the importance of a proper stray light correction is noted, particularly including the stray light from the penumbra.     

Estimating runoff from a glacierized catchment using natural tracers in the semi‐arid Andes cordillera

This paper presents a methodology for hydrograph separation in mountain watersheds, which aims at identifying flow sources among ungauged headwater sub‐catchments through a combination of observed streamflow and data on natural tracers including isotope and dissolved solids. Daily summer and bi‐daily spring season water samples obtained at the outlet of the Juncal River Basin in the Andes of Central Chile were analysed for all major ions as well as stable water isotopes, δ¹⁸O and δD. Additionally, various samples from rain, snow, surface streams and exfiltrating subsurface water (springs) were sampled throughout the catchment. A principal component analysis was performed in order to address cross‐correlation in the tracer dataset, reduce the dimensionality of the problem and uncover patterns of variability. Potential sources were identified in a two‐component U‐space that explains 94% of the observed tracer variability at the catchment outlet. Hydrograph separation was performed through an Informative‐Bayesian model. Our results indicate that the Juncal Norte Glacier headwater sub‐catchment contributed at least 50% of summer flows at the Juncal River Basin outlet during the 2011–2012 water year (a hydrologically dry period in the Region), even though it accounts for only 27% of the basin area. Our study confirms the value of combining solute and isotope information for estimating source contributions in complex hydrologic systems, and provides insights regarding experimental design in high‐elevation semi‐arid catchments. The findings of this study can be useful for evaluating modelling studies of the hydrological consequences of the rapid decrease in glacier cover observed in this region, by providing insights into the origin of river water in basins with little hydrometeorological information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon capture and storage, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, and the escape from the fossil-fuel lock-in

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly depicted as an important element of the carbon dioxide mitigation portfolio. However, critics have warned that CCS might lead to “reinforced fossil fuel lock-in”, by perpetuating a fossil fuel based energy provision system. Due to large-scale investments in CCS infrastructure, the fossil fuel based ‘regime’ would be perpetuated to at least the end of this century.In this paper we investigate if and how CCS could help to avoid reinforcing fossil fuel lock-in. First we develop a set of criteria to estimate the degree of technological lock-in. We apply these criteria to assess the lock-in reinforcement effect of adding CCS to the fossil fuel socio-technical regime (FFR).In principle, carbon dioxide could be captured from any carbon dioxide point source. In the practice of present technological innovations, business strategies, and policy developments, CCS is most often coupled to coal power plants. However, there are many point sources of carbon dioxide that are not directly related to coal or even fossil fuels. For instance, many forms of bio-energy or biomass-based processes generate significant streams of carbon dioxide emissions. Capturing this carbon dioxide which was originally sequestered in biomass could lead to negative carbon dioxide emissions.We use the functional approach of technical innovations systems (TIS) to estimate in more detail the strengths of the “niches” CCS and Bio-Energy with CCS (BECCS). We also assess the orientation of the CCS niche towards the FFR and the risk of crowding out BECCS. Next we develop pathways for developing fossil energy carbon capture and storage, BECCS, and combinations of them, using transition pathways concepts. The outcome is that a large-scale BECCS development could be feasible under certain conditions, thus largely avoiding the risk of reinforced fossil fuel lock-in.     

Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey

Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.     

Formation of H2 and CH4 by weathering of olivine at temperatures between 30 and 70°C

Hydrocarbons such as CH4 are known to be formed through the Fischer-Tropsch or Sabatier type reactions in hydrothermal systems usually at temperatures above 100°C. Weathering of olivine is sometimes suggested to account for abiotic formation of CH4 through its redox lowering and water splitting properties. Knowledge about the CH4 and H2 formation processes at low temperatures is important for the research about the origin and cause of early Earth and Martian CH4 and for CO2 sequestration. We have conducted a series of low temperature, long-term weathering experiments in which we have tested the CH4 and H2 formation potential of forsteritic olivine.The results show low temperature CH4 production that is probably influenced by chromite and magnetite as catalysts. Extensive analyses of a potential CH4 source trapped in the crystal structure of the olivine showed no signs of incorporated CH4. Also, the available sources of organic carbon were not enough to support the total amount of CH4 detected in our experiments. There was also a linear relationship between silica release into solution and the net CH4 accumulation into the incubation bottle headspaces suggesting that CH4 formation under these conditions could be a qualitative indicator of olivine dissolution.It is likely that minerals such as magnetite, chromite and other metal-rich minerals found on the olivine surface catalyze the formation of CH4, because of the low temperature of the system. This may expand the range of environments plausible for abiotic CH4 formation both on Earth and on other terrestrial bodies.     

Origin of freshwater and polynya water in the Arctic Ocean halocline in summer 2007

Extremely low summer sea-ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean in 2007 allowed extensive sampling and a wide quasi-synoptic hydrographic and δ¹⁸O dataset could be collected in the Eurasian Basin and the Makarov Basin up to the Alpha Ridge and the East Siberian continental margin. With the aim of determining the origin of freshwater in the halocline, fractions of river water and sea-ice meltwater in the upper 150 m were quantified by a combination of salinity and δ¹⁸O in the Eurasian Basin. Two methods, applying the preformed phosphate concentration (PO^*) and the nitrate-to-phosphate ratio (N/P), were compared to further differentiate the marine fraction into Atlantic and Pacific-derived contributions. While PO^*-based assessments systematically underestimate the contribution of Pacific-derived waters, N/P-based calculations overestimate Pacific-derived waters within the Transpolar Drift due to denitrification in bottom sediments at the Laptev Sea continental margin.Within the Eurasian Basin a west to east oriented front between net melting and production of sea-ice is observed. Outside the Atlantic regime dominated by net sea-ice melting, a pronounced layer influenced by brines released during sea-ice formation is present at about 30–50 m water depth with a maximum over the Lomonosov Ridge. The geographically distinct definition of this maximum demonstrates the rapid release and transport of signals from the shelf regions in discrete pulses within the Transpolar Drift.The ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water is roughly constant within each layer of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The correlation between brine influence and river water reveals two clusters that can be assigned to the two main mechanisms of sea-ice formation within the Arctic Ocean. Over the open ocean or in polynyas at the continental slope where relatively small amounts of river water are found, sea-ice formation results in a linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 32–34. In coastal polynyas in the shallow regions of the Laptev Sea and southern Kara Sea, sea-ice formation transports river water into the shelf’s bottom layer due to the close proximity to the river mouths. This process therefore results in waters that form a second linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 30–32. Our study indicates which layers of the Arctic Ocean halocline are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation in coastal polynyas and which layers are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation over the open ocean. Accordingly we use the ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water to link the maximum in brine influence within the Transpolar Drift with a pulse of shelf waters from the Laptev Sea that was likely released in summer 2005.     

Evaluation of the frequency of skipped spawning in Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Based upon an under-representation of second time spawners on the spawning grounds between 1935 and 1973, researchers have suggested that Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus) frequently skip their second spawning event. In order to evaluate this claim with direct evidence, herring were collected over a period of three years from statutory surveys and commercial catches over a wide area covering the feeding, over-wintering and spawning grounds. The development stage of the ovaries was assessed and the intensity of atresia quantified. Only a negligible number of the analysed herring caught were considered likely to skip spawning, thus this phenomenon does not appear to be a common feature of the NSS herring stock at present. In addition, considering the reproductive strategy of herring, it seems doubtful that skipping the second spawning event has ever frequently occurred in this stock.     

Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area.     

Farside explorer: unique science from a mission to the farside of the moon

Farside Explorer is a proposed Cosmic Vision medium-size mission to the farside of the Moon consisting of two landers and an instrumented relay satellite. The farside of the Moon is a unique scientific platform in that it is shielded from terrestrial radio-frequency interference, it recorded the primary differentiation and evolution of the Moon, it can be continuously monitored from the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point, and there is a complete lack of reflected solar illumination from the Earth. Farside Explorer will exploit these properties and make the first radio-astronomy measurements from the most radio-quiet region of near-Earth space, determine the internal structure and thermal evolution of the Moon, from crust to core, and quantify impact hazards in near-Earth space by the measurement of flashes generated by impact events. The Farside Explorer flight system includes two identical solar-powered landers and a science/telecommunications relay satellite to be placed in a halo orbit about the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point. One lander would explore the largest and oldest recognized impact basin in the Solar System— the South Pole–Aitken basin—and the other would investigate the primordial highlands crust. Radio astronomy, geophysical, and geochemical instruments would be deployed on the surface, and the relay satellite would continuously monitor the surface for impact events.